Virginia Democrats seek full control of statehouse in 2024 bellwether

Virginia Democrats are hoping to achieve full management of the commonwealth’s statehouse throughout subsequent Tuesday’s election, in what could possibly be an indicator of the get together’s power heading into 2024.

Democrats out and in of the state have poured cash into the off-year elections, focusing significantly on the problem of abortion entry. Republicans, alternatively, have zeroed in on crime and the economic system as key points. 

Democrats misplaced their trifecta in Richmond two years in the past when Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) was elected and the GOP gained again management of the Home of Delegates. Nevertheless, Democrats say they really feel optimistic now following a better-than-expected efficiency within the midterm elections final yr. 

The get together’s strategists and operatives additionally level to particular election wins inside and out of doors of Virginia this yr. In January, Virginia Democrats gained the particular election for the seventh state district. A number of Democratic wins adopted that win in particular elections in New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Ohio. 

“The most effective indicator of future elections are elections which have already taken place,” mentioned Abhi Rahman, communications director for the Democratic Legislative Marketing campaign Committee, which is a gaggle devoted to electing Democrats in state-level races. 

“Virginia is a big a part of that. It type of reveals you the place the Democratic message is versus the place the Republican message is,” he mentioned. 

Democrats have touted their candidates this cycle, together with former prosecutor Russett Perry within the thirty first state Senate District, Air Power veteran Michael Feggans in Home District 97 and Maine Corps Veteran Josh Thomas in Home District 21. 

“Within the aggressive races, the Democrats have put up good candidates, some wonderful candidates truly,” mentioned Bob Holsworth, a veteran Virginia political analyst. 

Candidates with prosecutorial and army expertise could possibly be a solution to Republican criticism of Democrats over points like rising crime. 

Probably the most aggressive races of the cycle are situated in Virginia’s inhabitants facilities within the north, in addition to the Richmond and Virginia Seashore areas. Republicans presently management the Home of Delegates, 50 to 46. In the meantime, Democrats maintain a majority within the Senate, 22 to 18. There are 4 open seats up for grabs within the Senate and 5 within the Home. 

Democrats have made abortion entry their prime challenge going into Tuesday’s election. In 2021, Democrats led by former Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) didn’t sway a majority of voters on the problem. However two years later, Democrats level to the urgency surrounding the problem in a post-Roe v. Wade nation. 

Youngkin, who has been a relentless presence on the marketing campaign path, has voiced his assist for a 15-week ban on most abortions with exceptions. Democrats, in flip, have tied down-ballot Republicans to the proposed restrictions. 

“Certainly, that’s entrance and heart,” mentioned Susan Swecker, chairwoman of Virginia’s Democratic Occasion. “However I additionally know that Virginians don’t wish to deliver the MAGA chaos that we now have seen in Congress and most not too long ago with the election of the brand new Speaker of the Home.” 

A number of Virginia Democrats have taken to labeling their Republican opponents as “MAGA extremists,” pointing to points like abortion, schooling and gun management.

“Elementary freedoms are on the road and if Republicans win, they are going to take away your basic freedoms,” Rahman mentioned. “The one factor stopping Glenn Youngkin from doing to Virginia what Ron DeSantis did to Florida is a Democratic Senate proper now and if he will get that trifecta, he’s going to be excessive. He’s going to indicate his true MAGA extremist colours.”

Republicans, in the meantime, argue that they’re specializing in kitchen desk points resonating in native communities, whereas Democrats search to nationalize the state elections. 

“They don’t wish to discuss native points,” mentioned Will Ritter, the CEO of Poolhouse, an company that does media for Youngkin’s PAC. “We’re very a lot centered on native points which can be necessary to folks the place the Democrats have gotten adverts with Marjorie Taylor Greene and attempt to make the most of the speaker challenge.” 

The technique of labeling Republicans as “MAGA extremists” is harking back to McAuliffe’s technique to constantly tie Youngkin to Trump in 2021, regardless of Youngkin by no means publicly campaigning with the previous president through the cycle. 

“I’m reminded of the Youngkin-McAuliffe race and so they determined that Trump was the large challenge and so they had been simply going to hammer, hammer, hammer on that single challenge and we ended up selecting up seats within the Home in that cycle due to their miscalculation,” Ritter mentioned. 

In 2022, Democrats throughout the nation noticed success in portray their Republican opponents as excessive. However the distinction in Virginia in 2023 is that Trump has not been a lot of a presence on the marketing campaign path. As a substitute, Youngkin has inserted himself into races all through the commonwealth to spice up Republicans. 

“Youngkin himself poured in not solely cash however he’s poured his whole soul into this race,” Holsworth mentioned. “It tells you ways excessive the stakes are right here.”

Republicans level to Youngkin’s comparatively excessive approval charges within the state as a cause to be optimistic. A Roanoke School ballot launched in August confirmed the governor with a 51 % approval ranking. His fundraising prowess has been a fine addition as nicely. Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia raised over $7 million within the third quarter of the yr. 

And regardless of Democratic efforts to tie down-ballot Republicans to Youngkin’s abortion stance, Republican candidates are publicly embracing his proposed 15-week ban on the process with exceptions. In Senate District 16, incumbent Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant (R) has touted her expertise working as an OBGYN. Dunnavant responded to her opponent, Del. Schuyler VanValkenburg (D), by portray her as an extremist on abortion in an advert that options folks saying a 15-week ban on the process is cheap. 

“We’re not hiding our heads within the sand,” Ritter mentioned. “In comparison with the extremists on the Democrat aspect…they’ll’t give you any restrict that they’d discover cheap,” he continued, referring to limits on abortion. 

Democrats are urging voters to not belief the Republicans’ message on abortion. 

“They’ll attempt to put lipstick on a pig, but it surely’s nonetheless a pig. A ban is a ban,” Rahman mentioned. “Simply because they’re saying it’s a 15-week ban doesn’t imply that’s what they’re truly going to do.” 

Republicans did acknowledge that it’s a “robust” political surroundings post-Dobbs.  

“That is going to be a take a look at of how broken the Republican model is on this challenge,” Holsworth mentioned. “Can they type of shift to the 15-week ban or does everybody say, ‘Hear it’s a ban and you may’t consider them anyway?’ And that’s what the Democrats are doing in a variety of these races.” 

Democrats are additionally rolling out all of the stops with regards to campaigning. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) is slated to stump for the Democrats within the state on Saturday and former President Obama has recorded robocalls in key Virginia battleground districts. 

And whereas Youngkin has confirmed to be a monetary superpower for Republicans, Democrats have been in a position to maintain their very own money-wise. Democratic state Senate candidates within the state raised over $12 million between Oct. 1 and 26, whereas Republicans raised over $10 million in the identical interval. On the state Home race aspect, Democrats introduced in $14.2 million whereas Republicans raised $8.4 million. 

The fundraising and spending alone is an indicator of how excessive the stakes are for Republicans and Democrats. Each events say they view the elections as a curtain-raiser going into 2024. 

“This isn’t solely the final race of 2023, it’s the primary race of 2024,” Swecker mentioned. “We laid the roadmap for what the panorama goes to appear like throughout the nation subsequent yr. So not solely what sort of commonwealth would you like however what sort of nation would you like?”