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Virginia 7: One other Home Democrat Eyes the Exits
August 3, 2023 · 4:00 PM EDT
Abigail Spanberger’s title has lengthy been on the high of the checklist of Democrats who may run to succeed term-limited Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin in 2025. However Politico’s report that the congresswoman received’t run for re-election in 2024 as she prepares a gubernatorial marketing campaign complicates Democrats’ potential to carry this battleground seat.
With out Spanberger on the poll, Republicans would have an unquestionably higher likelihood at choosing up this seat.
Joe Biden received this seat by 7 factors in 2020, however Youngkin carried it by 5 factors one yr later. The district swung again towards Democrats’ in 2022, when Spanberger defeated Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega by 5 factors (after the Republican made nationwide information for her feedback on abortion).
Even with Spanberger on the poll, the 2024 race was anticipated to be pretty aggressive, although Republicans who spoke with Inside Elections acknowledged that this race wouldn’t have been a precedence.
However Democratic operatives stay cautiously optimistic that they’ll maintain this seat, which nonetheless favors them barely. The seventh leans Democratic by 2.8 factors (50.8 to 48.1 p.c) in accordance with Inside Elections’ Baseline metric, which measures the political lean of a district primarily based on the previous 4 election cycles. And Democrats would like an open seat in a presidential yr to a particular election in an off-year.
Spanberger could be the third Democratic member this yr to go away their aggressive Home seat in a bid for increased workplace, becoming a member of Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Katie Porter. Each congresswomen are working for the Senate this yr, bolstering Republicans’ probabilities of flipping the 2 seats.
Like Slotkin and Porter, Spanberger is thought for her fundraising prowess. Her large struggle chest, coupled along with her reasonable credentials, has made her a tough opponent over the previous two election cycles. Final cycle, she raised greater than $9 million whereas Vega raised $3.7 million.
For the following three months, Virginia politics shall be consumed by the battle for management of the Normal Meeting (Democrats narrowly management the state Senate whereas Republicans have a slim majority within the state Home) — which is why Spanberger isn’t anticipated to announce her 2024 plans till after Nov. 7.
At this level, the congresswoman hasn’t confirmed or denied the information; her spokesperson informed Politico that “Abigail is squarely targeted on the 2023 Normal Meeting races.”
Potential Democratic FieldDemocratic operatives who spoke with Inside Elections anticipate a crowded main. The celebration has a deep bench within the suburbs of Northern Virginia full of politicians wanting to journey the brief distance throughout the Potomac. However till the congresswoman publicizes her 2024 plans, any main machinations will occur behind the scenes. And several other potential candidates are at the moment busy working for Normal Meeting seats.
The obvious potential candidates could be former state Dels. Jennifer Carroll Foy and Hala Ayala — who simply ran in opposition to one another in a bitter main for an open state Senate seat primarily based in Prince William County. Carroll Foy, who was backed by greater than a dozen labor unions, emerged victorious, defeating Ayala by 26 factors. Ayala had the backing of former Govs. Terry McAuliffe and Ralph Northam.
Carroll Foy and Ayala have been a part of a category of Democrats who flipped greater than a dozen state Home seats in 2017, paving the best way for Democrats to take management of the Home in 2019. Each girls additionally ran for statewide workplace in 2021. Carroll Foy got here in second place within the Democratic main for governor, successful almost 20 p.c of the vote. Ayala received the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor and went on to lose to Republican Winsome Sears by 2 factors.
Prince William County is chock-full of different Democrats who may run for the seventh, although none have expertise working in federal or statewide races. One potential candidate is state Sen. Jeremy McPike, who represented Prince William County within the state Senate since 2016 and simply received a aggressive main for the brand new model of his seat. McPike’s main opponent, progressive state Del. Elizabeth Guzman, may additionally run — she misplaced to McPike by simply 50 votes in June.
Candi King, Michelle Maldonado, Briana Sewell, and Danica Roem (who’s at the moment working for state Senate) all symbolize components of Prince William County within the state Home. One other potential candidate could be Prince William County Supervisor Margaret Angela Franklin.
There’s fewer choices in Stafford County, which is on the fringe of Northern Virginia and has turned purple in recent times. Former state Del. Joshua G. Cole, who’s working for a aggressive Home district, and Marine veteran Joel Griffin, who’s working for a aggressive Senate seat, may leap within the congressional race.
Cameron Webb could be one other potential candidate. Although he was the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s fifth District in 2020, he’s initially from Spotsylvania County, which is within the seventh. Webb, a doctor and assistant professor on the College of Virginia, is at the moment a COVID-19 coverage adviser on the White Home.
Whoever Democrats’ nominate might want to ramp up their fundraising shortly due to the condensed timeline. The overwhelming majority of the district is inside Washington D.C.’s media market, one of many costlier markets within the nation.
Potential Republican FieldTwo Republicans are at the moment working for the seventh, however neither are seen as critical candidates. Military veteran Shaliek Tarpley has but to file any fundraising stories with the FEC, and Depth Analytics chief advertising and marketing officer Invoice Moher has raised lower than $10,000 (he additionally loaned himself $340,000).
However Republican operatives in D.C. are hoping that Derrick Anderson, a retired Inexperienced Beret who ran within the GOP main for the seventh final cycle, will run once more. The Spotsylvania County native got here in second place within the crowded main with 24 p.c (Vega received the nomination with simply 29 p.c).
Two different potential candidates are retired U.S. Military Normal Tim Kadavy, who served as the previous director of the Military Nationwide Guard, and retired Navy SEAL Cameron Hamilton. Hamilton is near state Del. Nick Freitas, who misplaced to Spanberger by 2 factors in 2020.
As for Vega herself, she’s working for re-election to her county board of supervisors seat in 2023, and he or she hasn’t commented publicly on whether or not she’d run for Congress once more in 2024.
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