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Through its shortsighted actions, the Biden administration has broken its probability to be an unbiased “mediator” within the peace course of between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Consequently, Washington’s plan to facilitate talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani overseas ministers in January 2024 has failed.
Specific harm to US relations with Azerbaijan was attributable to a report of the USA Fee on Worldwide Spiritual Freedom (USCIRF), which made groundless accusations in opposition to Baku. The USCIRF really useful the State Division embrace Azerbaijan on its Particular Watch Checklist for participating or tolerating extreme violations of spiritual freedom. Former Armenian lobbyist Danielle Ashbahian was concerned in compiling the report, and it had the backing of Iranian-supported Shia extremists, whose purpose is to determine a theocracy in Azerbaijan. Following terror assaults in opposition to the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran in January 2023 and the assassination try in opposition to Azerbaijani MP Fazil Mustafa in Baku, a few of these Shia extremists have been arrested and held legally accountable on sound proof of them working for Iran.
As well as, the report additionally says that Armenian spiritual websites in Azerbaijan are supposedly in peril however fails to carry a single piece of proof to again the declare. The report is combined with politics and makes an attempt to sentence Azerbaijan’s restoration of its sovereignty over the territories previously occupied by Armenia. Nevertheless, the following motion by the State Division so as to add Azerbaijan to the Particular Watch Checklist nations additional strained US-Azerbaijan relations, regardless of the go to of Ambassador O’Brien to Baku and his constructive posts on X (Twitter). This occurred when Washington was attempting to rearrange Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks and appeared to have corrected its mistaken method in direction of Azerbaijan.
What Went Incorrect With the State Division’s Ambiguous “Mediation” Plan?
The shortsighted method by the Biden administration began in 2021 once they took over the White Home. Even though Azerbaijan liberated its lands and adjusted the established order (which had been favoured and supported by the USA, France and Russia throughout the former Minsk Group for many years), the US administration and Secretary of State Blinken’s deputies continued to speak in unrealistic and outdated phrases, fully rejecting the newly created geopolitical realities on the bottom. It was clear following the 2020 Second Karabakh Battle that Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and territorial integrity wouldn’t be compromised. The Armenian minority of Karabakh was given an opportunity to reintegrate into Azerbaijan easily inside 5 years.
This meant that phrases equivalent to “standing” or the Minsk Group mediation format that maintained the earlier established order had been ambiguous and detrimental. Nonetheless, Blinken’s deputy Karen Donfried, US South Caucasus adviser Philip Reeker and the US embassy to Armenia continued to make use of this language. The US place of insisting on the format of the useless Minsk Group, although in 2022 Russia and the West had been in geopolitical wrestle in Ukraine, was additionally an indication of shortsightedness concerning the new realities that had emerged following Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020. The then US ambassador to Yerevan Lynne Tracy stated in official remarks that the so-called standing situation and battle in Karabakh isn’t resolved, whereas the US embassy in Azerbaijan remained silent. This disregarded the geopolitical realities on the bottom, creating stress and sending a message to Azerbaijan that the USA isn’t a dependable “mediator”. It additionally gave false hope to Armenian nationalist circles that they need to proceed their territorial claims. After realising the impossibility of reviving and reusing the outdated Minsk Group geopolitical mechanism, the USA changed or paraphrased the time period “standing”, a legacy of the Minsk Group, with the synonymous “rights and safety of the Karabakh Armenians” and an “worldwide mechanism” to make sure them. As soon as once more, the USA tried to take the identical outdated method by altering “standing” to “ rights and safety” and Minsk Group to an “worldwide mechanism”, which had been unacceptable to Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan repeatedly stated that the Armenian minority ought to reintegrate into Azerbaijani society and get citizenship, and their rights can be ensured based on the Azerbaijani Structure in addition to worldwide commitments that Azerbaijan has taken relating to ethnic minorities on its land.
America has by no means urged or referred to as on Armenia to withdraw its troops from Azerbaijani lands, despite the fact that Armenia’s failure over three years to withdraw its troops from Karabakh as per the joint trilateral assertion and every day unlawful actions by the Armenia- and Russia-backed Armenian irredentists inside Karabakh created a synthetic impediment to peace. Azerbaijan had all the time made it clear that if Armenia wouldn’t adjust to the trilateral settlement and withdraw its forces from Karabakh, Azerbaijan must implement the settlement.
The State Division and Secretary Blinken personally fetishized the difficulty of Armenians with the ability to use Azerbaijan’s Lachin highway with none checks in any respect. This was a blow to Azerbaijan’s sovereign rights to manage its personal borders and curb unlawful weapons transportation and different smuggling from Armenia into Karabakh, additional damaging the US stance as a simply or unbiased mediator within the course of.
When Azerbaijan compelled Armenia’s armed forces and the unlawful irredentist regime to disarm through native anti-terror measures on 19 September 2023, Secretary Blinken as soon as once more condemned Azerbaijan’s proper to conduct an anti-terror operation by itself land and re-establish Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. In a information convention on 22 September 2023, when requested whether or not the USA recognises Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty over Karabakh, Blinken evaded the query. Coupled with the a number of refusals of US embassy officers to go to the liberated Azerbaijani metropolis of Shusha, the USA has assured the entire of Azerbaijani society that it doesn’t respect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, although Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan recognises that sovereignty.
Assistant Secretary for European and Eurasian Affairs, Ambassador James O’Brien additional broken US possibilities as a mediator when he advised US senators that top degree visits to Azerbaijan have been cancelled till a peace settlement is signed. In impact the ambassador was denying Azerbaijan’s inalienable proper as a sovereign nation to place an finish to the gray zone and unlawful armed presence by itself territory. As a matter of reality, Secretary Blinken tried to appropriate the error made by his deputy Ambassador O’Brien by making a name and asking President Aliyev to simply accept him in December. Within the phone dialog, President Aliyev clearly outlined Azerbaijan’s stance and rejected all of the groundless accusations made by Ambassador O’Brien. He stated that Azerbaijan reciprocates the US resolution by refusing excessive degree visits from the US. President Aliyev accepted Blinken’s request that O’Brien be allowed to go to Azerbaijan on the situation that the ban on senior Azerbaijani officers visiting the USA shall be lifted.
America has broken its place within the South Caucasus area by its in poor health suggested and particular interest-driven Armenia-centric insurance policies and actions. Azerbaijan has important regional significance: it supplies the one entry exterior Russian or Iranian management to Central Asia; it’s the one nation bordering each US adversaries Russia and Iran; it performs a key position in containing the expansionist insurance policies of Iran within the South Caucasus; it has a powerful alliance with NATO member Turkey, forming a counterweight within the area to the malign Russia-Iran actions; it has a significant strategic position in Europe’s vitality safety; it has a powerful strategic partnership with Israel, and performs an vital position within the East-West, Center Hall. All these components must be taken under consideration. Armenia, which is effectively built-in into the Russia-led political/navy and financial establishments, can’t be an alternative choice to Azerbaijan in Washington’s regional insurance policies. America ought to, due to this fact, rethink its coverage approaches and proper its strategic errors.
The US view of the South Caucasus as a geopolitical playground for an extension of the conflict in Ukraine has carried out extra harm to its standing within the area. The concept that the USA needs to expel Russia from the South Caucasus doesn’t bear shut examination. First, Armenia is continuous to assist Russia circumvent sanctions and purchase Western made semiconductor chips through its effectively organised re-export mechanism. Nonetheless, the USA and EU tolerate this and don’t put sanctions on Armenia. Second, the USA is aware of that Russia is within the South Caucasus solely because of Armenia. Russia has two navy bases in Armenia, controls Armenia’s border through its border guards, has an built-in joint air defence and management mechanism, controls the overwhelming majority of the Armenian economic system, supplies pure fuel and electrical energy, runs the Metsamor Nuclear Energy Plant and owns the railways. Armenia is politically, economically and militarily built-in into the Russia-led safety and financial establishments. Nevertheless, the Biden administration mysteriously thinks that it will possibly expel Russia from the area by placing illogical strain on Azerbaijan and Turkey. Earlier than Azerbaijan’s native anti-terrorist operation the US particular consultant Louis Bono and the EU’s consultant for the South Caucasus Toivo Klaar participated in a secret assembly with a Russian official wherein they urged Russia to forestall Azerbaijan from establishing its sovereignty over Karabakh and to violate Azerbaijan’s borders by permitting Armenian/French vans to enter Karabakh.
The Function of the Zangezur Hall in Regional Peace
In 2009 the State Division tried to facilitate the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border through the Zurich agreements with out taking Azerbaijan’s pursuits under consideration and ignoring the position of Azerbaijan within the area. Although Turkey was underneath immense strain from the USA to open its borders and delink the difficulty from the occupation of Azerbaijani land, it refused to take action, dealing a blow to the US plans.
The members of the Obama/Biden administration who are actually main the State Division, equivalent to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, must be conversant in the case. The then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton personally tried and didn’t push by the Zurich Protocols. And right this moment when Azerbaijan has liberated its lands and is the main nation within the South Caucasus, and Turkey has robust strategic autonomy inside NATO, the State Division is but once more failing to know the realities on the bottom; i.e. that the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border is conditional on progress within the peace course of and Armenia’s opening of the Zangezur Hall. (As a part of the trilateral assertion, it’s Armenia’s obligation to implement an unimpeded transport hyperlink between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakchchivan Autonomous Republic of Azerbaijan.) The State Division is repeating its mistake, failing to understand the truth that Turkey-Armenia normalisation is conditional on Armenia’s makes an attempt to succeed in peace and open the Zangezur Hall. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has acknowledged repeatedly that Turkey is not going to normalise relations with Armenia with out Azerbaijan’s blessing and approval.
Armenia has been dragging its ft for over three years, not honouring its obligations and creating tensions within the area. Sadly, the USA is concerned on this, because it unusually sees a chance to inflict a so-called strategic defeat on Russia in Armenia as a part of its broader Ukraine coverage. Nevertheless, this creates a critical menace to peace and stability within the South Caucasus. America ought to abandon its shortsighted method and urge Armenia to OK the opening of the Zangezur Hall for its personal financial improvement, peace, stability and normalisation within the area. The argument that Armenia, inspired by the USA, doesn’t need to permit Russia to make sure the Zangezur Hall’s safety doesn’t bear nearer examination: Russian border guards already management Armenia’s state borders together with, specifically, Armenian’s southern border with Iran alongside which the Zangezur Hall ought to cross. The argument that it’ll constrain Armenia’s sovereignty is ridiculous, since Russia has had a powerful navy presence in Armenia for many years.
In different phrases, if Armenia with the encouragement of the USA needs to expel the Russian navy, then why isn’t Yerevan doing so? Why does Armenia stay a member of the Russia-led navy and financial unions? Does the State Division suppose that this type of absurd geopolitical sport within the area will profit Armenia? America ought to appropriate this harmful geopolitical try to carry the vicious wrestle over Ukraine into the South Caucasus, or no less than maintain it inside Armenia, not on the expense of Azerbaijan’s nationwide pursuits or on its land. Nevertheless a lot Washington tries to blackmail Baku through its European subordinates such because the EU, France and Germany, Azerbaijan is not going to permit it to occur. Azerbaijan didn’t surrender its nationwide pursuits when its lands had been underneath occupation and it’ll not achieve this now both.
Whereas Azerbaijan and Turkey launch development of a railway from Kars to Nakhchivan, and another highway and rail route linking Azerbaijan’s mainland to Nakhchivan with bridges over the Araz River and sections in Iranian territory, Armenia is continuous to squander its alternative to combine into regional commerce and initiatives by the Zangezur Hall. This dangers leaving Armenia as a useless finish nation within the area, bypassed by main regional or worldwide initiatives. James O’Brien famously and arrogantly stated that the US is not going to permit Azerbaijan to construct this route through Iran. He ought to have persuaded Armenia to satisfy its obligation and work on the Zangezur Hall if Washington actually wished the route to not cross through Iran.
How the USA Can Appropriate Its Shortsighted Strategy and Acquire Confidence
As the brand new US Ambassador Mark Libby begins his job in Baku, the USA must reset its relations with Azerbaijan by sending Ambassador Libby to go to the liberated Azerbaijani cities of Shusha and Khankendi. Overtly expressing US assist for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan, defending the rights of the Azerbaijani minority expelled from Armenia and urging the Karabakh Armenian minority to simply accept the Azerbaijani reintegration mechanism would put the US again on observe to be a balanced mediator. As well as, letters by US officers to Azerbaijan’s president or official statements by the US State Division ought to unequivocally and clearly point out robust US assist for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, simply as they do for Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova and funnily sufficient Armenia. President Biden mentions robust US assist for his or her territorial integrity and sovereignty, whereas he by no means mentions US assist for Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, simply its independence and sovereignty.
US officers must cease spreading faux information and concern mongering about an alleged Azerbaijani offensive in opposition to Armenia. They need to cease putting the pursuits of radical Armenian foyer teams equivalent to ANCA over US nationwide pursuits with regards to the South Caucasus. They need to repeal the unjust Part 907 that restricts US support to, and extra not too long ago commerce with, Azerbaijan and is an impediment to US nationwide pursuits within the area. They need to be ready to promote US-made weapons to Azerbaijan, thereby serving to it to strengthen its place vis-a-vis Iran and Russia in addition to worldwide terrorism. In the event that they do that and are prepared to debate subjects of mutual concern in a pleasant surroundings, the US can enhance its place within the South Caucasus and enhance its ties with Azerbaijan.
[Photo by the White House, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His analysis space covers the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed on this article are these of the creator and don’t essentially mirror TGP’s editorial stance.
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