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QUESTION: Marty, it seems that the September panic was on the upside, and it additionally seems to be a turning level. It appears to be like like it might be a excessive within the Dow and Gold on a closing foundation. I have to say, it’s far simpler to see now that this election would be the final. Does making a panic to the upside and a excessive dovetail right into a struggle state of affairs you may have been warning about for the election?
Kerry
ANSWER: I laid out the dangers in gold on the non-public weblog. Sure, the Panic was to the upside (see Glossary), and you’re right; this doesn’t bode effectively for the close to future. A Panic to the Draw back would have supplied a shopping for alternative in October, however this sample is sending up a purple flare. A Panic to the Upside is a transparent warning that the sample unfolding could be very critical, and it certainly consists of the excessive chance of main civil unrest that can damage home markets as no one will settle for the result. The issue now we have is what I warned about all through this yr. There stays a threat that our Neocons concern a Trump victory and are pushing for struggle earlier than the Election.
Israel attacked a Russian airbase below the pretense that Iran dropped off provides there for Hezbolla. Our workplace in UAE has reported that Russia has warned all Russians to get out of Israel ASAP. In the meantime, Russia is popping up the warmth and is Increasing in Ukraine. Zelensky despatched a drive to invade Russia in hopes that they might assault something in NATO to say Russia was the aggressor. Putin shouldn’t be silly.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan is to make use of long-range missiles to wage a full-scale struggle on Russia to destroy as a lot as doable previous to a NATO invasion. I’ve warned that Putin should reverse his place and take this struggle critically as a NATO invasion or be overthrown by the Russian hardline Neocons. Our mannequin focused October for this, so now we have simply seen Putin reject peace negotiations. He has been pressured to see actuality. He has approved glid bombs launched from plane, however he can also use the Father of All Bonds, which is the most important non-nuclear weapon that has the influence of a small nuke.
Our workplace within the UAE is reporting that whereas Israel attacked the Russian airbase, it looks as if the folks of Syria are break up on whether or not they like Assad or not. The Kurds are in opposition to Hezbollah/Iran/Russia and had been fairly comfortable Israel took out Nazrellah. Iranian Khomani spoke to unite the Muslims in opposition to Israel. Our employees there commented that it looks as if it’s going to kick off when Israel assaults Iran.
This weekend is Israel’s vacation, so it’s regular to go quiet. Nevertheless, Biden did reply to a query about whether or not attacking Iran’s vitality facility is probably going. He stated he was in dialogue with Israel, thereby confirming that the US is concerned strategically. That was not very sensible. That assertion confirms to the Arab world that the American Neocons are concerned.
The opposite facet of this similar coin is that Iran might additionally shut down the Strait of Hormuz, which might ship vitality costs sky-high within the West utilizing oil as a weapon, as was the case throughout the Seventies. It was October seventh, 1973, when Iraq nationalized the holdings of the 2 U.S. oil firms working within the Arab nation, Exxon and Mobil. They did so to point out help for Egypt and Syria of their struggle in opposition to Israel. October seventh, 2023, was the Hammas assault on the Jewish vacation. We must always count on assaults contained in the USA on Monday, the seventh, in sympathy with the Arab world and the help with impunity for Israel, as even some Democrats at the moment are arguing.
This 1973 Oil Embargo was 51 years in the past. Our fashions present that Crude is more likely to press greater, however it will likely be in 2025 once we see the annual stage turn into a grave concern. We may even see a disaster in vitality by March 2025 turning into apparent. The Neocons all the time need struggle. But, they’ve misplaced each single one since World Struggle II. No one in Washington will cease them.
Panic Cycle – Usually, a Panic Cycle is one thing that can exceed the earlier excessive and penetrate the earlier low. It can historically take out each earlier session occasions. Nevertheless, it will also be simply an excessive transfer in a single course, which is commonly indicated by opening above the earlier excessive or beneath the earlier session low.
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