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Expensive Readers: Be part of the Heart for Politics at UVA in the present day for the twenty sixth Annual American Democracy Convention, offered by the American Property House owners Alliance. The convention will run from 1 p.m. to five p.m. and might be streamed at this hyperlink. For extra info and a listing of panels and audio system, see right here.
— The Editors
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— After the election, many took observe of some seemingly uncommon patterns within the presidential and Senate voting. Some profitable Democrats in states that voted for Donald Trump, as an example, obtained fewer complete votes than Kamala Harris, however nonetheless gained whereas Harris misplaced.
— Some voters probably forged votes simply within the presidential race, that means that there have been fewer votes forged in a state’s Senate contest in comparison with its presidential contest.
— Nevertheless, there may be nothing uncommon about this in comparison with current historical past. Senate races virtually at all times have fewer votes forged than presidential races in presidential years.
— Actually, the typical measurement of the Senate “undervote” this yr was smaller than many different current cycles.
— The third get together vote was typically bigger in key Senate races than within the presidential race, which probably additionally contributed to the outcomes in sure states. However the next third-party vote for Senate can be commonplace—it was a characteristic of a few of 2020’s closest Senate races, too.
The Senate undervote
Final week, my colleague J. Miles Coleman appeared on the distinction between the presidential and Senate outcomes. Democratic Senate candidates have been in a position to win in 4 totally different states—Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin—that Donald Trump carried for president.
Precise ticket-splitting was probably a part of the story—voters voting for one get together for president however one other for Senate—however voters casting a vote for president however skipping the Senate race (and different races on the poll, too) probably was as properly.
This text continues the story from final week, wanting on the variations between the Senate and presidential elections and likewise the dropoff in votes forged from the presidential to Senate races (we’re going to name this the Senate “undervote”). We’ll first get into the share variations between the important thing Senate races and the presidential races of their states, after which we’ll take a look at the variations within the uncooked vote tallies. Lastly, we’ll examine complete Senate votes to complete presidential votes by state within the 7 presidential elections since 2000 to see whether or not the typical measurement of the “undervote” in Senate races was unusually giant this yr. It was not—in truth, the typical undervote by state was the second-smallest of those current presidential election years.
Desk 1 exhibits the outcomes for the Senate races we rated as one thing aside from Protected in our last 2024 scores. We excluded the Nebraska common election as a result of it didn’t characteristic a Democrat versus a Republican—Dan Osborn ran as an unbiased—so it didn’t match properly with the format of the desk, however we’ll focus on the race within the textual content later. As a reminder, outcomes are nonetheless unofficial in lots of states, so lots of the percentages/vote totals famous all through this piece will change barely when outcomes are all licensed. We used Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections as of Wednesday morning for the outcomes, with occasional supplementing from media vote reviews.
Desk 1: Senate vs. presidential vote shares in aggressive races
Notes: Consists of all races rated Leans or Doubtless in last Crystal Ball Senate scores; Nebraska excluded as a result of it featured an unbiased rather than a Democratic candidate. “O” is all different votes past these forged for main get together candidates.
Supply: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 20
Aside from the Maryland race, the place in style former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) ran properly forward of Donald Trump however didn’t come near profitable, Republican Senate candidates obtained a smaller share of the vote than Trump did in these states. In the meantime, Democrats typically obtained a bigger share than Kamala Harris gained, though there are some exceptions (aside from Maryland). One such instance was Pennsylvania, the place Sen. Bob Casey (D) obtained a really barely smaller share of the vote than Harris. A authorized battle over the ends in that state continues. Native Democratic officers in a number of counties voted to simply accept ballots that the Pennsylvania Supreme Courtroom had beforehand suggested shouldn’t be counted, which (understandably) enraged Republicans. The state courtroom reiterated earlier this week that such ballots shouldn’t be counted. The Dispatch’s David Drucker on Wednesday summarized the poll combat and wrote that even some Democrats see no path for Casey. Though a recount is now underway, Sen.-elect Dave McCormick’s (R) present lead (greater than 16,000 votes) is way outdoors the vary during which one may anticipate a recount to change the winner. The Related Press and Choice Desk HQ have known as the race for McCormick.
In the meantime, slender Democratic winners in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin all obtained no less than barely increased shares of the vote than Harris did, though the variations have been half a proportion level or much less besides within the case of Sen.-elect Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), whose share of the vote was a extra strong 3.5 factors increased than Harris’s; Gallego wanted this sort of overperformance to win provided that Harris misplaced Arizona by 5.5 factors, essentially the most lopsided of her losses within the 7 key swing states. Democratic candidates in states that have been much less aggressive for president (Montana, Ohio, and Texas) additionally ran additional forward of Harris, however similar to with Hogan, that was not sufficient to truly win.
Discover additionally in Desk 1 that the share of votes forged for non-major get together candidates was typically increased within the Senate races than within the presidential race, with simply a few exceptions (Montana and Maryland, two locations the place the Senate race was clearly extra aggressive than the presidential race). The presence of third-party candidates might have had an affect on the outcomes, too, given the closeness of a few of these races. Going again to Pennsylvania, Libertarian and Structure get together candidates mixed for somewhat greater than 1.5% of the vote, probably hurting McCormick greater than Casey (their high counties have been all closely Republican). In the meantime, a Inexperienced Social gathering candidate, Leila Hazou, obtained about 1% of the vote, probably hurting Casey greater than McCormick (her finest county was deep blue Philadelphia).
Nevada stands out as having a excessive non-major get together vote for Senate, however that complete is probably going inflated by the state’s distinctive “None of those Candidates” possibility, which obtained 3% of the entire Senate votes in 2024. Because it was, Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) solely obtained a barely increased share of the vote than Kamala Harris did, however Sam Brown (R) obtained roughly 4.5 factors lower than Donald Trump, serving to Rosen win. One thing comparable occurred within the state’s 2012 Senate race, when then-Sen. Dean Heller (R) narrowly gained regardless of Barack Obama profitable the state by almost 7 factors for president: Heller solely did a number of tenths of a proportion level higher than Mitt Romney (whereas profitable barely fewer uncooked votes than Romney, similar to how Rosen obtained fewer votes than Harris this yr), however Shelley Berkley (D) ran manner behind Obama. In 2016, now-Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) gained an in depth Senate race in opposition to Joe Heck (R) as each obtained fewer votes than their get together’s presidential candidate. In different phrases, what occurred in Nevada has current historic precedent (as an apart, Berkley simply reemerged in politics, profitable the Las Vegas mayoral election).
There may be additionally current precedent for a 3rd get together vote being increased in an in depth Senate race in comparison with an in depth presidential race.
4 states featured Senate and presidential races every determined by 3 factors or much less in 2020: Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and the common Georgia Senate election (we’re contemplating the primary spherical of voting, not the following runoff). The full variety of third-party Senate votes was increased than the variety of presidential third get together votes in 3 of the 4; Arizona was the exception, however there additionally was no third get together candidate on the poll that yr (though there have been a smattering of write-in votes).
The full variety of votes forged within the 2024 Senate contests was decrease in virtually all of those races than the variety of votes forged within the presidential contest.
Desk 2 exhibits the uncooked vote variations and, within the column on the far proper, the entire Senate votes forged divided by the variety of presidential votes forged in every state. When it comes to uncooked votes, all the Republicans listed in Desk 2 (moreover Hogan) obtained fewer than Trump, whereas the Democratic story was extra combined (that is only a totally different manner of wanting on the story instructed in Desk 1).
Desk 2: 2024 Senate uncooked votes vs. presidential uncooked votes
Supply: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 20
Map 1, from my colleague Miles Coleman, exhibits the locations the place Senate candidates exceeded their get together presidential candidate by way of votes gained.
Map 1: Senate versus presidential vote totals
Notes: Impartial candidates in Maine, Nebraska, and Vermont thought-about as Democrats for functions of the map.
Supply: Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections as of Wednesday morning, Nov. 20
On common, the entire variety of Senate votes within the contests listed in Desk 2 was about 1% decrease than the variety of presidential votes forged—that is the Senate “undervote.” The Nebraska common election additionally noticed a comparatively low undervote: The Senate race has 98.8% of votes forged in comparison with the presidential race, and Sen. Deb Fischer (R-NE) beat Osborn by 6.7 factors whereas Trump carried Nebraska by 20.5 factors.
Total, the typical proportion of complete presidential votes forged within the Senate races was 98.1%, so there was somewhat bit much less of an undervote within the Senate races rated as one thing aside from Protected in comparison with the Protected-rated races.
The common measurement of the Senate undervote was really smaller this yr than in lots of current election years. Desk 3 exhibits the typical by yr over the past 7 presidential cycles. As proven within the desk, the 2024 races really had the second-smallest common undervote, solely exceeded by 2020.
Desk 3: Common Senate votes forged as proportion of presidential votes forged, 2000-2024
Notes: For elections that went to runoffs, we in contrast the entire votes forged within the preliminary election held concurrently with the November presidential vote versus the following runoff—this is applicable to the Louisiana 2016 Senate election and each Georgia 2020 common and particular elections.
Supply: Calculated by writer from Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
Of 239 Senate elections held over the past 7 presidential cycles, virtually all of them—232—had a smaller variety of votes forged for Senate than for president.
Apparently, 4 of the 7 exceptions, the place there have been extra votes forged for Senate than for president, got here in the identical state: Montana. The 2000, 2012, 2020, and 2024 Senate races all had barely increased vote totals than the presidential race. All 4 of these elections have been hotly contested, though the latter pair (2020 and 2024) weren’t really that shut, as they have been determined by 10 and seven factors, respectively. Montana was by no means aggressive for president in these years, so maybe it makes some intuitive sense that voters handled the Senate race as extra of the “primary occasion” in these elections.
The opposite 3 examples the place extra votes have been forged for Senate than for president have been Missouri in 2000, when Gov. Mel Carnahan (D) died in a aircraft crash a number of weeks earlier than the election however nonetheless unseated then-Sen. John Ashcroft (R) posthumously; South Dakota in 2004, when the now-incoming Senate majority chief, John Thune (R), defeated the then-sitting Senate minority chief, Tom Daschle (D); and South Carolina in 2020, when Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) confronted an costly, high-profile problem from Jaime Harrison (D), who’s now apparently wrapping up his tenure as chairman of the Democratic Nationwide Committee. Identical to within the Montana races, maybe the Senate races simply drove barely increased voter engagement than the presidential race (Missouri was nonetheless aggressive on the presidential degree in 2000, however South Dakota in 2004 and South Carolina in 2020 weren’t).
This historic perspective is beneficial as a result of it provides some context to what we noticed in 2024. It’s not odd for there to be fewer votes forged in a Senate race than within the presidential race—in truth, it will be traditionally odd if there was not no less than some undervote in almost each race. This dynamic was in all probability just a bit extra noticeable this yr due to a number of very shut races that, in some situations, produced a unique get together winner than the state’s presidential winner.
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