Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Horse race presidential polling has proven some vital weaknesses for President Biden amongst no less than a few key subgroups: younger individuals and Black voters.

— Nonetheless, some polls have additionally proven Biden doing unusually properly amongst senior residents.

— The oldest voters have usually voted to the fitting of the nationwide vote in current cycles, and that’s most likely what we must always count on in 2024 as properly, regardless of these polls.

The senior citizen vote in 2024

In a few earlier Crystal Ball articles, we now have checked out a few key teams the place it’s doable that polls are portray a very rosy image for former President Donald Trump in his rematch with President Joe Biden. Final week, Senior Columnist Alan Abramowitz checked out Trump’s unusually sturdy polling with Black voters, an overwhelmingly Democratic voting bloc. Late final yr, I wrote about Trump’s comparatively good polling with younger voters, one other group that’s normally Democratic-leaning (Trump’s energy and/or Biden’s weak point with youthful voters nonetheless exhibits up in lots of polls).

However there’s one other group with whom Biden, not Trump, is doing unusually and maybe unrealistically properly in no less than some current polling: voters over the age of 65.

Desk 1 exhibits some current nationwide polls that offered detailed crosstab details about voters aged 65 and over. The least-recent ballot within the group is the widely-cited New York Occasions/Siena School ballot from late February; the others had been fielded from mid-to-late March.

Desk 1: Vote intention of 65+ voters in current Biden vs. Trump polls

Notes: All are Biden versus Trump nationwide head-to-head polls, excluding Economist/YouGov, which used the total poll. All characteristic outcomes for registered voters aside from Echelon, which is of doubtless voters.

Supply: Day by day Kos/Civiqs, New York Occasions/Siena School, Echelon Insights, Quinnipiac College, Fox Information, Economist/YouGov

All of those polls included simply Biden versus Trump, excluding the Economist/YouGov ballot, though third social gathering candidates obtained little or no help in that survey (Robert F. Kennedy Jr. obtained simply 3%, and the Inexperienced Get together’s Jill Stein simply 1%). That ballot can also be the one one of many six cited right here the place Biden does clearly worse among the many 65+ age group (trailing 52%-40%) than he does total (principally tied with Trump, who’s up 44%-43%). Usually talking, YouGov’s demographic crosstabs higher replicate 2020 patterns than many different pollsters conducting nationwide polls.

Two of the opposite polls—from the Republican pollster Echelon Insights and from a bipartisan polling crew for Fox Information—present little or no distinction between the topline discovering and the outcomes amongst 65+ voters. The opposite three, Civiqs for the liberal web site Day by day Kos, Quinnipiac, and New York Occasions/Siena, present Biden doing higher with the oldest cohort than he’s doing total.

Let’s check out the historical past of how older voters have voted over roughly the previous half-century. Desk 2 compares the nationwide exit ballot from 1976-2020 with the precise nationwide well-liked vote. For many of those elections, the exit ballot reported how these 65 and older voted, however for a number of the elections earlier within the timeframe, the exit ballot data that’s publicly out there reported the outcomes of these 60 and older (these are famous within the desk in italics). Within the far proper column, a unfavourable quantity implies that the oldest voters voted extra Republican than the nation; a constructive quantity means they voted extra Democratic.

Desk 2: Oldest voters in presidential elections, 1976-2020

Observe: Percentages all rounded besides within the Democratic well-liked vote margin for 2000, on condition that the margin was solely half a degree in favor of Al Gore. Exit ballot outcomes are for voters 65 and over, excluding the years famous in italics, which present outcomes for voters 60 and over.

Supply: Roper Heart for Public Opinion Analysis

Discover that it’s pretty widespread, notably within the 4 most up-to-date elections, for the oldest group to vote extra Republican than the general citizens. This current progress within the Republican lean of the oldest voters dovetails with a Democratic pattern among the many youngest voters. As we confirmed in the same desk again within the late November story on younger voters, the Democratic exhibiting among the many youngest voters relative to the general outcomes spiked within the 2008-2020 vary, simply because the GOP lean of the oldest voters spiked in the identical 4 elections.

The huge hole between how the oldest voters vote in comparison with the youngest is backed up by an in depth evaluation produced by the Democratic agency Catalist. Within the 2012, 2016, and 2020 presidential elections, the Democrat received the 18-29 group by 24 factors every time (within the two-party vote) whereas the Republican received the 65+ group by 6, 8, and 4 factors, respectively. So the Democratic margins amongst younger individuals had been larger than the Republican margins amongst older individuals, however the oldest bloc made up a considerably bigger share of the citizens (26%, based on Catalist) than the youngest bloc (16%) in 2020. So with one-in-four voters being 65 or older, that is clearly a extremely necessary a part of the citizens, and it’s not exhausting to think about the 65+ vote being an even bigger a part of the citizens in 2024 if dissatisfaction with Joe Biden amongst younger voters results in poorer younger voter turnout.

Adam Carlson, a former Democratic pollster, has been updating a helpful spreadsheet aggregating the crosstabs of nationwide polls and evaluating them to what occurred in 2020. Throughout 9 polls in March—together with a number of the ones we famous above—Carlson’s common discovered Biden up 3 factors on Trump amongst these aged 65 or over, in comparison with a Trump win of 4 factors with that bloc in 2020 primarily based on an combination of analyses of the 2020 citizens (together with the Catalist report, which we cited above, together with a Pew Analysis Heart evaluation and the AP/Fox Information VoteCast). Bear in mind, although, that Biden received the nationwide well-liked vote by 4.5 factors in 2020, whereas the March polling Carlson aggregated confirmed a Trump lead of 1.5 factors. So the polls present the oldest voters getting about 7 factors bluer however the total citizens getting 6 factors redder. That is the place Biden’s weaknesses with, for example, younger voters and Black voters are making a distinction—in Carlson’s polling combination, Biden was doing 15 factors worse with younger voters and 29 factors worse with Black voters than he did in 2020. We do assume there are causes to be skeptical of those large Republican swings amongst these subgroups primarily based on historical past and different elements, as I wrote again in November on younger voters and Abramowitz wrote final week on Black voters. However there are also causes to be skeptical of Biden’s overperformance amongst older voters, too. A part of that’s the historical past—notably just lately, one wouldn’t count on the 65+ cohort to vote to the left of the nation in a presidential election.

Now, if Biden really is doing higher with older voters whereas shedding floor elsewhere, there could also be some explanations. Youthful cohorts seem like likelier to disagree with Biden on how he has dealt with the scenario in Gaza, for example. It additionally could also be that some financial challenges, like larger rates of interest imposed by the Federal Reserve to battle inflation, are felt extra by youthful individuals attempting to enter the housing market versus older people who find themselves extra established. Extra broadly, the aforementioned New York Occasions/Siena ballot discovered that 65 and over respondents had been much less pessimistic concerning the financial system than the 18-29 group (38% of the previous mentioned financial circumstances had been glorious or good, whereas simply 14% of the 18-29 group mentioned the identical). There could possibly be many different respectable explanations for an actual shift in how voter preferences are altering amongst age teams—the patterns of the previous don’t at all times mission the long run.

Nonetheless, it is usually doable that there’s simply one thing unusual happening throughout many alternative polls that’s inflicting older voters to appear bluer and youthful voters to appear redder. Noah Wyhof-Rudnick, director of innovation for the Republican pollster Cygnal, recommended that pollsters could also be weighting to 2020 outcomes, and that left-leaning seniors are notably simple for pollsters to achieve in comparison with different teams, which can have the impact of constructing seniors as a bunch look bluer than they’re. However, with the intention to get a pattern that appears just like the 2020 citizens, different teams could appear redder with the intention to compensate for that overly blue senior pattern. (Wyhof-Rudnick made this level in an X/Twitter thread). Additionally it is price holding in thoughts that 2020 polling additionally tended to overstate Biden’s eventual exhibiting with older voters, as polling analyst Dan Guild has famous. Proper earlier than the 2020 election, a number of the pollsters famous above—like Quinnipiac and YouGov—had Biden doing higher with older voters than he finally carried out. We’re not noting this as a “gotcha” to assault these pollsters—we respect the information that these and different public pollsters present. Fairly, we simply need to be aware that Biden’s backing amongst 65 and older voters was typically overstated in 2020 and really properly could also be overstated now.

Past that, we additionally simply need to do not forget that polling is actually troublesome, and completely different teams range in how simple or exhausting it’s for pollsters to achieve them. As Heart for Politics Scholar Natalie Jackson, a vp on the Democratic polling agency GQR Analysis, put it in a current column: “In brief, individuals don’t need to speak to pollsters. However that’s not even the worst half. The worst half is that sure kinds of individuals don’t need to speak to pollsters, and they’re completely different from those that are keen to speak to us. Folks with much less formal training are much less prone to speak to us. Younger individuals are much less prone to speak to us. Black and Hispanic individuals are much less prone to speak to us. Discover any potential issues there after we’re speaking about politics?”

In Trump’s two elections, capturing the total scope of his help was a problem for pollsters. However return to 2012, and the polling story was extra about lacking help for Barack Obama. One can by no means be fairly positive what sort of polling error there may be and whose efficiency that error may be underestimating or overestimating.

The underside line right here is that similar to we’re skeptical of ballot findings that present Trump profitable youthful voters outright or making historic inroads with Black voters, we’re additionally skeptical of ballot findings that counsel 65+ voters will vote bluer than the nation and/or that present Biden profitable that group. This can be a very difficult polling setting, and the presence of third social gathering candidates is one other confounding variable. We proceed to consider that the 2024 presidential election is prone to be very shut and aggressive and likewise that there’s prone to be lots of continuity between this election and what occurred in 2016 and 2020—when Trump was on the poll every time and Biden was on the poll within the latter election. There is also prone to be some change amongst sure subgroups that may assist decide the winner—possibly not as large of a change as some polls could also be indicating, however change that can be necessary to uncover and analyze nonetheless.