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1. Changing Legacy Platforms
In a public relations video launched in January 2024, the PAF stated that Air Headquarters (AHQ) made the “strategic determination to section out legacy programs” whereas displaying footage of the Dassault Mirage III and 5, Chengdu FT-7P, Karakoram Eagle (KE) airborne early warning and management (AEW&C) plane, and CN-235 mild transport plane.[4] General, the PAF is working to section out older plane and, not less than amongst its particular mission plane, consolidate its fleets.
Fighter Plane
The PAF’s push to switch the F-7P, FT-7P, and F-7PG in addition to Mirage III/5 is no surprise. In 2016, the PAF said that it aimed to switch 190 legacy fighters by 2020.[5] Then Chief of Air Workers (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman added that the PAF sought to keep up a 400-strong fighter fleet in order that it might maintain a 1:1.35 to 1:1.75 ratio towards the Indian Air Pressure (IAF).[6]
The promotional video means that the PAF is now urgent forward with changing its legacy fighters. Whereas it didn’t disclose a revised timeline, it seems that the entire shift away from the F-7 and Mirage III/5-series might happen within the short-term, i.e., the following three to 5 years, or 2030 on the newest. The brand new fighters will comprise of the J-10CE and the JF-17C (Block-III) in an interoperable high-low combine. Presently, the PAF has 20 J-10CE and 30 JF-17Cs, however Quwa expects that the PAF will purchase extra airframes throughout each fighter sorts via the 2020s.
However in November 2023, reviews emerged of the PAF chatting with the Aviation Business Company of China (AVIC) for an unspecified variety of Hongdu L-15Bs for a lead-in-fighter-trainer (LIFT) want. The truth is, the PAF sought a brand new LIFT since not less than 2017 to raised put together its pilots for 4/4+ era jets just like the J-10CE, JF-17, and F-16. The PAF had initially deliberate to make use of the JF-17B for this function in 2015, however in 2017, it pivoted to searching for a separate platform. Apparently, the PAF laid out that its new LIFT ought to have an afterburning engine, multimode radar, and tactical datalink (TDL).[7]
The PAF’s LIFT necessities level to a totally practical fighter, and on that entrance, the L-15B delivers. It has a passive electronically scanned array (PESA) radar paired with SD-10 beyond-visual-range (BVR) air-to-air missiles (AAM), capability to deploy precision-guided bombs (PGB) and laser-guided bombs (LGB), and compatibility with focusing on pods and digital countermeasures (ECM) pods.
With these options, the L-15B matches the working surroundings of the PAF’s frontline fighters. Nonetheless, the PAF might additionally leverage these capabilities for sure missions, particularly inner safety efforts, like counterinsurgency (COIN) or level air defence.
Thus, the L-15B might emerge as a substitute for among the PAF’s legacy fighters, such because the F-7PG. Nonetheless, its worth would transcend taking up the F-7PG’s air defence function. By proudly owning the PAF’s COIN necessities, the L-15B can free the PAF to totally commit its extra refined fighters towards its exterior threats. This strategy might liberate plane to allocate to the PAF’s offensive wings on a full-time foundation.
Presently, the PAF has 20 J-10CE, 75-odd F-16A/B Block-15 and F-16C/D Block-52, 30 JF-17C, 26 dual-seat JF-17B, 62 JF-17 Block-II, and 50-odd JF-17 Block-I. In complete, this could quantity to 263 out of 400 4/4+ era fighters, leaving a requirement of round 140 extra plane…
Particular Mission Plane
The obvious plan to retire the KE AEW&C was sudden. Inducted in 2009, the KE pairs the ZDK03 PESA radar to the Shaanxi Y-8F600 turboprop-powered transport plane. The KE has been a key a part of the PAF’s maritime operations, the place the PAF deployed the AEW&C in joint maneuvers with the Pakistan Navy (PN). It appeared that the KE was interoperable with the PN’s belongings.
Shifting ahead, evidently the PAF is standardizing on the Saab 2000-based Erieye AEW&C. The PAF had initially deliberate to solely function the Erieye within the early 2000s. Nonetheless, within the late 2000s, it complemented its fleet of 4 plane with 4 KEs from China. In 2012, the PAF had misplaced three of its 4 Erieye AEW&C to a terrorist assault on Minhas Air Base. Mockingly, the 4 KEs have been a important asset for the PAF because it crammed the protection hole attributable to the lack of Erieye AEW&Cs.
By 2016, the PAF restored its Erieye fleet to its unique energy of 4 plane and, in 2017, ordered one other three plane. This was adopted by an order for not less than two extra programs in 2020, the deliveries of which befell from 2020 to 2023. Thus, the PAF has a complete of 9 Erieye AEW&Cs.
To help this enlarged fleet, the PAF might have determined to reassign personnel from the KE to new Erieye plane. In flip, the PAF will doubtless station a number of Erieye AEW&Cs in Southern Air Command; it might take up the KE’s function of supporting maritime operations in coordination with the PN.
It’s also value noting that the PN can also be constructing its personal AEW functionality via its next-generation long-range maritime patrol (LRMPA) plane, the Sea Sultan. The PN might add the AEW functionality by way of the Sea Sultan’s major search radar. If the PN opts for the Leonardo Seaspray 7500 V2 (a variant of the radar used onboard the PN’s RAS-72 Sea Eagle MPAs), it might achieve an AESA radar with each air-to-air and air-to-surface monitoring and imaging modes. Although not as sturdy as a devoted AEW&C, the PN can mix the AEW component of its LRMPAs with the Erieye’s protection by way of a TDL.
Standardizing on the Erieye additionally confirms a key issue – the Erieye can certainly help Hyperlink-17, the PAF’s in-house TDL alongside Hyperlink-16 and NIXS, the PN’s TDL. The PAF might leverage off-the-shelf options, like the MilSOFT Multi-Information Hyperlink Processor (Mil-DLP), to allow the Erieye to help and handle a number of TDLs concurrently. Thus, there isn’t a technical limitation stopping the PAF from connecting the Erieye to the F-16s, JF-17s, J-10CEs, or some other platform.
Logistics Plane
It additionally seems that the PAF is phasing out its 4 CN-235 mild transport plane. Since buying the unique batch in 2005, the PAF didn’t develop the CN-235 fleet with extra items.
It’s unclear if the PAF misplaced curiosity in constructing a light-weight/tactical airlift functionality or, as an alternative, has conferred the function to even lighter plane, just like the Piper M-600 or Beechcraft Tremendous King Air. It’s also attainable that the PAF didn’t make the most of the CN-235 in its supposed function as a lot because it initially supposed to; thus, it opted to switch the CN-235 with plane extra suited to its precise wants.
The retirement of the CN-235 opens the query of how the PAF plans to drive missions for particular operations forces (SOF). The PAF might have opted to develop the Hercules fleet by way of ex-Belgian C-130H plane to imagine that function in addition to develop its wider air logistics/transport functionality.
2. Taking a Holistic Strategy to Space Denial
In 2019, the PAF had largely leaned on its fighter fleet to disclaim enemy plane entry and management of its airspace. Floor-to-air missiles (SAM) didn’t determine a lot within the PAF’s strategy, particularly as its longest-range ‘vector’ on the time was the MBDA Spada 2000-Plus, which had a variety of 20 km.
PAF principally used its SAMs to guard installations, not deny – a lot much less deter – enemy air exercise close to or throughout the nationwide border. Whereas it continued investing closely in fighters since 2019, the PAF additionally revealed that it constructed a brand new and sturdy ground-based air defence system (GBADS). AHQ doubtless appreciated Ukraine’s deft use of GBADS as a manner of mitigating enemy air energy over one’s territory and, in flip, adopted the concept to defend Pakistani airspace.
Nonetheless, it’s value noting that along with medium- and long-range SAMs, the PAF additionally set the groundwork for leveraging directed power weapons and passive air defence measures. This was doubtless accomplished to handle the specter of loitering munitions and swarming drones.
Multirole Fight Plane
Shifting ahead, the PAF’s fight plane inductions will solely comprise of options with AESA radars, built-in ECM, helmet-mounted show and sight (HMD/S), and compatibility with long-range air-to-air missiles (LRAAM) and excessive off-boresight (HOBS) AAMs.
The PAF’s procurement roadmap for the remainder of this decade – and presumably effectively into the 2030s – will heart on the J-10CE and JF-17C/Block-III in a hi-and-lo combine, respectively. Each fighter sorts will likely be used for air-to-air and air-to-surface engagements, with the JF-17C managing the majority of stand-off weapon (SOW) deployment within the near-term. Mixed, the 2 fighters will play the main roles in supplanting the rest of the PAF’s previous F-7P/PG and Mirage III/5s.
J-10CE Dragon
The PAF inducted the Chengdu J-10CE in March 2022 as a part of a longstanding effort to amass an off-the-shelf fighter to enhance its F-16 and JF-17 fleets. Quwa was in a position to visually confirm a complete of 20 J-10CEs in PAF service, substantiating an obvious leak of the contract signed with AVIC, which additionally listed the sale of 240 PL-15E LRAAMs.
Whereas Swift Retort catalyzed AHQ to signal the deal, the PAF sought an off-the-shelf fighter since not less than 2015. It initially wished to amass extra new-built F-16C/Ds (for which it as soon as aimed to construct a fleet of not less than 55 plane earlier than the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir). Sadly, a chill in defence ties with Washington derailed these efforts, pushing AHQ to look to Russia and China.
Realistically, the one viable various to the F-16s was the J-10CE. Not solely did the PAF keep shut ties with China, however the J-10CE might additionally readily leverage lots of the PAF’s present air-to-air munitions shares (just like the SD-10 and PL-5E). The J-10CE was already interoperable with the JF-17. Furthermore, AVIC additionally labored to ship the primary batch of fighters inside solely eight months after signing the contract, a significant feat seeing how net-new inductions can take 18 to 24 months…
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JF-17B/C Thunder
Whereas the J-10CE dominates the dialog, the PAF continues to be invested within the JF-17, particularly the most recent fashions, the dual-seat JF-17B and the JF-17C or Block-III.
Whereas the PAF’s baseline fighter, the JF-17C makes use of an AESA radar with HMD/S and ECM. The KLJ-7A radar has a variety of 170 km towards targets with a radar cross-section (RCS) of 5m2. It could observe 15 targets concurrently in addition to have interaction 4 directly. It makes use of a Chinese language HMD/S (doubtless the identical mannequin used onboard the PAF’s J-10CE) paired with a HOBS AAM. It could additionally leverage the PL-15E.
The JF-17B/C lacks the aerodynamic efficiency or attain of the J-10CE, however the Thunder continues to be a viable defensive fighter, one the PAF can afford to amass at scale due to its present working infrastructure, native manufacturing capability, and decrease prices.
The PAF had initially deliberate to amass 50 JF-17Cs; so far, it solely dedicated to 30 items.[9] The PAF doubtless cut up its JF-17C order with the dual-seat JF-17B. It’s value noting that the JF-17B continues to be largely much like the JF-17C – i.e., it makes use of the brand new fly-by-wire (FBW) flight management system, has the capability to help an AESA radar, and different enhancements.[10] Thus, the PAF can carry its JF-17Bs in direction of a typical configuration with the JF-17C, giving it 56 ‘superior mannequin’ JF-17s in complete…
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L-15B
In comparison with the J-10CE and JF-17B/C, the L-15B is much less sure because the PAF has but to formally affirm whether it is actively pursuing the platform. That stated, the L-15B can function as a practical fighter plane, one that would deploy the SD-10 LRAAM. This might be worthwhile as an inner safety or level air defence asset behind the J-10CE, JF-17C, F-16, and JF-17 Block-I/II.
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