Presley, Democratic Party unable to turn media hype, campaign cash into voter turnout

Columnist Sid Salter says Brandon Presley ran what turned out to be a moderately common marketing campaign taking about 47% of the vote towards Governor Tate Reeves. Historical past bears that out. 

Incumbent Democratic Northern District Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley was arguably probably the most formidable gubernatorial nominee of his celebration within the final three a long time. However within the Nov. 7 Mississippi normal election, he joined the intensive record of failed Mississippi Democratic gubernatorial contenders. 

Presley ran an impressive marketing campaign that was flush with virtually $12 million in marketing campaign contributions. He labored exhausting. His populist political talking abilities are unmatched within the state, and he matched incumbent Republican Gov. Tate Reeves in TV advertisements, social media posts and different digital media. 

For all of the media hype surrounding his bid for the Governor’s Mansion on the state and nationwide stage, Presley ran what turned out to be a moderately common marketing campaign taking about 47% of the vote towards Reeves. Historical past bears that out. 

In 1987, Democrat Ray Mabus took 53.44% to 46.56% for Republican Jack Reed Sr. Mabus is the final Mississippi Democrat to be elected governor with over 50% of the vote. Ronnie Musgrove in 1999 was the final Democrat elected governor of Mississippi – profitable a plurality of 49.6% of the vote towards GOP nominee Mike Parker with 48.5% of the vote with the remainder cut up between two minor celebration candidates. 

In 1991, Mabus misplaced to Republican Kirk Fordice with 47.59 % of the vote. 1995 noticed Democrat Dick Molpus lose to Fordice with 44.44 %. Once more, Musgrove gained in 1999 with a 49.6 % plurality however misplaced to Republican Haley Barbour in 2003 with 45.8 %. Democrat John Arthur Eaves Jr. misplaced to Barbour in 2007 with 42.1% 

In 2011 and 2015, Republican Phil Bryant held his Democratic challengers to 39 % and 32.38 % respectively. In 2019, Reeves defeated Democrat Jim Hood 51.91% to 46.83% with a 1.25% cut up between two minor celebration candidates. 

From the 1991 by way of the 2023 Mississippi gubernatorial normal elections, Democratic nominees have earned a mean of 43.82 % of the vote. Presley bested that common however not appreciably so. To be truthful, unbiased Gwendolyn Grey’s presence on the poll took 1.4 % seemingly from Presley.  

So the place do the 2023 gubernatorial election outcomes depart Mississippi? Republicans management all eight statewide elective positions, super-majorities in each homes of the Mississippi Legislature and 5 of the six congressional posts on Capitol Hill. Whereas outright Medicaid enlargement should still be a heavy raise in Jackson, the Legislature does seem open to offering assist for the state’s rural hospitals and to insurance policies that can bolster healthcare entry for the working poor within the state.  

Reeves will proceed to nominate the management of the state company forms and fill the judicial vacancies. Few in state historical past have extra sensible expertise in state authorities – two phrases every as state treasurer, lieutenant governor, and now governor – than Reeves.  

In each his gubernatorial bids, Reeves held his floor towards the strongest Democrats obtainable.  

For Mississippi Democrats, the trail ahead is much less sure. In Hood and Presley, the celebration put earlier than the voters what lots of them believed had been the perfect two obtainable candidates. Hood was elected lawyer normal statewide 4 occasions earlier than making his bid. Presley had historic monetary assets obtainable to him in his bid to go together with his retail political abilities. 

The place do state Democrats go from right here? And can out-of-state teams make investments that a lot cash in a Democratic gubernatorial bid in 2027? 

Sarcastically, Reeves in 2019 and 2023 dominated within the Northeast Mississippi area that’s residence to each Presley and Hood. Closely Democratic Hinds County, the state’s most populous county, was presupposed to have been Presley’s stronghold. Hinds County, nevertheless, failed to offer enough ballots to satisfy the demand of the county’s voters. 

However within the remaining evaluation, it will appear that the Presley camp failed to plan and execute a discernible and efficient political floor recreation to get their voters to the polls. Canvasing, unsolicited mail, microtargeting, however in rural states like Mississippi that’s principally knocking on doorways. 

Turnout was down total on Nov. 7 and that was finally the story of the race. Reeves and the GOP successfully turned out their vote whereas Presley and the Democrats didn’t.