Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Whereas the 7 Toss-up states on our present Electoral School map can have outsized significance nationally, every of these states has a number of key counties that we’ll be watching.

— On this article, we’ll be isolating a number of counties from the “Blue Wall” states that would inform the story of the 2024 election.

— In Wisconsin, Ozaukee County is the bluest of the “WOW” counties whereas Door County has been an excellent bellwether in current cycles.

— To win again Michigan, Donald Trump would most likely wish to flip again Saginaw County and hold the Cherry Coast purple.

— In Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris could also be poised to slender Trump’s margin in Cumberland County, though we’re curious how she’ll fare in Joe Biden’s native Lackawanna County.

Key counties in key states

One of many questions we’re requested most frequently in emails and in discussions is which counties we’ll be watching when the outcomes begin to pour in on Election Night time. These counties aren’t simply “bellwethers” that we anticipate to vote for the winner; additionally they are locations which have been trending by hook or by crook and would possibly inform us one thing extra broadly in regards to the trajectory of the election, even when the counties themselves aren’t really up for grabs.

On our present Electoral School map, we have now 7 states recognized as Toss-ups. Simply sticking to those states, we’ve deliberate a two-part sequence isolating a number of counties from every. Right this moment’s focus can be on the three “Blue Wall” states; although all of them have related topline trajectories—after giving Barack Obama comparatively comfy margins, they every narrowly backed Donald Trump in 2016 earlier than barely returning to the Democratic column with Joe Biden in 2020—the counties that comply with are supposed to illustrate some diverging traits.

For this, we needed to keep away from solely highlighting the most important counties in every state that are inclined to get essentially the most consideration. In Pennsylvania, as an illustration, will Philadelphia be vital? Sure, in fact. Actually, regardless of its deep blue picture, in 2020, Biden truly carried out 4 factors worse there than Hillary Clinton did in 2016—his beneficial properties elsewhere have been sufficient to offset it, but when town sees one other related rightward lurch, it may very well be sufficient to push the state out of attain for Harris. However, except for these giant localities, there’ll nearly definitely be smaller counties across the nation that can inform the end result.

And, to emphasise one thing we alluded to earlier: though we’re together with some on this piece, we’re not relying too closely on bellwether counties. That is partly as a result of bellwethers are bellwethers till, nicely, they aren’t anymore. In Wisconsin, Buffalo County, a small county on the western border with Minnesota, voted with the state winner of each federal and gubernatorial race from 2000 to 2016. Then, beginning in 2018, Democrats started to win statewide with out it. There have been many such circumstances within the Trump period, as instructional realignment has pushed counties like Buffalo to the precise.

In any case, listed here are a few of the counties we’ll be watching:

Wisconsin

Located alongside Lake Michigan, Ozaukee County is simply north of Milwaukee, which was the scene of this yr’s Republican Nationwide Conference. Whereas it places the “O” in what has turn into generally known as the “WOW Counties,” additionally it is the least Republican of these three purple counties—the others are Waukesha, which is the most important suburban county in Milwaukee’s orbit, and Washington, which is the reddest and most exurban of the trio.

In 2020, as Biden continued to hunch in a lot of the Obama-to-Trump counties outdoors of metro Wisconsin, his efficiency within the Milwaukee suburbs arguably put him excessive within the state. Except for Madison’s Dane County, Ozaukee County is the one different Wisconsin county the place a majority of residents aged 25 years and older maintain a school diploma, in line with census information offered by Redistricter. Although Biden nonetheless misplaced the county by a dozen factors, his 43% right here represented the best share for a Democratic nominee since John F. Kennedy’s 41% in 1960 (its inhabitants has greater than doubled since then, so it was, in some methods, a completely completely different county).

Desk 1 considers each presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial race in Wisconsin since 2008. In comparison with the state, Ozaukee County has turn into much less purple. After beginning as a county that leaned greater than 30 factors proper of the state, within the three most up-to-date races on Desk 1, it was inside 15 factors of the statewide vote.

Desk 1: Ozaukee County lean in elections, 2008-2022

Be aware: Desk 1 considers two-party totals.

Given its instructional attainment degree, this strikes us as the kind of place the place Trump’s margin could decline additional. If Harris can restrict Trump to a single-digit margin right here, that will bode nicely for her statewide prospects.

If we’re watching Ozaukee County for its margin—even on a robust night time for Harris, Trump will seemingly nonetheless carry it—we’d flag Door County as a bellwether county. Door County, which makes up the likewise-named peninsula jutting into Lake Michigan, has tracked shut with the statewide vote in presidential elections since 2008. In 2022, each statewide winner carried it. Whereas Door County shouldn’t be an particularly giant treasure trove of votes—in 2020, 40 counties solid extra votes—its mixture of wealthier coastal communities and conservative rural cities have given it a partisan combine that displays the state nicely.

Michigan

In 2020, as Biden put Michigan again into the Democratic column, he improved over Hillary Clinton’s efficiency in a lot of the state’s giant metro counties. Nevertheless, some of the notable traits north of the state’s main inhabitants facilities was Biden’s enchancment within the northwestern a part of the decrease peninsula. A handful of counties that make up the state’s “Cherry Coast”—named for the fruit it produces—every shifted greater than 5 factors to Biden. Probably the most populous of this group is Grand Traverse County (Traverse Metropolis).

Like a lot of western Michigan general, that is a type of areas that has been Republican for many years: the final two occasions that Grand Traverse County voted Democratic have been additionally the occasion’s two most up-to-date mega-landslides, 1936 after which 1964. Although Biden nonetheless misplaced the county, he matched the 3-point deficit that Obama posted there in 2008, whilst he carried out nearly 14 factors worse statewide.

On the floor, it appeared doable that, in 2020, the Cherry Coast’s pro-Democratic motion may have been one thing of a “one-time” deal: on this touristy space, it will have been simple to see voters being annoyed over Trump’s dealing with of the COVID pandemic (the aforementioned Door County in Wisconsin can be a “touristy” form of place). However current gubernatorial races recommend a extra sustained shift. In 2018, although she narrowly misplaced it, Grand Traverse County noticed the most important swing to now-Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) of any non-metro county. In 2022, Whitmer improved her statewide margin by a few level however carried Grand Traverse County 52%-46%, which represented an 8% swing in her path—it was her third-largest enchancment of any county that yr (the second largest got here in close by Emmet County).

Map 1 illustrates what we’re getting at right here. The suitable picture exhibits the change between the 2 most up-to-date presidential contests in Michigan and the left picture exhibits the change between the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial races. Grand Traverse County is printed in gold. On the presidential map, it was one in all two counties—together with Ottawa County, which has behaved equally to counties like Ozaukee, WI in current elections—that noticed a double-digit two-party swing to Biden in 2020. In 2022, most coastal counties in its neighborhood swung greater than 5 factors to Whitmer.

Map 1: Change in current Michigan presidential and gubernatorial races

Be aware: Map 1 considers two-party totals.

Whereas we don’t assume Harris must carry Grand Traverse County to win Michigan—it was nonetheless about 6% extra Republican than the state as a complete in 2020, and 4% extra so in 2022—Democrats would most likely wish to at the least restrict Trump to a plurality there this yr (in 2020, he took 50.5% of the vote in opposition to Biden and minor occasion candidates).

After we chosen the counties for this text and have been penning this up, we seen that the Trump marketing campaign dispatched JD Vance to Grand Traverse County yesterday—so perhaps we’re on to one thing with our record!

Shifting east, the one county that has voted with the state in all 4 presidential elections since 2008 is Saginaw. An outdated industrial space, it has the next Black inhabitants than Michigan as a complete—18%, in comparison with 12%—however is far more working class than Grand Traverse. After giving Obama double-digit margins in each of his runs, Trump carried Saginaw County by simply over a share level, and Biden reclaimed it by about three-tenths of a degree.

Given its standing because the state’s lone current presidential bellwether, we thought it merited inclusion right here, though, as with the Buffalo County instance given within the introduction, this may very well be a case of a county being predictive till it isn’t. Although Biden flipped it in 2020, Saginaw County was nonetheless simply over 2 factors proper of the state. If Harris carries Michigan by a slender margin, it will not be exhausting to see her shedding it, though if Trump carries it, it could be an indication that his assist in blue-collar communities is matching or exceeding what he acquired in his final two campaigns. Down the poll, Saginaw County can be fully situated inside Michigan’s eighth District, an open-seat race the Crystal Ball charges as a Toss-up. In 2022, Republican Paul Junge, who’s once more the GOP’s nominee, misplaced by simply over 10 factors districtwide to now-retiring Rep. Dan Kildee (D). Junge got here somewhat nearer in Saginaw County, shedding it 51%-45%, so carrying it will most likely be a crucial, however not adequate, ingredient to a Republican flip in MI-8 this yr.

Pennsylvania

As with Michigan, we’re watching a pair of counties which are located outdoors of the state’s main metro facilities and are trending, at the least over the long run, in reverse instructions.

Although it acquired extra buzz in 2020, contemplating one in all its natives led a nationwide ticket, Joe Biden’s native Lackawanna County will stay on our radar. Throughout his time campaigning on the nationwide stage, Biden has ceaselessly referenced his upbringing in Scranton, the county’s largest metropolis, when attempting to narrate to center class voters.

Given its blue-collar character, Lackawanna noticed a big redshift from 2012 to 2016: after giving Obama an almost 30-point margin in 2012, Hillary Clinton claimed solely a 49.8% plurality there. 4 years later, Biden clawed again a number of share factors, however his 54%-45% vote there was weaker than what current pre-Trump period Democratic nominees acquired. Nonetheless, because the 2020 outcomes got here in, we puzzled how Lackawanna County would have regarded if Democrats had not nominated Biden. From 2008 to 2016, Lackawanna County tracked nearly completely with Mahoning County, Ohio—the house of Youngstown, it’s one other blue-collar space that has been hit by deindustrialization. After shedding Mahoning County by 3 factors in 2016, Trump flipped it 50%-48%. Whereas we doubt the distinction would have been that enormous, we may have seen a non-Biden Democrat faring at the least somewhat worse in Lackawanna County.

Whereas realignment has begun to take maintain down the poll—in 2022, for instance, now-Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) received by practically 15 factors however fell a bit in need of matching Obama’s 2012 margin in Lackawanna County—not all of Lackawanna County has trended exhausting in opposition to Democrats. Map 2 exhibits how instructional realignment has affected the county since Obama’s elections. A handful of wealthier cities (that even have greater instructional attainment ranges) have mitigated the general pro-Republican pattern to some extent.

Map 2: 2012 – 2020 in Lackawanna County, PA

Total, we’d most likely anticipate Harris’s margin in Lackawanna County to be someplace in between Clinton’s and Biden’s if she have been to be on observe to hold the state.

Following the Susquehanna River southward, Cumberland County, one of many state’s fastest-growing counties outdoors of the Philadelphia metro space, has seen the alternative political pattern. Whereas it’s nonetheless a principally Republican county, its lean, relative to the state as a complete, has turn into much less pronounced over the previous decade. In 2008, Cumberland County was practically 25 factors extra Republican than Pennsylvania general—Obama carried the state by 10 factors however misplaced the county by 14 factors. As Biden narrowly received Pennsylvania in 2020, he practically acquired inside single digits in Cumberland County, shedding it by 10.5%.

The professional-Democratic pattern within the county has principally been fueled by its japanese communities that bump up in opposition to the state capital in Harrisburg. Carlisle, the centrally-located county seat, has equally seen an inflow of non-Pennsylvania natives shifting in. Whereas the county’s western cities are nonetheless overwhelmingly Republican, Harris seemingly has room to enhance on Biden’s topline margin from 2020. Although each Democrats carried the county, Shapiro carried out about 5 factors higher there in 2022 than now-former Gov. Tom Wolf (D) did in 2018—whereas every received comfortably statewide, Wolf did a number of factors higher general.

As with Lackawanna, we aren’t anticipating Cumberland County to truly change sides this yr, nevertheless it may very well be informative from a directional perspective. If it stays stagnant, that will bode nicely for Trump, whereas the Harris marketing campaign would most likely like to carry Trump’s margin inside single digits.

We’d additionally notice that, as with Saginaw County and MI-8, each of our Pennsylvania counties are seeing aggressive Home races. Within the northeast, Lackawanna County has been key to Rep. Matt Cartwright’s (D, PA-8) continued electoral success in an Obama-to-Trump seat. In each 2020 and 2022, he took about 59% in Lackawanna, so he appears prone to outrun Harris there. The present PA-10, held by Republican Scott Perry (R) and encompassing three counties, consists of all however a number of western townships in Cumberland County. In 2022, the end in Cumberland County most mirrored the district general—the opposite two counties in PA-10 are Dauphin, which is mildly blue and is trending away from Republicans, and the northern half of York County, which stays purple. We charge PA-8 as a Toss-up and PA-10 as Leans Republican.

Within the subsequent installment, we’ll transfer to the Solar Belt to take a deeper have a look at Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada.