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On 23 December 2023, the Pakistani army’s media division, Inter Companies Public Relations (ISPR), introduced the check firing of a brand new surface-to-surface missile (SSM) referred to as the “Fatah-II.”
In accordance with the ISPR, the Fatah-II has a spread of 400 km and is “geared up with state-of-the-art avionics, refined navigation system and distinctive flight trajectory.”
The Fatah-II is a brand new addition to Pakistan’s rising stock of guided rockets, constructing upon the Fatah-I a number of launch rocket system (MLRS) and Nasr-series of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM).
Although sharing the identical core designation of “Fatah,” the Fatah-II doesn’t seem like a brand new variant of the Fatah-I. Fairly, the ISPR’s visible footage reveals that the Fatah-II relies on a distinct missile platform, not the Fatah-I line of MLRS. In 2023, International Industrial and Defence Options (GIDS), the business arm representing numerous Pakistan’s state-owned defence contractors, showcased a “Fatah-II” that was an evident evolution of the Fatah-I. This earlier Fatah-II inherited the core design attributes of the Fatah-I, however with an improved vary of over 250 km and accuracy of 10 m round error probe (CEP), in comparison with the Fatah-I’s vary and accuracy of 140 km and 50 m CEP, respectively.
In distinction, this ‘new’ Fatah-II not solely affords a far better vary at 400 km, but it surely additionally appears to be a bigger missile. For instance, the Fatah-I used an eight-cell launch system (which the unique Fatah-II design would have possible reused), whereas the brand new Fatah-II appears to leverage a twin-cell system. Lastly, the design of the brand new Fatah-II additionally displays a number of key variations, equivalent to the dearth of fins on the nosecone, for instance.
By giving an ostensibly totally different missile platform the identical core designation of “Fatah,” Pakistan may very well be shifting in the direction of making the “Fatah” a household of guided rockets. Thus, it’s attainable that the unique Fatah-II can be redesignated as a Fatah-I-based missile, like “Fatah-IB,” to symbolize its direct relationship to the Fatah-I. Total, Pakistan’s funding within the Fatah collection highlights the Pakistan Military’s rising focus to construct its land-based stand-off vary strike capabilities which, in flip, might replicate a broader army effort to constructing Pakistan’s standard deterrence posture.
Unpacking the New Fatah-II
As famous earlier, the revised Fatah-II seems to be a bigger missile in comparison with the unique Fatah-II proven by GIDS in 2023. Curiously, the brand new Fatah-II’s design appears to bear a resemblance to the CM-400AKG, an air-launched anti-ship rocket utilized by the Pakistan Air Drive (PAF) via its JF-17 Thunder multi-role fight plane. Nevertheless, the Fatah-II has a for much longer acknowledged vary than the CM-400AKG (i.e., 400 km to the latter’s 250-280 km). Thus, the Fatah-II is unlikely to be equivalent to the CM-400AKG as, being a land-based missile, it could have a shorter vary. Even when one accounts for an extra booster stage/rocket, it could, at greatest, match the CM-400AKG’s vary, not surpass it.
If one was to imagine a Chinese language connection for the Fatah-II, then the closest missile matching its vary in addition to obvious measurement and design could be the B611M short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) or, doubtlessly, its BP-12A variant. Just like the Fatah-II, the BP-12A has affords a spread of 400 km and, equally, makes use of a two-cell launch cannister system. The Fatah-II bears common resemblance to the B611M and BP-12A, but it surely nonetheless appears to exhibit some variations. For instance, the tail fins of the B611M and BP-12A are proper on the finish of their respective missile’s fuselages; nevertheless, the Fatah-II’s tail fins appear to be barely additional away from the rocket motor/exhaust space. Thus, the Fatah-II could also be an unique missile design.
Whereas one shouldn’t low cost the opportunity of technical assist from the Chinese language, the Fatah-II merely doesn’t absolutely match any identified Chinese language SRBM obtainable for export. Furthermore, there are causes to consider that Pakistan had been engaged on a brand new line of standard ballistic missiles for its personal wants…
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