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A lot of the $10 million Kennedy raised from large-dollar donors by way of Sept. 30 got here from voters who didn’t make any federal donations throughout both the 2016 or 2020 election cycles.
Of those that did, 2,100 donors — giving practically $2 million — beforehand made contributions on the Republican donation service WinRed since 2020. Far fewer donors beforehand gave by way of the Democratic device ActBlue: roughly 1,700 contributors who gave $1.4 million.
Kennedy is operating as a self-described “spoiler,” and the draw that the previous Democrat has with each the GOP and people who don’t have an apparent political house makes him an unpredictable menace to the institution of each events. Some Republicans are already making an attempt to redefine Kennedy as a “typical Democrat,” revealing they’re apprehensive about his attraction to GOP voters.
Each Kennedy and Trump current a basic query to voters, mentioned Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio): “Do you assume the nation has been well-governed by the bipartisan institution for the previous technology?”
“When Kennedy goes on the market and runs towards that institution, he has to understand it most likely finally ends up splitting votes off from President Trump,” mentioned Vance, who has endorsed Trump’s 2024 marketing campaign.
Federal legislation requires campaigns to reveal donations solely from donors who give at the least $200. The POLITICO examination depends on Federal Election Fee knowledge of these large-dollar donors, who make up about two-thirds of Kennedy’s cash raised by way of Sept. 30, the newest marketing campaign finance reporting deadline.
That knowledge reveals greater than 500 of Kennedy’s largest donors gave to Trump’s 2020 marketing campaign, greater than thrice the variety of donors who gave to Biden in that race. And on this cycle, greater than 160 donors have given to each Trump and Kennedy, whereas solely a handful have given to each Biden and Kennedy.
It’s not simply Trump. Greater than 160 of Kennedy’s donors have additionally given to biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, who additionally manufacturers himself as an anti-establishment candidate. One other 100 additionally contributed to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who has leaned into his anti-vaccine stance on the marketing campaign path.
“Some members of our get together like his positions on vaccines, however apart from that he’s a liberal,” mentioned Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.). “That’s not going to work.”
The marketing campaign finance knowledge additionally suggests Kennedy could also be sparking one thing new within the voters: Greater than 60 % of his large-dollar donors don’t have any donation historical past on both ActBlue or WinRed, the 2 events’ major donation platforms, because the begin of 2020. His coalition — of beforehand sidelined donors and Republicans, even when he was operating in a Democratic major — could assist clarify Kennedy’s resolution to run as an unbiased, which he introduced on Oct. 9. (The FEC knowledge covers the interval by way of Sept. 30, earlier than Kennedy’s unbiased bid.)
“No political get together or candidate owns votes … Kennedy welcomes everybody into his coalition regardless of who they supported previously,” marketing campaign spokesperson Stefanie Spear mentioned in an announcement.
The Trump and Biden campaigns didn’t reply to a request for remark.
Some Trump allies mentioned they don’t see Kennedy posing an actual menace come subsequent November, even when some donors have wandering eyes now.
“Oftentimes individuals can donate to somebody that they’re not even voting for simply to see their argument platforms,” mentioned Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.). “We’ve seen these calls among the many kind of junior varsity slate of Republicans in search of the nomination, so I’m not as involved about [donors].”
Kennedy, a longtime environmental lawyer, is maybe greatest identified for his work by way of the nonprofit Youngsters’s Well being Protection, which fights towards vaccination necessities. Whereas he has sought to not make anti-vaccine activism central to his marketing campaign, he appeared earlier than Congress on the invitation of Republicans this summer time to debate “censorship,” the place his skepticism of the Covid-19 vaccine was obvious.
Widespread occupations amongst his donors included well being care professionals similar to physicians, nurses and dentists, in addition to practitioners of different drugs, similar to chiropractors and acupuncturists.
“Frankly, I don’t know what number of voters on the market are prepared to spend their vote on a candidate they assume has no probability to win.”
Twenty % of Kennedy’s newly acquired donors had been from California, together with a number of dozen who listed occupations similar to “actor” or “producer,” probably reflecting his Hollywood connections.
Few individuals imagine Kennedy’s marketing campaign can come near successful the presidency, and it faces important challenges — starting with the duty of getting on the poll in each state with out the backing of a celebration equipment.
“Actually what you’re speaking about is what influence might he have in 5 – 6 states which might be going to be aggressive, [if he’s] on these ballots,” mentioned Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who has not but endorsed within the 2024 race.
“Frankly, I don’t know what number of voters on the market are prepared to spend their vote on a candidate they assume has no probability to win,” he mentioned.
In a extremely aggressive presidential showdown between Biden and Trump, the probably nominees, even small numbers of votes can matter. Political donors are solely a small subset of the voters, however they’re among the many most extremely engaged voters.
“I speak to [Trump] continuously. I feel that he’s not particularly apprehensive about Bobby Kennedy,” Vance mentioned.“I feel he’s really centered on the right way to persuade voters, which is the place he must be.”
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