Lady Luck could ultimately decide whether Biden or Trump wins

This isn’t meant to be an April Idiot’s Day joke. However will good or dangerous luck decide who wins the presidency? Put one other means, Napoleon famously requested of a common “Does he have luck?”

Final week didn’t go effectively for President Joe Biden. Is {that a} matter of dangerous luck, dangerous timing or the fickleness of politics? However, Donald Trump’s luck appears limitless.

A collection of occasions have made Biden’s run for reelection that rather more troublesome. The collision in Baltimore Harbor that introduced down a lot of the Francis Scott Key bridge could have damaging penalties for provide chains as that port is closed, presumably for weeks. One impact is probably going slower financial progress. And clearing the harbor of particles and rebuilding the bridge will check the federal authorities’s competence — for good or unwell.

On Thursday, the Biden staff had scheduled a fundraising bonanza at New York’s Radio Metropolis Music Corridor. Presidents Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama had been among the many headliners. Some $25 million was raised. Whereas pro-Palestinian protestors boycotted the extravaganza, a hurricane of damaging PR was dumping on Biden some 25 miles to the east on Lengthy Island.

At a wake honoring a New York Metropolis policeman shot useless by an assailant with 21 arrests, Biden’s opponent appeared to lend his condolences. The long run marketing campaign adverts from this can be plentiful and devastating. Donald Trump can be proven side-by-side paying his respects to a fallen cop whereas President Biden can be pictured with the big-money elites soliciting marketing campaign funds.

This was merely dangerous luck and dangerous timing. It was pure coincidence that the 2 occasions befell concurrently. What might the president do? If Biden confirmed up, that might have appeared cynical. Had all three Democratic presidents attended the wake, it might have been excessive. Irrespective of, Trump scored massive on this — a matter of luck?

Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s announcement that he was working as an unbiased was definitely not good luck for Group Biden. Kennedy has already made his mark within the polls garnering assist within the low double digits. In an election anticipated to be exceedingly shut, Biden can not afford to lose any votes. It’s unclear whether or not Kennedy will damage Biden or Trump extra. However most consider this isn’t excellent news for staff Biden.

However, Donald Trump has had an amazingly good run of luck.  

Concerning his courtroom circumstances, certainly the trial in Georgia over alleged election tampering is foundering. Atlanta District Legal professional Fani Willis’s private relationship with lead prosecuting lawyer Nathan Wade created the notion of a battle of curiosity and confirmed spectacularly poor judgment. The case is below enchantment. Whereas 4 of the fees have been dismissed, the case is clouded irrespective of how a lot proof of wrongdoing the prosecution might have obtained.  

Within the Mar-a-Lago labeled supplies trial, Trump-appointed decide Aileen Cannon made a number of rulings that appeared very a lot to the defendant’s profit. In any occasion, it’s removed from sure that the trial will start earlier than the election. And, after all, if Trump wins, he can pressure the Justice Division to drop the case or self-pardon.

Within the New York fraud case over Trump’s false inflation of his web price, a bail of $454 million appears extreme to most individuals. That may play out within the courtroom of public opinion. Nevertheless, with Trump unable to discover a lender, the bond was minimize by a few third. After which Trump’s social media firm went public, growing his web price by as a lot as $4 billion.

Biden and his advisers can not ignore this parallel run of fine and dangerous luck. Certainly, Biden have to be baffled by how Trump’s luck appears impervious to misdeed. No matter poor previous Joe does, occasions appear to conspire towards him. Irrespective of how a lot hassle ensnares Trump, a means out materializes. One wonders whether or not Trump himself realizes that.

The aphorism that one makes his or her personal luck might or will not be true. Nevertheless, if the 2024 presidential race continues on the present course, it might be outlined by precisely that. My household motto is best fortunate than good.

When the presidency is lastly determined, after all of the intrusive evaluation, victory and defeat could also be distinguished this fashion. Who had the higher luck? Superb.

Harlan Ullman Ph.D. is a senior advisor on the Atlantic Council and the prime creator of the “shock and awe” navy doctrine. His twelfth e book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD:  How Huge Assaults of Disruption Turned the Looming Existential Hazard to a Divided Nation and the World at Massive,” is offered on Amazon. He might be reached on Twitter @harlankullman.