Kazakhstan’s Balancing Act with Russia, China, and the West

Okazakhstan has been catching the consideration of Western nations just lately. By means of initiatives like China’s Belt and Street Initiative and the complementary Center Hall, each of which go via Kazakhstan, the nation is changing into an essential bridge and a world hub for commerce and diplomacy between the economies of Europe and Asia. Consequently, Kazakhstan’s overseas coverage has main implications for the East and West. Its insurance policies and alliances may significantly affect commerce, financial stability, and diplomatic relations within the wider Eurasian area.

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly acknowledged that Kazakhstan must foster mutually useful and pragmatic cooperation with all overseas companions, together with its neighbours. By prioritizing diplomatic and financial cooperation with Russia, China, and the West, Kazakhstan goals to place itself as a balancing affect in Central Asia.

Russia is among the key commerce and financial companions for Kazakhstan, largely because of their shared Soviet legacy and geographic proximity. The 2 nations have concluded round 300 bilateral agreements, which cowl varied sectors and stay in drive to at the present time.

In the meantime, relations with China have reached new heights in recent times due to high-level visits and agreements. Because of this, China has turn into the nation’s largest commerce companion with bilateral commerce hitting $31 billion in 2023, a notable enhance from over $24 billion in 2022. China is now one of many largest buyers in Kazakhstan, having invested over $24 billion over the previous 18 years. Kazakhstan’s geographical place is extremely useful for the transit of Chinese language items. The Central Asian nation thus stays key to China’s Belt and Street Initiative. Joint initiatives like the event of the Center Hall and the development of a railway line from Ayagoz (Kazakhstan) to Tacheng (China) are making Kazakhstan’s territory an indispensable transit route for China. The nations have additionally mutually abolished visas to strengthen financial and cultural relations.

Astana’s deepening ties with Russia and China pose dilemmas for Western nations. Whereas the EU and the USA would like if Kazakhstan diminished its engagement with Moscow and Beijing, that is unrealistic given Kazakhstan’s geographical proximity, historic linkages, and substantial financial pursuits with its two highly effective neighbours. As an alternative, Kazakhstan’s technique relies on pragmatic issues. Reasonably than selecting sides, this strategy is extra about maximizing nationwide pursuits, necessitating shut cooperation with quick neighbours whereas standing agency on the rules of the UN Constitution—a path adopted these days by many different “center powers” as effectively.

But, Kazakhstan’s interactions with Russia and China don’t take a lot away from its relationship with Western nations. Actually, Kazakhstan acts as a conduit for commerce and collaboration between the East and West. By sustaining shut ties with all sides, Kazakhstan can contribute to decreasing political tensions and facilitating a extra cooperative worldwide ambiance via financial cooperation between Asia and Europe. For instance, cargo transportation through the Center Hall (the Trans-Caspian Worldwide Transport Route), of which Kazakhstan is a key node, noticed a major enhance to 274,200 tons in January 2024 – a 147 % rise from January 2023. This commerce route is rising as a serious different for East-West transportation through Russia, with a capability to deal with as much as 6 million tons of cargo. In 2023, the amount of products transported through this hall reached 2.76 million tons, a 65 % enhance from 2022. The intention is to succeed in an annual throughput capability of 10 million tons by 2027 by upgrading infrastructure and terminal services, increasing ports and rolling inventory, decreasing administrative limitations, and creating favorable situations for transport corporations.

Geopolitically, this 12 months might be vital for Kazakhstan, because the nation is chairing the Shanghai Cooperation Group (SCO), the Collective Safety Treaty Group, the Convention on Interplay and Confidence-Constructing Measures in Asia (CICA), the Group of Turkic States, the Worldwide Fund for Saving the Aral Sea, and the Islamic Meals Safety Group. Holding the chairmanship of the SCO, which was established by China, Russia, and Central Asian states to foster belief amongst its member states, positions Kazakhstan on the forefront of main discussions on safety and financial cooperation in Eurasia. Moreover, as chair of the CICA, Kazakhstan seeks to reinforce dialogue amongst Asian nations, addressing points akin to sustainable growth, financial collaboration, and environmental safety that mirror the varied pursuits and challenges of the Asian continent.

Kazakhstan’s chairmanship of the Worldwide Fund for Saving the Aral Sea is especially poignant, given the ecological disaster the area has been going through. The nation might be hoping to draw worldwide consideration and help for initiatives to rehabilitate the ecology of the Aral Sea and the encircling areas. Lastly, main the Islamic Meals Safety Group provides Kazakhstan the chance to sort out meals safety points inside the Islamic world, an rising essential process amidst local weather change, regional conflicts, and financial disruptions.

Kazakhstan can be hoping to reinforce dialogue and cooperation on bilateral and multilateral ranges with the second version of the Astana Worldwide Discussion board (AIF) to be held in June 2024. Worldwide leaders meet yearly on the discussion board to debate peacemaking, local weather change, power safety, monetary stability, amongst different points. Constructing on the 2023 inaugural convention, the AIF will search to keep up these discussions in response to the rising world complexities.

In the end, Kazakhstan’s strategy revolves round cooperation, dialogue, and mutual profit. This path is dictated by pragmatic necessity, given Kazakhstan’s geopolitical positioning in Eurasia. Surrounded by highly effective neighbours and key world actors, Kazakhstan has no different different however to craft and implement a balanced overseas coverage, which protects its nationwide safety. These alliances are creating new commerce and change routes that transcend conventional geopolitical traces. In a world marked by shifting energy dynamics and rising world challenges, Kazakhstan’s even-handed strategy could possibly be an instance for different nations aiming to retain their sovereignty whereas actively taking part in world affairs.

[Photo by Akorda, the Presidential Palace of Kazakhstan]

The views and opinions expressed on this article are these of the writer.

Stefan Antić is a Senior Analysis Fellow on the Middle for Worldwide Relations and Sustainable Growth in Serbia and Managing Editor of Horizons, a quarterly English-language journal.