How Michigan explains American politics

How Republicans gained Michigan, how they misplaced it, and what all of it tells us.

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The “blue wall” as soon as referred to a gaggle of Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast states that, standard knowledge mentioned, “at all times vote for Democrats.” Sadly for Democrats, that was improper, and in 2016 Donald Trump shockingly gained three “blue wall” states — together with, narrowly, the state of Michigan.

It perhaps shouldn’t have been such a shock, although. All three of the “blue” states Trump gained truly had a historical past of electing Republicans on the state stage. Michigan specifically had been absolutely taken over since 2010 by Republicans, who then spent years gutting unions, limiting abortion, loosening environmental protections, and usually simply turning a Republican coverage want listing into regulation. So Trump profitable Michigan was, in a means, simply the end result of a years-long drift to the appropriate there.

However by 2022, one thing had modified dramatically. In a midterm election the place Republicans had been favored, Democrats gained each department of elected authorities in Michigan — governor, state Home, and state Senate. The state Senate specifically had not been beneath Democratic management since 1984. And Democrats received busy utilizing their new energy instantly: repealing a lot of the right-wing laws of the earlier years, passing robust LGBTQ protections, quadrupling a tax credit score for the poor, and allocating a billion {dollars} for the auto trade to transition to electrical vehicles. All of the sudden Michigan was cranking out extra progressive laws than virtually every other state within the US.

So to recap: Michigan was as soon as a blue state, besides it wasn’t truly, and actually over time it received fairly pink, however then it turned an precise blue state. (Once more?) Or one thing like that. Clearly, the reality is that Michigan is a swing state. However the story of every of these swings is definitely key to understanding how US politics work within the 2010s and 2020s. And it may well inform us quite a bit about our subsequent election, too.

Chapters:
0:00 The blue wall
2:42 Maps
4:52 The bellwether
9:51 Exit polls
13:08 2022
15:43 Michigan and the US

Correction: the timeline incorrectly reveals Republicans profitable management of the state Home in 2006. Democrats gained the Home that yr.

Sources:

For Michigan election knowledge we drew from two helpful web sites from the Michigan Division of State. First, they’ve election outcomes all the way down to the county stage going again to the late 90s:

Additionally they have a device that produces election outcomes all the way down to town/township stage:

To indicate nationwide and statewide exit polls over time, we used NBC Information’s knowledge — they’re among the many solely organizations whose granular exit ballot outcomes each nationally and statewide going again a decade are nonetheless publicly accessible.

Listed below are hyperlinks to their Michigan exit polls from 2012-2022:

And listed below are their nationwide exit polls from 2012-2022:

The common per capita private earnings of every Michigan county got here from the US’s Bureau of Financial Evaluation:

The query about whether or not the 2020 election needs to be overturned got here from a Might 2022 ballot by Detroit’s chamber of commerce:

The info on Center Japanese and North African Individuals got here from the 2020 US Census (which was the primary one ever to ask in regards to the US’s MENA inhabitants!):

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