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The Armenian-Azerbaijani peace course of confirmed a constructive growth in December when the 2 nations held direct talks. This seems to concern exterior gamers although, who view the South Caucasus area as an extension of the political battle between the US-led West and Russia in Ukraine. On Dec. 7, 2023, Armenia and Azerbaijan for the primary time issued an sudden joint assertion, with out the involvement of any third get together, by which each nations confirmed their intentions to normalise relations and attain a peace treaty based mostly on the rules of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Additionally for the primary time, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed as a part of the joint assertion to assist one another at worldwide degree. In consequence, Armenia supported Azerbaijan’s initiative to host the UN’s twenty ninth Session of the Convention of Events (COP29) in return for Azerbaijan’s assist for Armenia’s candidacy for membership of the Jap European Group COP Bureau. This historic joint assertion was attainable because of the direct engagement of the events in negotiations with none involvement of third events.
The constructive developments began with the fifth assembly of the state commissions on the delimitation of the state border between Armenia and Azerbaijan held on the shared border. As a part of the method, each Armenia and Azerbaijan accredited the laws of the fee on border delimitation in December.
It’s price emphasizing that every one these constructive developments within the peace course of between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been achieved by way of direct talks, one thing which Azerbaijan had been advocating for some time. Azerbaijan instructed to Armenia holding direct bilateral talks and likewise negotiations in a regional format with the participation of Georgia. The notion behind Azerbaijan’s proposals is to sideline and minimise the disruptive involvement of third events which might be making an attempt to facilitate their geopolitical pursuits by taking the peace course of hostage and viewing it as an extension of the geopolitical rivalry in Ukraine. This has been the case with the involvement of Russia, France/EU and the USA as “intermediaries”.
Publish-colonial angle: the position of France in sustaining Armenia’s occupation coverage
France’s coverage of supporting Armenia and its aggressive nationalistic circles has led to excessive, unhinged actions that contradict UN rules and worldwide regulation. One instance is the current decision adopted on 17 January by the French Senate which requires sanctions in opposition to Azerbaijan for the measures taken to re-establish Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. The irony of the decision is that whereas it affirms Armenia’s proper to defend its “territorial integrity” together with by pressure, it condemns Azerbaijan for defending its territorial integrity and re-establishing its sovereignty. The decision goes additional and requires the discharge of the previous irredentist Armenian leaders who led the occupation of Azerbaijani territory and ethnic cleaning of its Azerbaijani inhabitants, and ordered missile strikes on civilian infrastructure in Ganja and different Azerbaijani cities in 2020, by which dozens of civilians have been killed.
The newest decision by the French Senate is a part of President Macron’s ongoing makes an attempt to insert himself as a “formidable” statesman on the world stage. Nevertheless, these makes an attempt maintain failing and France has turn into an insignificant exterior actor within the South Caucasus.
As a former co-chair of the Minsk Group, France loved the geopolitical privileges of affect within the South Caucasus area due to the lengthy drawn-out Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani lands. The only real goal of France was to make sure the limitless sustainability of the established order, facilitating Armenia’s annexation of the Azerbaijani lands in the long run. Having a big Armenian diaspora and historical past of assist for Armenian irredentism and armed rebellions for the reason that nineteenth century, France views Armenia as a possible satellite tv for pc for use in an try to venture Paris as a worldwide participant amidst its colossal defeats in Africa’s Sahel area. Biased and Armenia- centric French insurance policies in direction of Azerbaijan will be seen within the actions of the previous French ambassador to the UN, Jean-Bernard Mérimée, who through the UN Safety Council session following Armenia’s occupation of Kelbajar district of Azerbaijan in April 1993 instructed excluding Armenia’s identify from the draft decision and including as an alternative the ambiguous time period “native Armenian forces” in an effort to spare Armenia accountability for its actions.
Jean-Bernard Mérimée additionally advocated utilizing the language of Chapter VI of the UN Constitution on the peaceable settlement of disputes, by objecting to using Chapter VII language on taking motion to revive peace and safety, in UN Safety Council Decision 822. In different phrases, France intentionally advocated the Chapter VI formulation, which is named the Pacific Settlement of Disputes, in an effort to defend the occupation of Kelbajar by Armenia and make it a part of an limitless negotiations course of in favour of Armenia.
As a co-chair of the previous Minsk Group from 1997, France placed on a present of being a peace course of mediator. In every advice proposed by the co-chairs it did all the pieces to suggest Armenia-friendly “options”, such because the Madrid Ideas, in an effort to commerce swathes of the occupied Azerbaijani lands for the creation of a Kosovo-type statelet in Azerbaijan’s Karabakh area. This was a part of a colonial mindset to maintain exterior affect within the area. All of the work of France and its companions, the US and Russia, aimed to maintain the occupation established order indefinitely. In March 2008, Azerbaijan took the difficulty of the occupied lands to the UN Common Meeting because the inaction of the Minsk Group had created stagnation. France and its companions objected to this try and the French consultant on the UN made it clear that France would vote in opposition to the draft decision. France, the US and Russia along with Armenia voted in opposition to the draft decision. The decision adopted by the UN Common Meeting referred to as for the “quick, full and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian forces from all of the occupied territories of the Republic of Azerbaijan”.
When Armenia began to convey unlawful Armenian settlers from Lebanon, Syria and Armenia to the then occupied lands, this was met with inaction amounting to tacit approval for this demographic engineering coverage from the co-chair nations, together with France. Azerbaijan wished to boost the difficulty of unlawful settlements of their territory and have a fact-finding mission despatched to the occupied lands in 2010, however the Minsk Group co-chairs exerted immense strain on Azerbaijan which had to withdraw its draft decision. In impact, the co-chairs monopolised administration of the battle in an effort to affect and rule the South Caucasus area as colonial powers.
Azerbaijan exposes the weak spot of France, neutralising its makes an attempt to get leverage within the area
With the beginning of the Azerbaijani counteroffensive to finish the occupation of Karabakh in 2020, France was so aggravated that President Macron disseminated pretend information. His groundless and unsubstantiated claims that “Syrian mercenaries are combating on Azerbaijan’s aspect” have been low-cost propaganda invented by Russia and Armenia. Having been defeated in a geopolitical battle over Libya by Turkey the identical 12 months, Macron’s anti-Turkey hysteria culminated in accusations in opposition to Turkey of making hassle within the South Caucasus, forgetting that Turkey is a regional nation bordering all three South Caucasus nations and likewise a detailed pure ally of Azerbaijan. Having loved many years of battle administration via the colonial mechanism of the Minsk Group, France’s chief failed to understand that the stability of energy had already modified in favour of Azerbaijan and Turkey, which has strategic autonomy in contrast to within the Nineties. In October 2020 within the midst of the conflict, when every day the Azerbaijani Military was liberating village after village, city after city, France along with Russia and the USA tried to go a UN Safety Council Decision in an effort to nullify the 4 SC resolutions adopted within the Nineties calling for the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Karabakh.
President Macron’s irrational remarks that “We is not going to settle for Azerbaijani management over Nagorno-Karabakh” contradicted worldwide regulation and the idea of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of sovereign states, and will be seen because the climax of his shortsighted view of international coverage. In the meantime, French nationals participating within the conflict in opposition to Azerbaijan as international mercenaries have been one thing the Élysée Palace didn’t deal with, in contrast to its powerful prison measures in opposition to French nationals becoming a member of conflicts in Syria and Iraq. When the Second Karabakh Warfare ended with a trilateral assertion in November 2020, France and the Minsk Group misplaced their position within the peace course of. They’d been excluded from talks on the trilateral assertion, which elevated French hysteria about Azerbaijan’s victory. Within the new geopolitical realities Turkey’s position had elevated. In a determined try to retain their affect, President Macron’s workplace referred to as for the already out-of-date Minsk Group to be put in control of worldwide supervision of the trilateral assertion in Karabakh. In December 2020 Macron and the French Senate tried to blackmail Azerbaijan by adopting a non-binding decision calling on the French authorities to formally recognise the now defunct Armenian irredentist entity in Karabakh.
As France discovered itself struggling to retain any affect within the South Caucasus area, it stubbornly acted as if the useless Minsk Group nonetheless existed, appointing a brand new “co-chair”, Brice Roquefeuil, in 2021. The appointment was rejected by Azerbaijan and Roquefeuil has not been welcome in Azerbaijan ever since. This was one other diplomatic weak spot of the Macron administration.
How France destroyed the EU initiative
With the beginning of EU mediation on account of Charles Michel’s private initiative by the tip of 2021, the French president desperately tried to make use of the EU platform to insert himself into the peace course of. Following the Jap Partnership Summit in Brussels in December 2021, Emmanuel Macron appeared in a lodge the place he met the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders for a photograph alternative. Macron tried to play a “mediator” position and posted his pictures on X (Twitter). By doing so the French president was making an attempt to current himself because the “protector” of Armenians for his home base in addition to to faux that France is a “world” energy.
Armenia refused to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and continued its army provocation, not taking the Brussels format for talks critically. It launched a army assault on Azerbaijani positions on the conditional border on 12 September 2022 which kicked off giant scale combating. Azerbaijan’s countermeasures and important retaliation in opposition to the Armenian army targets pressured Armenia and its exterior backers to recognise Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh on the First European Political Group Summit in Prague on 6 October 2022 with the participation of Macron and Michel. And but once more Emmanuel Macron bought his photograph alternative.
Azerbaijani civil society activists staged protests on the Lachin street in opposition to Armenia’s transportation of landmines and weapons, in opposition to the unlawful financial actions of Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan within the previously Russian-controlled zone of Karabakh in an effort to create financial income for Armenian irredentism in opposition to Azerbaijan, and in opposition to environmental damages to the forests of Karabakh. Armenia began to disseminate a pretend narrative a few so referred to as “blockade” and France along with Armenia tried to go a draft decision on the UN SC in December 2022. As a everlasting member of the Safety Council, France ready a pro-Armenia draft decision by which it dramatized and falsely offered the state of affairs on the Khankendi-Lachin street as a “humanitarian catastrophe”. This try was led by Macron’s workplace immediately and his international coverage advisors. Because of a ten-day diplomatic battle France conceded yet one more diplomatic defeat by abandoning the draft, which had needed to undergo a number of editions within the dialogue, ultimately shedding its essential targets and turning into irrelevant.
Macron’s particular obsession with Armenia continued. Although Macron was given a possibility to participate in Michel’s mediation, Macron and Michel appeared to need to change the Brussels format to incorporate the French president. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan swiftly rejected the change and insisted on the trilateral format that had been the premise of the EU’s preliminary engagement. After Macron’s unacceptable remarks on French TV, Brussels wished so as to add the French president to the format for the 7 December 2022 assembly. Nevertheless, President Ilham Aliyev rejected Macron’s participation and declined to journey to Brussels if Macron was current. Then Brussels tried to facilitate Macron’s involvement by including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, as Azerbaijan thought that Germany would possibly include and stability France’s undiplomatic Armenia-centric place. Olaf Scholz additionally participated within the second European Political Group Assembly in June 2023.
In his assembly with leaders of the Armenian radical Dashnak get together and Armenian neighborhood of Marseilles in June 2023, President Macron mentioned that he would proceed to take “motion” relating to Karabakh and his dedication shouldn’t be doubted. Macron additional acknowledged that France had despatched a army attaché to its embassy in Yerevan which “means one thing”. Overconfident, the French president went on to say, “I’ve and can proceed to place extra strain on Aliyev than Pashinyan himself. I’m the one one who has a transparent place and message on the Karabakh subject.”
As Armenia continued to smuggle weapons and illicit items, together with landmines produced in Armenia in 2021, into Karabakh by way of the Lachin street, Azerbaijan needed to take issues into its personal fingers and established a border crossing level, as is the inalienable proper of a sovereign nation. Seeing its incapacity to maintain the Armenian irredentist claims and venture its affect within the Karabakh area of Azerbaijan, France paradoxically condemned a sovereign nation’s authorized actions to regulate its personal borders by itself sovereign land.
President Macron vowed to convey worldwide diplomatic pressure to bear to permit the stream of illicit items and unchecked journey by way of the Lachin street in April 2023. Regardless of the French propaganda assaults in opposition to Azerbaijan, Paris failed but once more. The present of vehicles lining as much as cross the border, which was an thought of the French presidency to violate Azerbaijan’s sovereignty underneath the pretext of “humanitarian support”, was fully debunked and nullified by Azerbaijan.
With the native anti-terror measures launched by Azerbaijan on 19 September 2023, the period of a gray zone and Armenian unlawful irredentist regime got here to an finish inside lower than 23 hours. As soon as once more, France tried to go a decision on the UN SC and failed miserably. Assembly on the sidelines of an EU summit in Granada in October 2023, the EU’s Michel, Macron and Scholz with the participation of Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan adopted a bizarre doc with out Azerbaijan’s participation. Azerbaijan had refused to attend the assembly following the refusal of Macron and Scholz to permit Turkish President Erdogan’s participation. For the reason that Turkish president destroyed French actions in Libya and the East Med, Macron thought he may obtain one thing in opposition to Turkey. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan as soon as once more struck a blow to the French president’s hopes, making him irrelevant to the method. Macron additionally broken the EU initiative, as by placing his signature to the Granada doc Charles Michel primarily sidelined himself and the EU as a “mediator”. Since then Michel’s mediation and the Brussels course of have been useless.
After going through crushing geopolitical defeats within the Sahel area France suffered devastating diplomatic defeats within the South Caucasus by Azerbaijan. The publicity and expulsion of French intelligence brokers on the French embassy in Baku inflicted one other blow to Macron’s France. France is a declining energy and its neocolonial vanity that it could actually intimidate smaller states by way of worldwide establishments has been shattered within the case of Azerbaijan. This proves that states defending their sovereignty and pursuing a realist international coverage with a powerful alliance of regional states equivalent to Turkey and Israel can roll again the battle administration geopolitical mechanism and colonialist insurance policies of the large powers. The case of Azerbaijan is a mannequin for that. Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His analysis space covers the South Caucasus and Iran.
[Photo of IAEA Imagebank, via Wikimedia Commons]
Rufat Ahmadzada is a graduate of Metropolis, College of London. His analysis space covers the South Caucasus and Iran. The views expressed on this article are these of the writer and don’t essentially replicate TGP’s editorial stance.
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