Political surveys misplaced numerous help after the 2016 presidential election the place Donald Trump persistently trailed in main polls however ended up profitable the race. NBC Information’ Joshua Johnson is joined by polling consultants to interrupt down who performs these polls and learn how to know which of them to belief forward of the midterms.
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We must factor in inflation now.. in assessment of trump . Worse than two Hitlers? Has to be …since round august . Could hit three by end of year ! Stay tuned
Polls are literally a rough idea and nothing more. They seem to ignore Gen Z, Millennials, and over sample older voters. Just go vote!
Honestly, I do not pay attention to them anymore. I'm all about Me 💯👍
Red Wave!
#teamtrump
Cocaine and Ho’s , Ho’s and Cocaine, Pelosi grinder hammer time 🔨🔨🔨🔨🔨🔨🔨🔨🔨🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈🏳️🌈
Liberal political polls are just leftwing propaganda ……
Polls only fail when Dems start losing lol
I always try to manipulate the poles by trying to scare the people in my party that the other party is doing better than they really are. I always vote in polls for the GQP. We'll never vote for one of those idiots embracing ignorance trying to manipulate the stupid people in our country. Too bad there's so many 😎
Hillary Clinton was a landslide and senator Bernie Sanders is more popular than Biden and Harris combined and senator Bernie Sanders progressive Hispanic blacks asians native might stay home or vote Republican or third parties like in 2016 and young Hispanic blacks asians don't like Obama
Jill Biden called Mexican tacos maybe Biden loses Hispanic and independents all senator Bernie Sanders people and the democratic party didn't listen to Bernie Sanders economic issues and wallstreet TPP democratic elites wanted more money and Joe Biden doesn't have a base only senator Bernie Sanders has a bigger base today
"If Ivanka weren't my daughter, perhaps I'd be dating her." –Donald 'Stable Genius' Trump
I have never been "polled" in my life. NEVER met a 'pollster', I haven't even ever met a census taker.
I still have the same land line for 23 years. I'm off all call lists, they spread the word I have an emergency air horn for their ear drum. LOL
Lol…
Tell pollsters the opposite of what you actually mean.
Misreading stats is only one problem – a big one, but just one. Because stats can lie all by themselves. All you have to do is to ask unanswerable questions, leading questions, biased questions, questions that assume a particular view as a starting point, and many more such. All of which I have encountered every single time I have been asked to take a poll. You can run the numbers on these polls, but one person thinks an answer means one thing, and another person another thing, and in the end you know nothing about what anyone thinks.
In addition, the "answers" are all given for respondents to choose from. Things like "agree", "disagree", "strongly" (or not), etc. Never any mention of "WHY" . Maybe the biggest three-letter question one could ever ask, and the most informative! And you expect to get anything real from these polls? They don't even begin to scratch a surface – any surface. A micrometer scratch on a kilometer sphere just has no depth, and reveals almost nothing.
How about sample size? A few thousand "likely voters"? Out of how many? And what sigma of confidence do you get? I see plus or minus 3 or 4 percentage points claimed all the time. 3 or 4 percentage points? It's a little narrower than nothing, but it's far from definitive, and I have no confidence in that level of confidence. It's merely a hint. Maybe. Unless you've got an "outlier" on your hands. Then you can be utterly fooled. And that can easily happen one time out of ten or twenty. Not much confidence there. Outliers that are that common reveal a statistical framework that is weak at best, useless at worst. Things like the 2016 election results can catch you unawares all too often, and scarcely an election goes by that you don't see "surprises", sometimes a lot of them.
So phooey on the standard confidence levels. The standards are too low. They're not raised because it costs money , too much money, to raise them enough to be confident. You have to interview too many people, people harder to reach, and wait too long for data accumulation. It becomes untimely. And what's that worth?
So there's not exactly an easy way out. Stats tell you that up front. And pollsters either know it or should know it. You can get all that stuff merely by auditing a first-term stats class. It's fundamental. It's the arithmetic of stats and polls.
Sorry! I remain skeptical. No – unconvinced. No – unbelieving .