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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Most districts within the Home, 379 of the 435, have solely backed nominees from solely one of many main events in presidential elections since 2008.
— This leaves 56 districts which have voted not less than as soon as for each events.
— Districts that backed Barack Obama twice after which did the identical for Donald Trump make up essentially the most quite a few non-straight celebration group, and most of these districts have Republicans in Congress.
— Democrats, nonetheless, maintain 4 of the 5 “bellwether” districts which have backed the winners of the final 4 presidential elections.
District loyalty since 2008
Final week, we took a have a look at some longer-term district-level developments—our evaluation was made doable by Dave’s Redistricting App (DRA), a free program that not too long ago launched presidential precinct-level information for many states going again to the 2008 election. This week, we’re going to dig a little bit deeper.
Of the 435 districts within the Home, the overwhelming majority of districts have voted straight celebration since 2008—this could not come as an enormous shock to our readers. All instructed, 379 districts began in 2008 by backing the nominee of both celebration and haven’t deviated since. Democrats, although, begin off with a bit of a better “ground” than Republicans: 203 seats have voted straight Democratic over the 4 elections we’re contemplating whereas 176 have solely backed Republicans.
Whereas there are actually a number of of those straight-party seats which can be essential within the total battle for the Home—a few of them have stayed with one celebration by constantly slender margins, as an illustration—the cross-party districts have additionally performed an outsized position in figuring out the chamber’s majority.
If 379 districts have been frequently partisan, that leaves 56 districts which have backed both celebration not less than as soon as. Map 1 highlights these districts (click on on the map for a bigger model).
Map 1: Non-straight celebration districts, 2008-2020
Notice: The Alaska At-Massive and Hawaii districts have been straight-party, so are omitted from the map.
Moreover, Desk 1 lists the 56 non-straight ticket districts by their present illustration in Congress.
Desk 1: Non-straight celebration districts, 2008-2020
As Desk 1 reveals, every of the 56 non-straight ticket districts all fall into 1 of 11 classes, with some clearly being extra quite a few than others. In what follows, we’ll go into every class and contemplate the districts that they include.
On a little bit of a programming be aware, the tables that comply with all replicate the two-party Democratic minus Republican proportion level margin of a given district annually. The supply is, after all, DRA.
D/R/R/R (“One time period of Obama was sufficient, thanks”)
The primary group of districts we’ll focus on are those that went for Obama in 2008 however have since been within the Republican column. This was one of many bigger classes in Desk 1, with 14 districts whole. This isn’t too surprising, contemplating Obama’s 2008 displaying, at a really broad stage, represented the fashionable high-water mark for Democrats on the nationwide stage—so it might stand to motive that they weren’t in a position to win again a number of districts in subsequent elections that have been much less lopsided.
Final week, we flagged Wisconsin because the “poster little one” for Obama’s overperformance in his residence area, the Midwest. With that, 3 of the Badger State’s 8 seats are on this group: Districts 6, 7, and eight. All three are north of Interstate 94 (an stretch we singled out final week), in order that they cowl the non-Madison, non-Milwaukee components of the state. Other than Obama’s personal strengths in 2008, the backlash to the Iraq Conflict probably labored towards Republicans in an space that has been anti-war in some key historic elections.
Obama’s 2008 Midwestern mojo was additionally evident next-door in Michigan, the place he posted one of the best results of any Democratic nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. 4 Michigan districts are on this class: Districts 1 and 5, which take up the northern and southern extremes of the state, respectively, in addition to Districts 2 and 4; the previous is a big rural seat whereas the latter runs south of the Grand Rapids space. Although the 4th, the place Biden carried out higher than Obama did in 2012, could also be a respectable Democratic goal within the not-so distant future, the opposite three ought to stay double-digit Republican seats.
The one Democratic-held seat on this group is WA-3, the place now-Blue Canine Coalition Co-Chair Marie Gluesenkamp Perez gained in upset towards a weak Republican, far-right veteran Joe Kent, in 2022—a rematch seems probably this 12 months.
Different comparatively marginal districts on this class embrace Lengthy Island’s NY-1 and OH-10. The previous was a slender Biden-won seat earlier than a latest mid-decade redistricting, and within the latter, long-serving Rep. Mike Turner (R) sometimes overperforms fundamentals on this Dayton-based seat.
Obama would have carried Montana’s 1st District in 2008 and Biden got here nearer to carrying it than Obama did in 2012. Although we now have Rep. Ryan Zinke (R) as a favourite, his 2022 win in what was then a newly-created seat was not spectacular, and Sen. Jon Tester (D) appears more likely to carry this seat so long as his race stays aggressive.
Staying out west, Obama carried Nevada’s 2nd District by lower than half of a proportion level in 2008. This district, which has by no means despatched a Democrat to Congress, is now a double-digit Republican seat—regardless of the presence of blue-trending Washoe County, NV-2 consists of a lot of the state’s rural “cow counties.”
Lastly, Florida, a state that will likely be making another appearances in a while, had two districts on this class. District 13, a subtly gerrymandered seat, is totally inside Pinellas County however avoids many of St. Petersburg’s Black precincts. We’ve the seat as Probably Republican. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R) gained an open seat race solely by single-digits in 2022, a banner cycle for Florida Republicans. District 21 pairs the northern excessive of the state’s Gold Coast with components of the Treasure Coast—the latter of which has a extra working class taste. Democrats held this seat in 2012 and 2014, however Rep. Brian Mast (R) has since been comfortably reelected.
R/R/R/D (“Republicans till we received sick of Trump”)
In what is basically the alternative class of our first group, six districts voted just for Republicans till 2020—though, like the primary group, Democrats at the moment maintain simply one in all these seats.
In Arizona, Obama would have misplaced Districts 1 and 6 by double-digits every time he was the Democratic nominee. Hillary Clinton misplaced every by about 5 factors, however by 2020, Biden very narrowly carried them. Each seats are held by Republicans who prevailed in a equally shut trend in 2022. We’ve had AZ-1, which incorporates a part of Phoenix correct and all of Scottsdale, as a Toss-up all cycle and we not too long ago moved AZ-6, which is a Tucson-area seat, into our best class.
NJ-7 (based mostly within the state’s Skylands area) and VA-2 (Virginia Seashore) each have first-term Republicans who we at the moment peg as slight favorites. Each seats had Democratic incumbents earlier than 2022, however every received much less blue in redistricting—sufficient to assist allow now-Reps. Tom Kean (R, NJ-7) and Jen Kiggans (R, VA-2) to prevail.
In 2021, New Jersey and Virginia each held gubernatorial elections, the place the 2 aforementioned districts appeared to diverge, not less than when contemplating longer-term developments. Lots of NJ-7’s core municipalities trended blue from 2013 to 2021, whereas throughout the identical span, Virginia Seashore/Hampton Roads was Virginia’s most red-trending metro space.
CA-40, which is held by Rep. Younger Kim (R) and consists of a lot of western Orange County, is a Probably Republican seat that doesn’t appear to be an particularly promising Democratic goal. This 51%-49% Biden seat is simply redder down the poll: Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), as an illustration, fell just below 45% there in each 2018 and 2022.
The one Democratic-held seat on this group is KS-3, held by three-term Rep. Sharice Davids. The core of this district is Johnson County, which incorporates Kansas Metropolis’s suburbs and has a 57% faculty attainment charge. In a seat would have matched the nationwide well-liked vote nearly precisely in 2020, Davids was reelected by 12 factors in 2022.
D/D/D/R (“Democrats for Trump’s reelection”)
Two districts backed solely Democratic nominees earlier than flipping to Trump in 2020. Each are closely Hispanic, and we now have talked about every not less than a couple of instances over the previous few years: FL-28 and TX-15.
FL-28, one in all three closely Cuban districts in South Florida, started as a marginal Obama-won seat. As Obama’s numbers improved with Hispanics in 2012, he carried it by greater than 10 factors. Trump’s unpopularity with Cubans pushed the district much more Democratic in 2016. Then, as with Miami-Dade County total, FL-28 shifted arduous to Republicans.
TX-15, a South Texas seat, was remarkably secure from 2008 to 2016, at all times giving Democratic nominees someplace between a 12-14% margin. In 2020, Trump flipped the present district by 3 factors, though we might be aware that earlier than redistricting, the model of the district that was in place for 2020 would have narrowly backed Biden.
Republicans maintain each of those districts.
D/D/R/R (“Obama-to-Trump”)
The biggest class of the districts we’re contemplating on this article is the D/D/R/R group—these are the true “Obama-to-Trump” seats. Republicans at the moment maintain a 13-3 benefit on this set.
We’ll begin with the three Democratic-held seats, all of which we’ve talked about a number of instances in latest cycles and all of which have veteran members by this level. Reps. Matt Cartwright (D, PA-8) and Jared Golden (D, ME-2) each maintain seats that we charge as Toss-ups. In the meantime, we now have Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D, OH-9), who gained by an unexpectedly giant margin towards a poor-quality opponent in 2022, as a slight favourite for a twenty second time period.
The 13 remaining districts have an overwhelmingly Midwestern orientation, although three exceptions got here in New Jersey and New York. NJ-2, held by the party-switching Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) is, when it comes to its developments, the alternative of the aforementioned NJ-7. On Lengthy Island, NY-2 has remained a comparatively marginal Obama-to-Trump seat whereas NY-21, the “North Nation” seat, has shifted significantly rightward because the Obama period. The latter is held by Home Republican Convention Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, whose ideological trajectory has been in sync with that of her district.
This group additionally consists of three Iowa seats, one from Michigan, and two apiece from Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin. Nonetheless, all these districts aren’t equally aggressive. For example, we highlighted OH-6, which noticed the biggest swing between 2008 and 2020 of any district, final week as a seat that ought to be Protected Republican going ahead. Districts like OH-14 and MN-8 additionally stand out as in all probability “gone” for Democrats, not less than till the subsequent realignment. However it’s doable that Biden could possibly carry the Des Moines-based IA-3 or Macomb County’s MI-10 this 12 months—each of which he would have misplaced by lower than a proportion level in 2020.
R/R/D/D (“Former Republicans”)
Arizona’s 4th and California’s forty fifth, the one two districts that voted “double Republican” after which “double Democratic,” are a pair of Solar Belt seats that took considerably totally different paths to the identical class.
Of the 2, AZ-4, held by Democrat Greg Stanton, might be the district that, altogether, higher matches the profile of a traditionally GOP seat that has moved extra Democratic. This majority-white seat takes in components of a number of communities simply east of Phoenix, notably Mesa, Chandler, and Tempe. In 2008, it backed its senator, John McCain by 7 factors, and 4 years later, Mitt Romney did barely higher. Then, in 2016, Hillary Clinton carried it by a couple of factors earlier than it noticed one other acute blue swing, giving Biden a ten.5-point margin.
CA-45, in contrast, is a various Orange County seat that’s plurality Asian by composition and is represented by Republican Michelle Metal. The constituency that the majority accounts for this district’s actions over time will be the sizable Vietnamese bloc within the cities of Backyard Grove and Westminster. After McCain carried the district by almost 5 factors, Romney got here near dropping it in 2012. Precincts in these two cities swung closely towards Romney—maybe McCain’s conflict service towards the Vietcong carried weight right here. Then, in 2016, most CA-45 precincts swung Democratic, as Clinton gained the seat by 14 factors. However by 2020, Biden carried CA-45 by lower than half of Clinton’s margin—he hemorrhaged assist within the Backyard Grove and Westminster parts of the seat.
It’s not arduous to think about a situation in 2024 the place AZ-4 continues to get bluer whereas CA-45 reddens.
D/R/D/D (“#OnlyMitt”)
Six districts supported Obama in 2008, briefly lurched rightward in 2012, then returned to the Democratic column for each 2016 and 2020. These “solely Romney” seats are all upscale suburban seats and are all held by Democrats.
Staying in Orange County, CA-47 and CA-49 each hug the coast and flipped in 2018. Two different seats on this class which have been within the Democratic-held since 2018 are PA-17, which incorporates many suburbs instantly north of Pittsburgh, and VA-10, a Northern Virginia seat that we mentioned final week.
The members from MI-3 and OH-1, which soak up Grand Rapids correct and Cincinnati correct, respectively, represented two newer additions to the Democratic caucus. Reps. Hillary Scholten (D, MI-3) and Greg Landsman (D, OH-1) each gained in 2022 with assist from redistricting, though Democrats didn’t management the method in both state.
R/D/R/R (“Obama’s Sandy enhance”)
Just one district falls into what may very well be referred to as the “anti-Romney” class, because it has backed Republicans in three of the 4 presidential elections we’re contemplating, with the exception coming in 2012.
New York’s eleventh District, which comprises all of Staten Island and a choice of Brooklyn precincts, was a marginal McCain-won seat earlier than it flipped to Obama in 2012. The primary motive in all probability has to do with Obama’s response to Hurricane Sandy, which flooded a lot of New York Metropolis shortly earlier than the 2012 election—so, an “anti-Romney” designation will not be totally truthful, as Romney himself, because the non-incumbent, was not able to assist voters right here (the storm might have additionally impacted turnout patterns in such a method that Obama benefitted).
All that stated, Trump, a brash New Yorker, was a significantly better match, not less than temperamentally, for the district than Romney. Within the final two presidential elections, this district has given Trump excessive single-digit margins. Democrats, not less than for 2024, additionally appear to have significantly better targets within the state than Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R).
D/D/R/D (“The Bellwethers”)
5 districts have picked the proper Electoral School winner since 2008. Regardless of their standing because the minority celebration within the Home, if solely by a small margin, Democrats truly maintain all however one in all these “bellwether” seats—we use that time period a bit loosely as a result of none of those districts have been truly in place over the last 4 presidential elections (keep in mind, we’re utilizing the present congressional maps, created prematurely of 2022 for many states or, in a couple of situations, are brand-new for the 2024 cycle).
In the one Republican-held district (NY-19), first-term Rep. Marc Molinaro received a little bit assist in the state’s mid-decade redistricting however nonetheless has a seat that will have been very barely left of the nationwide vote in 2020.
In 2022, Democrats defended three of the remaining 4 seats with incumbents who have been initially elected in 2018: MI-7 (Lansing), NH-1, and PA-7 (Allentown). In addition they gained the then-newly created CO-8, which appeared north of Denver, in one of many closest outcomes of the cycle.
If 2022 had been extra of a “regular” midterm, it might not have been arduous to check a world the place Republicans got here out of the election holding all 5 of those seats. We at the moment charge NH-1 as Probably Democratic, however we put the opposite 4 in both the Toss-up or Leans columns, making this a gaggle very a lot value watching this 12 months.
R/R/D/R (“The Contrarian”)
If there have been 5 districts which have been presidential bellwethers since 2008, there has solely been one “contrarian” district throughout that point: South Florida’s FL-26.
Held by Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R), who’s now the longest-serving member of the Florida delegation, FL-26 is essentially the most Republican-leaning of the three closely Cuban seats within the Miami space. Hialeah, the biggest metropolis that’s mainly totally contained throughout the district, is instructive. In 2008, McCain carried this almost all-Cuban metropolis 64%-36%. Romney posted a weaker 54%-46% consequence and by 2016, Trump got here inside 200 votes of dropping it town. However South Florida noticed a pointy redshift 4 years later, and Trump’s 2020 margin in Hialeah was even higher than what McCain posted.
Regardless of Clinton’s spectacular displaying right here in 2016, Diaz-Balart has typically run utterly unopposed and he’s not a practical Democratic goal.
R/D/D/R (“Prodigal Republicans”)
One other South Florida seat that has had a novel trajectory was the next-door FL-27, held by two-term Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R). For Republicans, this may very well be thought of the “prodigal son” district: after starting within the purple column, it wandered over to the Democratic facet for 2 elections earlier than returning to the GOP nominee in 2020.
The fundamental actions within the twenty seventh have been much like the twenty sixth. The largest distinction is simply that the twenty seventh is basically a extra Democratic seat: twenty sixth pairs Cubans in Miami with conservative whites within the Naples space whereas the twenty seventh is totally throughout the Miami space and has extra of a white liberal part.
In 2020, Trump’s sturdy displaying in South Florida was solely barely sufficient for him to hold the present twenty seventh. That stated, Salazar ran a few factors forward of Trump in 2020, and we charge her as a transparent favourite this 12 months.
D/R/R/D (“Prodigal Democrats”)
The ultimate class of our sequence options two districts which have been, not less than in presidential races, polar opposites of FL-27. MN-2 and NE-2 backed Obama, switched to Republicans for 2012 and 2016, then returned to the Democratic fold in 2020.
Hled by Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, MN-2 relies in Dakota County; simply south of the Twin Cities metro space, the county’s 44% faculty attainment charge is 10 proportion factors increased than the nation as an entire. As an attention-grabbing apart, although it retained all of Dakota County and was usually much like the present model, if the seat that Craig was first elected to in 2018 have been nonetheless in place, it might have backed Obama in 2012, placing it within the “Bellwether” class.
The final district we’ll go to right here is one which we’ve talked about fairly a bit lately: Nebraska’s 2nd. In 2008, Obama snagged this Omaha-area seat and its single electoral vote by a couple of factors. After Democrats fell brief within the two subsequent elections, Biden carried it by 6 factors. Nonetheless, Rep. Don Bacon (R) has managed to defy the pro-Democratic development in his district, though he’s in a Toss-up race this 12 months.
Our expectation is that Biden will carry NE-2 once more, which helps clarify why Trump, and a few state Republicans, have pushed to scrap the state’s district-level electoral vote allocation format.
Conclusion
Whereas a few of the 56 districts talked about right here won’t be in play on this 12 months, each side have classes the place they might want to carry out nicely. To flip the chamber, Democrats would in all probability prefer to proceed holding a lot of the “Bellwether” seats. On the flip facet, Republicans will need to maintain serve within the set of districts that voted for all their nominees up till Trump in 2020.
One broad takeaway right here may very well be that states which can be gerrymandered are inclined to have fewer non-straight celebration seats.
Beneath a good map, Utah, as an illustration, would nearly actually have a compact, Romney-won seat in Salt Lake County that will have leaned Democratic after 2012. However Republican mappers break up Salt Lake County 4 methods. Additionally it is simple to see Oregon, the place Democrats drew the map, having not less than one district highlighted on Map 1 if it had a much less gerrymandered plan.
This isn’t to say that each one districts in gerrymandered states voted straight-party. Florida, which has a plan that we now have dubbed the “DeSantimander,” has a number of districts on Map 1, although all of them ended up supporting Trump in 2020.
This text additionally serves to strengthen simply how slender the enjoying subject is: the 56 districts talked about on this article make up simply 13% of the overall seats within the chamber—however in a time of shut majorities, they may probably have an outsized affect.
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