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With Donald Trump’s victory within the U.S. presidential election, a brand new chapter of worldwide relations begins. Considered one of his signature statecraft strikes, buying and selling intangibles for tangibles, will current conundrums for South Korea, particularly concerning the way forward for the US Forces Korea (USFK) and the protection burden-sharing negotiations amid Trump’s renewed give attention to isolationist, “America First,” and cost-effective international insurance policies.
Though the precise quantity fluctuates, the price of stationing U.S. troops in Korea, in accordance with the Authorities Accountability Workplace, was $13.4 billion from 2016 to 2019. That equates to a median of $3.5 billion per 12 months, with South Korea kicking in roughly $1 billion in burden-sharing funds. The primary Trump administration questioned the $2 billion deficit, consistent with its behavior of downplaying the intangible value of abroad allies akin to South Korea and Japan – two essential gamers in sustaining regional stability and counterbalancing China and North Korea. Many consultants predict Trump 2.0 won’t digress from this stance. Throughout a marketing campaign speech, Trump bashed the South Korea-U.S. burden-sharing association, naming Seoul a “cash machine” able to paying $10 billion a 12 months – 10 instances the present contribution.
In his first time period, Trump used the specter of USFK withdrawal as leverage in burden-sharing negotiations. Nevertheless, in 2025, such an motion might show disastrous, as it’d ship the improper sign to Kim Jong Un and his regime. North Korea is armed with nuclear weapons and has 1 million energetic troopers. Even a really conservative estimate assesses that one other Korean Battle might price the US $2 trillion, a value many instances larger than the price of sustaining a sturdy USFK with South Korea’s contributions. Many analysts additionally argue that if the US’ East Asian allies have been to fall, authoritarian nations China and Russia would have entry to the western Pacific Ocean any time, which poses an unprecedented existential menace.
Whereas U.S. withdrawal from Korea is an possibility, it might possible deal a ultimate blow to the US’ already waning dedication to uphold the liberal worldwide order. The “hub and spokes” bilateral alliance system would steadily, but inevitably, erode, with Washington’s promise to defend the liberal order and like-minded nations from hurt more and more seen as a bounced test.
Earlier U.S. administrations’ agreements with South Korea on partial protection price protection underscore that such “intangible” elements have lengthy been a part of the equation. The query is whether or not the Trump administration will issue such concerns into its personal deal-making.
Seoul made hurried efforts to finalize a five-year renewal of the burden-sharing settlement simply weeks earlier than the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The brand new plan requires Seoul to extend its contribution to $1.47 billion within the first 12 months (up by 8.3 p.c from the present $1.2 billion) to assist the USFK and related logistics. Whereas the deal is legitimate for 5 years, Trump retains the authority to provoke renegotiations of each international treaties and government orders.
That stated, the safety panorama has undergone drastic modifications since Trump was final in workplace. Whereas China is quickly placing out new warships to claim dominance within the South China Sea and Japanese China Sea, the US Navy (USN) is discovering it tough to match the quantity as a result of excessive decline of the U.S. shipbuilding trade. Though nonetheless proficient at producing state-of-the-art naval vessels, Washington not has a broader civilian shipbuilding ecosystem, producing solely 0.2 p.c of the world’s tonnage. Towards this backdrop, the U.S. has already sought assist from South Korea and Japan, the world’s second and third maritime trade powers, respectively. Though by legislation the USN can not buy vessels from its allies, it could possibly have its warships overhauled and repaired at South Korean and Japanese dockyards. Hanwha, a Korean protection conglomerate, not too long ago signed a contract with the USN for a upkeep, restore, and overhaul (MRO) deal anticipated to exceed $60 billion yearly.
Trump is conscious of this. Throughout a congratulatory name with President Yoon Suk-yeol on November 7 (Korean time), President-elect Trump emphasised the significance of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and particularly highlighted the capabilities of South Korea’s shipbuilding trade. Whereas it’s untimely to attract definitive conclusions at this level, contemplating Trump’s unpredictable nature, the strategic benefit of repairing and sustaining many USN vessels near China is a possible bargaining chip for South Korea in future burden-sharing negotiations. The diminished U.S. shipbuilding trade can’t be resuscitated in a single day, making the bustling dockyards of Seoul a significant benefit for the USN. Even when the US had ample amenities, in contrast with the cross-Pacific route to achieve U.S. dockyards, staying throughout the waters of South Korea and Japan saves a lot time, gas, expenditure, and manpower fatigue, permitting the USN to take care of the very best fight readiness posture within the Pacific.
Inside Washington, whatever the celebration affiliation, South Korea’s readiness to function a “forward-operating dockyard” is seen as a major U.S. nationwide safety “asset.” At this juncture, then, there appears to be extra flexibility for South Korea to navigate below Trump 2.0 than in his first time period. This doesn’t indicate that negotiating with him might be straightforward, however Seoul now possesses extra leverage than earlier than. Even when the brand new protection burden-sharing negotiations convey a excessive price ticket, and even when the 2 nations at instances disagree, the alliance is unlikely to falter.
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