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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chook Tune of the Day
Masked Finch, Edith Falls Rd at -14.1871,132.0824, Roper Gulf, Northern Territory, Australia. For Halloween, little doubt.
* * *
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
Reagan higher on Israel than Biden:
“Reagan referred to as Israeli prime minister Menachem Start. ‘Menachem, it is a holocaust.’ […] Twenty minutes later Start referred to as again, saying he had ordered Sharon to halt the assaults.”
If the USA needed to cease the bombing, we may. pic.twitter.com/VdCk1sDShY
— SDL (@SocDoneLeft) October 29, 2023
To be truthful, possibly Biden’s forgotten how one can choose up a cellphone?
“White Home unveils wide-ranging motion to mitigate AI dangers” [Reuters]. “NetChoice, a nationwide commerce affiliation that features main tech platforms, described the manager order as an ‘AI Crimson Tape Wishlist,’ that may find yourself “stifling new firms and opponents from coming into {the marketplace} and considerably increasing the facility of the federal authorities over American innovation.’” All good, i true, however I doubt very a lot that it’s. Extra: “As a part of the order, the Commerce Division will ‘develop steerage for content material authentication and watermarking’ for labeling objects which might be generated by AI, to verify authorities communications are clear, the White Home stated in a launch.” • Wonderful that AI, which is much extra pernicious than Bitcoin — bullshit technology at scale, based on the outright theft of mental property, and a recipe for crapifying the discourse in near-real time — is being normalized with unbelievable pace. I suppose Bitcoin impacted the monetary sector, so it’s vital.
Our Famously Free Press
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
Solely seven extra days till it’s a full 12 months to election day!
* * *
“Trump holds lead in Iowa ballot whereas Haley ties DeSantis for second” [Politico]. “The ballot additionally discovered that 65 % of possible caucusgoers imagine Trump can win a common election towards President Joe Biden regardless of the authorized challenges the previous president faces — whereas 32 % stated it might be practically not possible for him to beat Biden.”
* * *
Vivek the goat sacrificer:
Now could be the second for Israel to return to its founding premise: the Jewish State has an absolute proper to exist. A Divine reward, gifted to a Divine nation, charged with a Divine objective. Israel has an absolute and unequivocal proper and duty to defend itself to the…
— Vivek Ramaswamy (@VivekGRamaswamy) October 28, 2023
* * *
“Minnesota congressman proclaims major problem to Biden, saying Democrats should give attention to future” [Los Angeles Times]. Oddly, I can’t search any New Hampshire protection in any respect; not the Union-Chief, not the Harmony Monitor. “The Minnesota congressman lastly entered the race himself Friday, asserting exterior the New Hampshire State Home: ‘It’s time for the torch to be handed to a brand new technology of American leaders.’… Phillips stated in his speech that he’d attempt to repair the financial system [horserace], and warned about excessive costs [horserace] and ‘the chaos at our border’ [horserace] — points that may very well be vulnerabilities for Biden in what may very well be a rematch towards former President Trump. However Terry Shumaker, a former DNC member from New Hampshire and longtime Biden supporter, stated[:] ‘I’m not conscious of what his message is,’ he stated. ‘To do properly within the New Hampshire major, you need to have a message.”” • Watch “no message” change into the speaking level.
“My Invitation to America” (e-mail) [Dean Phillips, Phillips for President (CI)]. For some purpose, I can solely discover the speech in its entirety in a couple of YouTube clips. Right here is the message that DNC goon Shumaker was unable to search out, and which the Los Angeles Instances didn’t quote:
However we, America’s exhausted majority, know that one thing has gone terribly, terribly flawed [“carnage”].
We face a disaster of cooperation and of frequent sense.
A disaster of group and of particular person initiative.
And an issue of participation and priorities.
For at present’s America spends extra paying our money owed of the previous than investing in our future.
A majority of our neighbors reside paycheck to paycheck, unable to get forward and save for his or her desires.
Life is just unaffordable.
We fund extra for preventing than we do for feeding.
Companies and the properly off – together with me – get pleasure from extra favorable tax therapy than working households.
Too lots of our kids are hungry and our veterans homeless. Anger and violence is rising, as our life expectancy is falling. Gun violence ravages our communities, and we tolerate it.
America has no well being care, solely sick care that’s dearer than wherever else on this planet.
We’ve no psychological well being system, solely a system of greed and corruption.
Chaos at our border and in our cities is rising, whereas our dedication to countering it’s receding.
Costs are too excessive, healthcare and drugs too costly, and ailments of despair are claiming our kids by way of dependancy and suicide.
We spend billions sending our troopers to international lands and nonetheless haven’t mounted the failures in Flint.
And are so busy preventing each other that we have now ceased the struggle towards our best challenges.
So come on, America! We’re higher! So let’s do higher. It’s time for we [sic], the exhausted majority, to satisfy this second!
“The exhausted majority” may ring a bell. It does with me! (Until “exhaustion” is a subliminal nudge, there’s no point out of Covid in any respect. A 3rd rail?) Readers?
“Opinion: There could also be extra to Dean Phillips’ ‘moon shot’ presidential bid than meets the attention” [CNN]. Has a helpful potted biography of Phillips. “[W]inning an uncontested early major is likely to be the enhance [Phillips] must change into a a lot bigger determine within the nationwide dialog [lol]. It’s arduous to argue that Biden would have ended up selecting Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg for vp and transportation secretary had they not launched their very own ‘long-shot’ presidential runs again in 2019. Not that Phillips is essentially eyeing a cabinet-level place in a second Biden time period. He’s nonetheless on the poll for his congressional seat in his house district in Minnesota, though he’ll possible face a formidable major challenger. Extra possible, Phillips is trying to make use of the opening in New Hampshire to get his title in play for a 2028 presidential run, when Biden will both be on the finish of his term-limits or too previous to run once more.” • “Nationwide dialog” is a inform; a deep-dyed Democrat loyalist. That is certainly the traditional knowledge. Phillips’ biography is attention-grabbing. I don’t see why he’d be working for transportation secretary. He may lose, however my totally unevidenced scorching take is that he’s “in it to win it,” having assessed that Biden is a far weaker candidate than he seems, each politically and bodily/psychically. (Possibly some intelligent Democratic strategist performed him a video timeline of Biden strolling, sitting, standing, speaking, folding deckchairs, and many others.; juiced up, and never. In truth, I’m shocked there isn’t such a factor runnning round.)
“Joe Biden’s Large New Hampshire Blunder” [Politico]. “By scrapping Iowa, demoting New Hampshire from its first-in-the-nation perch and transferring up South Carolina to start the balloting, President Joe Biden hoped to preempt a nuisance major problem that might embarrass him earlier than the overall election. However that could be exactly what he has invited upon himself…. Mixing the passion of a pre-adolescent gazing up at a T-Rex likeness and the completely happy warrior pleasure of his political hero Hubert Humphrey, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) let loose back-to-back ‘wows,’ signed his declaration of candidacy and paid the $1,000 to seem on New Hampshire’s presidential poll. Then he went about preying on New Hampshire’s insecurities with the urge for food of a T-Rex. ‘I discovered to like my nation proper right here in New Hampshire,; Phillips stated, recounting to the photographers, reporters and state officers cramped into the Secretary of State’s capitol workplace his summers spent at a camp within the White Mountains. (The camp is technically in Maine although alongside the New Hampshire border, because the Union Chief reported.) He additionally revealed his inscription on the paperwork: ‘I like New Hampshire.’” • BWA-HA-HA-HA!!!! Cross my coronary heart, no backsies, I wrote the “in it to win it” paragraph earlier than I learn this!
* * *
“Pence ends White Home marketing campaign after struggling to realize traction. ‘This isn’t my time,’ he says” [Associated Press]. “Pence’s determination, greater than two months earlier than the Iowa caucuses that he had staked his marketing campaign on, saves him from accumulating extra debt, in addition to the embarrassment of doubtless failing to qualify for the third Republican major debate, on Nov. 8 in Miami. However his withdrawal is a big blow for a politician who spent years biding his time as Trump’s most loyal lieutenant, solely to be scapegoated throughout their closing days in workplace when Trump turned satisfied that Pence someway had the facility to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election and preserve each males in workplace — which he didn’t. Whereas Pence averted a constitutional disaster by rejecting the scheme, he drew Trump’s fury, in addition to the wrath of lots of Trump’s supporters, who nonetheless believed his lies in regards to the election and see Pence as a traitor. Amongst Trump critics, in the meantime, Pence was seen as an enabler who defended the previous president at each flip and refused to criticize even Trump’s most indefensible actions. In consequence, an Related Press-NORC Middle for Public Affairs Analysis from August discovered that almost all of U.S. adults, 57%, seen Pence negatively, with solely 28% having a optimistic view.” • Oof.
* * *
Newsom in China:
Child had his ft planted, a transparent cost https://t.co/fO51EL0lMO
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) October 29, 2023
That will need to have gone over massive together with his hosts. A minimum of Newsom didn’t kick a pet!
Republican Funhouse
Wait, Johnson’s a liberal Democrat?
The brand new Speaker is a neocon. MAGA received performed. https://t.co/YxWDHW2lya
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 29, 2023
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I should do this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Occasion (“the Democrat Occasion is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Occasion is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Occasion is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Occasion is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Occasion didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Occasion fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the aptitude to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Occasion reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Occasion (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence group.
Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * *
“Andy Kim is making a giant guess on breaking New Jersey Democratic politics” [Politico]. • Andy Kim is a CIA Democrat.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
* * *
Maskstravaganza
Shot:
I had a brand new one this morning.Somebody stated about my masks, “when are you going to be courageous like the remainder of us”.
— tern (@1goodtern) October 29, 2023
Extraordinary psychological gyrations!
Chaser:
When are you going to be courageous and take off that parachute?
(with due to @equibotanica) pic.twitter.com/KADwyCnZBR
— tern (@1goodtern) October 29, 2023
s
* * *Oh for pity’s sake:
“Oh, yay, Hotez is definitely masking!”
“Wait…is he sporting that KN95 the other way up…and over his glasses?” pic.twitter.com/IfTOfwmfzS
— Michael R. Hicks, COVID Dissident (@Michael59503746) October 29, 2023
Hotez is being careless and silly, and setting a foul instance. WTF?
* * *
N95 electrostatic explainer:
An ffp2+/n95+ masks would not simply work like a web, catching objects which might be too massive for the online.As air passes out and in, the layers of the masks generate an electrostatic cost, and the cost attracts microscopic particles like airborne viruses or micro organism or asbestos. pic.twitter.com/W0DY5cdwIF
— tern (@1goodtern) October 30, 2023
Covid is Airborne
The CBS 60 Minutes program implies that airborne is lastly getting lots of play. Keep in mind the Skagit Valley refrain? One of many first circumstances that confirmed how aerosol transmission in a “3-C’s” (closed, crowded, close-contact) setting led to super-spreading occasions. Right here it’s:
I sang with the Symphony Tacoma Voices when this occurred — a choir not too distant from Skagit Valley. Choirs have since been REELING. Music training orgs commissioned a examine that the world ignored. Now, faculty choirs are each day superspreaders & have been for 3 years. https://t.co/i7BKXGm8uo
— ✨🎶Kristennnn🎶✨ (@singingsox) October 30, 2023
Right here is that examine. In case you spend time in a efficiency area, like a choir, you might discover it helpful–
“Lowering bioaerosol emissions and exposures within the performing arts” [Colorado State University]. From 2021: “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) advocates sustaining six ft from others to stop the unfold of Coronavirus Illness 2019 (COVID-19); nevertheless, that is primarily based on anticipated airborne particles [the study proper says “bio-aerosols“] emitted throughout common respiration. Efficiency artists usually tend to show forced-air respiration (i.e., singing, enjoying musical devices or dancing, amongst different inventive expressions), which is extra like sneezing and coughing. Whereas knowledge is missing, there’s growing consensus that infectious aerosolized particles containing SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 are partly chargeable for international unfold. In response to one current examine, the transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 could also be greater than 13 ft (https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200885). Sadly, many contaminated people don’t understand they’re contaminated; and group actions akin to choir, dance, appearing, or instrument ensembles enhance the danger of unfold. Options are wanted to scale back the danger of viral unfold throughout performances and group observe settings.” Even in 2021, CDC was completely feckless. Right here is the paper.
Airborne assets. Fairly a listing:
Missed one thing wrt COVID transmission & prevention (focus: airborne aerosols)?
✅1,085+ media articles✅415+ science papers✅490+ threads✅movies; infographics; webinars; instruments; scientists’Cntrl-F’ search any tab#AirborneInfoTag to alert me so as to add.https://t.co/QUNsMNh75O
— Alex Huffman, Ph.D. – @ProfHuffman@mstdn.social (@HuffmanLabDU) October 4, 2021
Testing and Monitoring
“Detecting Covid surges is getting tougher, due to a contract dispute” [Politico]. Biobot v. Verily makes Politico (!). “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention desires to switch the agency it has labored with since 2020 to check wastewater for Covid as a way to higher direct public well being assets. However that agency, Massachusetts-based Biobot, has filed a protest, stymieing the transition….. In an interview, CDC Director Mandy Cohen declined to touch upon the specifics of the dispute, saying it was a “contracting state of affairs.’” I don’t imagine that anyone has truly seen the contract. Extra: “The CDC has not defined why it determined to alter contractors, although its cope with Verily[, a subsidiary of Google’s parent company,] is significantly inexpensive. Verily’s contract is for $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract was for about $31 million over lower than a 12 months and a half.” NIH blew a billion {dollars} on a ineffective Lengthy Covid examine. This cash is sofa change. Extra: “Even when Verily is ready to start work quickly, some foresee issues associated to the continuity of the info. ‘The loss is the lack of historic comparability. It’s like ranging from day zero with a brand new surveillance system,’ stated David Larsen, chair of the general public well being division at Syracuse College and a wastewater surveillance researcher. ‘It’s not best to alter strategies.’ A CDC spokesperson stated the problem can be addressed however declined to say how.” • Little question. Usually, I’d be up in arms in regards to the lack of a proxy for case knowledge, however AFAIAK, Biobot’s enterprise mannequin doesn’t contain monetizing the info, and as I’ve stated, it’s a great guess Verily’s does (as a result of in any other case why muscle in with a lowball bid?) Since I believe monetizing wastewater knowledge — and little doubt integrating it with location knowledge, search knowledge, and many others. — is a dystopian undertaking, I’m with Biobot quickly. And I hope they produce the oddly not public contract. Hey, possibly Mandy desires a job in Silicon Valley! She is, in spite of everything, a Democrat….
“Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest towards CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS]. “erily’s bid for the contract was accepted outright by the CDC, which pays the corporate $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract with the CDC was for $31 million over lower than 18 months, or practically three-fold increased. The funding offered by way of varied foundations means Verily may simply underbid some other contract proposition. An epidemiologist aware of these proceedings who requested to not be named remarked, ‘The CDC have to be dumping one thing for a bid that low.’” Hmm. Possibly nuking the historic knowledge is the purpose? Extra: “An important subject at play is the financialization of public well being within the US by way of these private-public enterprises, whereby crucial info illness outbreak, the opioid disaster, and the inhabitants’s common well being indices may be gathered and monopolized by large conglomerates like Alphabet. This has important implications for insurance coverage firms, federal businesses, surveillance of the inhabitants, and extra.” • No duh. To not point out the general public.
“A lapse in COVID wastewater detection is worrying scientists about distorted knowledge” [Salon]. “‘The largest subject to me doing wastewater modeling is simply its disruption,” [Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., a psychologist at Tulane University] informed Salon in a cellphone interview. ‘Individuals depend on this knowledge.’” Tinfoil hat time: Maybe the burying disruption of the info, to CDC, is a function, not a bug. Definitely CDC’s failure to offer a seamless transition would argue in favor of the concept. Then once more: “When the CDC equally transferred contracts within the spring of 2022 from LuminUltra to Biobot, knowledge was unavailable for 150 wastewater websites in 29 states for a number of weeks.” So CDC has kind, and Hanlon’s Razor may apply. Extra: “Andrew Wang, Ph.D., a well being fairness researcher at Northwestern College Feinberg Faculty of Medication, stated he’s involved the swap in contracts might change the pattern processing and analyses in a approach that stops Verily’s knowledge from being immediately in contrast with Biobot’s lots of of websites. The “bumpy” switch is lowering an already inadequate surveillance system, Wang stated.” In the meantime, CDC’s personal tracker is awful, what a shock: “Hoerger stated he’d prefer to see the CDC’s wastewater system ramp up the variety of testing websites it consists of and make its knowledge extra available. ‘It will have been nice in the event that they used their funding to do the kinds of analyses that I’m doing and that others are doing to estimate circumstances, to make forecasts and to take their uncooked wastewater knowledge and put it into metrics that folks truly care about,’ Hoerger stated.”
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind injury, together with character modifications therefrom.
* * *
“SARS-CoV-2 virus discovered emigrate inside neurons and infect the mind” [Pasteur Institute, Medical Xpress]. “For the primary time, researchers on the Institut Pasteur and Université Paris Cité have demonstrated, in an animal mannequin, a attribute frequent to a number of SARS-CoV-2 variants: the power to contaminate the central nervous system. The examine confirms that SARS-CoV-2 is able to infecting human neurons in vitro and migrating into axons, the nerve cell projections that carry info…. ‘On this examine, we demonstrated that an infection of the olfactory bulb is frequent to all variants and never linked to any specific one, nor to any specific scientific manifestation akin to anosmia,’ explains Guilherme Dias de Melo, first creator of the examine and researcher within the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit…. By way of this examine, we have now characterised the neurotropism of SARS-CoV-2. For all of the variants studied, mind an infection by way of the olfactory bulb appears to be a typical function of SARS-CoV-2,” concludes Hervé Bourhy, final creator of the examine and head of the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit.” • Yikes. Word that the mind an infection doesn’t essentially produce anosmia; however it might, relying on the variant. Does some intelligent programmer want to construct a screen-scraping “Yankee Candle Evaluation Index™”?
Elite Maleficence
The UK’s Dominic Cummings (!) from 2021 (!!):
An admission!!!!!
Lastly! They didn’t and STILL don’t perceive that #COVIDisAirborne!
You HAVE to look at this- it’s basic to what went flawed within the UK’s strategy to the pandemic
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/uVUoojEO9s
— Eilir Hughes (@hughes_eilir) Might 26, 2021
I may have missed it, however I don’t recall this getting any play in any respect.
The Jackpot
I’ve been pondering alongside these strains for awhile:
What if the data setting is much extra polluted than even essentially the most pessimistic folks imagine?
— Antiviral Advertising (@antiviral_mktng) October 30, 2023
Extra:
I’m extra hopeful than this account. However, our civilizational response to the pandemic persuades me that one thing on this scale is happening (although naturally we want a “mechanism,” traditionally located, after all).
* * *
Case Knowledge
From BioBot wastewater knowledge, October 30:
Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card!
Regional knowledge:
• “Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest towards CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS] “What emerges from the resumption of Biobot’s evaluation on Friday is that the decline in the latest COVID wave that started in late-June has stalled throughout each area of the nation at excessive ranges of viral transmission [as I’ve been muttering for some time]. In early October, scientist Mike Hoerger, the founding director of Louisiana’s HealthPsych, estimated that by the tip of October transmission charges could be upwards of 745,000 circumstances per day.” • For extra on Biobot, see underneath Testing, supra.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: Prime of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a powerful second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:
Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and knowledge offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid isn’t seasonal, though CDC is attempting to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, knowledge as of October 30:
Hospitalization is leveling out, too. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. October 21:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and knowledge offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:
0.7%. Slight enhance. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and received examined anyhow.)
From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:
Lambert right here: Slight enhance. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for knowledge, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is attempting to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s knowledge, October 9:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:
Sudden massive BA.2.86 look.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO knowledge is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their methodology: “These knowledge have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://knowledge.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Whole: 1,180,403 – 1,180,376 = 27 (27 * 365 = 9855 deaths per 12 months, at present’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to determine that is what the powers-that-be think about “mission completed” for this specific tranche of dying and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 27:
Lambert right here: Based mostly on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’s common enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -19.2 in October of 2023, down from -18.1 within the prior month, and marking the 18th consecutive unfavorable studying to counsel a sustained deterioration in enterprise situations.”
* * *
* * *
As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 32 Worry (earlier shut: 23 Excessive Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Worry). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 30 at 1:52:19 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most! • The goat sacrificers are going to defile the Al Aqsa mosque, and the Rapture Index is down? I hardly had them within the contrarian field!
Class Warfare
“New York Instances tech staff to strike over return-to-office guidelines” [Reuters]. “Tech staff on the New York Instances (NYT.N) plan to strike for half a day on Monday, accusing the writer of trying to unilaterally power them again to the workplace….The New York Instances issued its return-to-office coverage earlier than the tech guild was acknowledged early final 12 months, when staff voted 404-88 to hitch the NewsGuild of New York, making TTG the most important tech union within the U.S. with bargaining rights. Tech staff on the union have been in contract talks with the corporate for greater than a 12 months. ‘The Instances is not solely refusing to acknowledge our rights to discount on return-to-office however is now going a step additional and utilizing it as a tactic to intimidate us,’ stated Kathy Zhang, unit chair for the guild that features software program engineers and knowledge analysts.”
“The Secretive Trade Devouring the U.S. Financial system” [The Atlantic]. “The publicly traded firm is disappearing. In 1996, about 8,000 companies had been listed within the U.S. inventory market. Since then, the nationwide financial system has grown by practically $20 trillion. The inhabitants has elevated by 70 million folks. And but, at present, the variety of American public firms stands at fewer than 4,000. How can that be? One reply is that the private-equity trade is devouring them. … In 2000, private-equity companies managed about 4 % of complete U.S. company fairness. By 2021, that quantity was nearer to twenty %. In different phrases, non-public fairness has been rising practically 5 occasions sooner than the U.S. financial system as an entire…. Most cautious tutorial research discover that though private-equity funds barely outperformed the inventory market on common previous to the early 2000s, they now not accomplish that. While you keep in mind their excessive charges, they seem like a worse funding than a easy index fund.” • As Yves has been saying for a while.
Information of the Wired
“How deep is the mind? The shallow mind speculation” [Nature]. “Deep studying and predictive coding architectures generally assume that inference in neural networks is hierarchical. Nonetheless, largely uncared for in deep studying and predictive coding architectures is the neurobiological proof that every one hierarchical cortical areas, increased or decrease, undertaking to and obtain alerts immediately from subcortical areas. Given these neuroanatomical information, at present’s dominance of cortico-centric, hierarchical architectures in deep studying and predictive coding networks is extremely questionable; such architectures are more likely to be lacking important computational ideas the mind makes use of. On this Perspective, we current the shallow mind speculation: hierarchical cortical processing is built-in with a massively parallel course of to which subcortical areas considerably contribute. This shallow structure exploits the computational capability of cortical microcircuits and thalamo-cortical loops that aren’t included in typical hierarchical deep studying and predictive coding networks. We argue that the shallow mind structure offers a number of crucial advantages over deep hierarchical buildings and a extra full depiction of how mammalian brains obtain quick and versatile computational capabilities.” • So, ML is bullshit? What a shock! And what a vindication of Conway’s Regulation! The perfessors and Silicon Valley bros used the org chart for his or her structure!
“Assyrian Ladies of Letters”” [Archeology]. ” As was completed with a lot Assyrian correspondence, one or each of Zizizi’s dad and mom would have taken a stone cylinder that hung from a twine round their neck and rolled it throughout the envelope’s floor, making a ribbonlike impression or seal. Her mom’s seal depicts tall deerlike figures with lengthy horns standing upright, each leaning on a employees. This seal was distinctive to Ishtar-bashti and functioned like an ID, signaling to Zizizi that the letter was certainly from her mom…. Practically 4,000 years later, archaeologists found the indignant missive throughout excavations on the web site of the traditional metropolis in central Turkey, now generally known as Kültepe, a low, grassy plain topped by a tall mound. Greater than 23,000 cuneiform tablets have been uncovered on the web site. Of those, epigrapher and Assyriologist Cécile Michel of the French Nationwide Middle for Scientific Analysis has curated and interpreted greater than 300 that bear letters written by or to ladies who belonged to a extremely literate Assyrian service provider class.” • Stone cylinders do have the benefit that they’re far much less straightforward to hack…
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are effective! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “Beautyberry simply beginning to strut its stuff.”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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