A Lieberman 2006 Repeat in 2024?

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KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

—Final week, former Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman, a sitting Democratic senator who gained reelection in 2006 as an impartial following a main loss, handed away.

—In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) has signaled he intends to comply with by means of together with his retirement plans, although he has not utterly dominated out an impartial bid.

—In New Jersey, embattled Sen. Bob Menendez (D) declined to hunt renomination however has as a substitute vowed to discover an impartial bid for his seat.

—Whereas we’re nonetheless anticipating Republicans to win in West Virginia and Democrats in New Jersey, Sens. Angus King (I-ME) remains to be a favourite for reelection and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) would even be a prohibitive favourite if he chooses to run.

Extra third occasion motion from sitting senators in 2024?

Final week, Joe Lieberman, one of many extra idiosyncratic political characters of the previous couple of many years, died at 82. In 2006, Lieberman, then a sitting senator, was defeated for renomination however gained reelection as an impartial—over the previous few weeks, a number of sitting senators have not less than toyed with going an identical route.

Lieberman obtained a point out in a Crystal Ball version from a bit of over a month in the past after we appeared on the historical past of split-ticket outcomes between presidential and Senate races. In 1988, as George H. W. Bush grew to become the final Republican to hold Connecticut on the presidential stage, Lieberman ousted three-term Sen. Lowell Weicker, who additionally died throughout the previous 12 months. In that race, Lieberman was a Democrat with a conservative status whereas Weicker was some of the liberal Republican members of the Senate—each would finally stage profitable impartial runs for state workplace. For Weicker, the chance got here in 1990, when he created “A Connecticut Social gathering” and gained the gubernatorial race that 12 months underneath its banner.

Lieberman’s departure from his authentic occasion label was not as voluntary. Although he was the Democrats’ nominee for vice chairman in 2000, he grew to become generally known as a strident defender of the Iraq Conflict—his hawkishness on overseas coverage was additionally one cause why he was reportedly thought of for a similar slot on the GOP’s ticket eight years later. In any case, his assist for the warfare harm him in 2004, when he sought the presidency himself, and later in 2006, when he was up for renomination. Now-Gov. Ned Lamont (D), who launched what was seen initially as an uphill main marketing campaign, made the Iraq Conflict a central difficulty—he finally defeated Lieberman 52%-48%.

As a result of Connecticut lacks a sore loser regulation, Lieberman was capable of flip round and run underneath the “Connecticut for Lieberman” Social gathering. Within the basic election, state and nationwide Republicans didn’t actively assist their very own nominee. On this blue-leaning state, Lieberman, who had some conservative credibility, gained majorities of independents and Republicans and defeated Lamont 50%-40%. Although Lieberman’s third-party run made for one of many cycle’s quirkiest Senate races, it was not unprecedented. In 1970, then-Sen. Thomas Dodd (D-CT) was denied renomination—he ran as an impartial within the basic election and helped Weicker win with a plurality.

Within the subsequent Congress, regardless of the first outcome and his personal friendships throughout the aisle, Lieberman opted to proceed caucusing with Democrats, giving them a 51-49 majority within the chamber. Although he was a vote that Democratic management may rely on more often than not, he continued to take some stands that irritated progressives—particularly, when the Inexpensive Care Act was being negotiated, he was instrumental in sinking the general public choice. By the point his reelection was on the horizon, he was among the many most unpopular senators within the nation and lacked a base. Whereas Republicans gave him the very best job approval marks, they appeared to desire to really run a candidate of their very own. With that, he opted to retire, though he stayed energetic in politics—most lately, he was concerned with the centrist group No Labels.

Lieberman’s place going into 2012 elections, and the way he responded to it, was why we weren’t particularly stunned final month when Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, one other independent-caucusing Democrat, introduced her plans to retire. She was in primarily the identical boat as Lieberman: whereas her approval numbers had been generally optimistic with Republicans, she positioned a transparent third in most three-way trial heats. In October 2023 polling from Noble Predictive Insights, for instance, Sinema took lower than 20% towards the seemingly main occasion nominees, Rep. Ruben Gallego (D, AZ-3) and pro-Trump election denier Kari Lake (R).

In West Virginia, Sen. Joe Manchin (D) introduced his retirement plans in November. Nonetheless, one will get the impression that Manchin, who has been making appearances in areas far exterior of his state in current months, wouldn’t be retiring if he was not up for reelection in what ought to be, once more, considered one of Donald Trump’s finest states this 12 months. In a newer interview, Manchin didn’t utterly rule out the potential for working for his present seat as an impartial, though he maintains that his intention is to go away the Senate subsequent 12 months.

The results of West Virginia’s Might 14 main could have some affect on Manchin’s considering. By now, the Democratic bench within the Mountain State is so skinny that his occasion may conceivably nominate a former Republican. Particularly, former coal government Don Blankenship, who was imprisoned for a time after which sought the GOP nomination towards Manchin in 2018. Blankenship has switched events to run within the Democratic main, though he does face a few seemingly extra bona fide Democrats within the main: Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott and Marine veteran Zach Shrewsbury.

If Blankenship will get by means of the first, it might be simpler to see Manchin taking the plunge—the submitting deadline for independents in West Virginia isn’t till August, which might theoretically give Manchin a while to ponder the state of the race. However whether or not a three-way race would truly be winnable for Democrats could also be one other story. Gov. Jim Justice (R), considered one of Manchin’s successors in Charleston and the seemingly GOP nominee, is usually extra well-liked than Manchin and can, once more, benefit from working in a state that Trump ought to carry by 40 factors. Justice does nonetheless face a reputable main opponent who’s working to his proper, Rep. Alex Mooney (R, WV-2).

Whereas it might stand to cause that Manchin could also be better-positioned if he had been freed from a celebration label that has develop into poisonous in a lot of the state, it might appear that Justice begins out with too excessive of a ground. In 2020, a really straight-ticket 12 months throughout the board, the best-performing statewide Democrat in West Virginia was then-state Treasurer John Perdue. Perdue first gained the workplace in 1996, when the state was blue at most ranges, however was bounced in 2020 by then-state Rep. Riley Moore (R). Moore gained 56%-44%, which, earlier than he introduced his retirement, was principally our prior for a two-way race that featured Manchin. Would Blankenship, working underneath the Democratic label, take sufficient votes from Justice to present Manchin a path to a plurality within the mid-40s? We have now our doubts, though if Manchin did run as an impartial, this not less than wouldn’t be a Secure Republican-rated race anymore (but it surely additionally wouldn’t be a Toss-up).

After which there may be New Jersey. Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) seems to have a simple path to profitable the Democratic nomination—and, with that, the overall election—within the Backyard State. Kim’s present place, although, was hardly inevitable, and he should still have some resistance from the person he’s working to switch.

As a refresher, it was reported final 12 months that a raid of Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-NJ) residence turned up a number of gold bars and different extravagant objects that the Manhattan U.S. Legal professional’s workplace maintained had been bribes in trade for serving to the Egyptian authorities. Confronted with federal corruption expenses, Menendez refused to resign, though many of his colleagues—most notably residence state Sen. Cory Booker (D)—known as on him to take action. Kim, the primary main New Jersey Democrat to name on Menendez to step apart, vowed to run for Menendez’s seat if the senator didn’t resign. Kim made good on his phrase, and launched a marketing campaign for Senate.

Although Menendez finally determined towards in search of the Democratic nomination, Kim’s most distinguished opponent ended up being New Jersey First Woman Tammy Murphy (D). Traditionally, the poll “line” has reigned supreme in state primaries. Basically, in partisan primaries, the candidates that the county-level events favor are given a preferential spot on the poll. Although Murphy secured the traces in counties representing a majority of the citizens, Kim appeared to outhustle his opposition, and beat expectations in most counties the place the traces had been awarded by means of open occasion conventions.

Over the previous few weeks, two main developments pushed the race decidedly in Kim’s favor. First, in late March, Murphy, citing the necessity for partisan unity, introduced she was suspending her marketing campaign. Then, simply days later, a federal decide sided with Kim in a lawsuit the place he aimed to overturn the road system altogether. Though the ruling solely applies to this 12 months’s Democratic main, federal Choose Zahid Quraishi’s opinion is essential of the road as an establishment—state politicos now see the road’s bigger demise as a query of when, not if.

Across the time the trajectory of the first was really breaking in direction of Kim, Menendez appeared to noticeably entertain the concept of working of an impartial. Within the months for the reason that information of his penchant for accumulating gold bars was revealed, Menendez’s approval scores have slid precipitously—in some polls, his approval quantity has been within the single-digits. So we don’t actually see a state of affairs wherein Menendez makes it again to the Senate as an impartial. However, importantly, an energetic marketing campaign would allow Menendez to lift funds to cowl his mounting authorized bills.

Even when Menendez follows by means of, we’re maintaining New Jersey within the Secure Democratic column. A ballot out earlier this week from Emerson School didn’t identify nominees however confirmed a generic Democrat main a generic Republican 49%-42%, whereas Menendez would take 9%. As we’ve seen in numerous different races, impartial candidates are likely to underperform their ballot numbers on Election Day. So it might be a shock if Menendez, particularly given his picture, would truly take a significant-enough share of the vote to really put the seat in play. Equally, we might not be stunned if Kim finally ends up outpolling what a “generic Democrat” would get, or not less than runs forward of Biden. Throughout his first two phrases within the Home, he represented a marginal Trump district and, on this 12 months’s basic election, he’ll have the aura of somebody who took on the machine and gained.

Whereas Manchin and Menendez would face steep odds in these situations, impartial Sens. Angus King (I-ME) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) stay heavy favorites for reelection, though the latter has not formally introduced his plans. Additionally, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) was lately within the information for each declining to endorse Donald Trump for president and declining to rule out changing into an impartial. Simply as Republicans unsuccessfully courted Manchin to jump over to their caucus, we may think about Democrats making an attempt to court docket Murkowski down the street, notably if, as an example, they’re on the unsuitable finish of a 51-49 GOP majority however retain the vice presidential tiebreaker after 2024. So although Murkowski isn’t on the poll once more till 2028, the standing of her occasion affiliation—or eventual non-affiliation—deserves watching, too.