2:00PM Water Cooler 2/28/2024 | naked capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

For G&S followers, for the upcoming Leap 12 months day:

“You’re solely 5 and a bit bit older.”

Hen Music of the Day

Winter Wren, Ferd’s Lavatory, Hamilton, New York, United States.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

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Trump (R): “Trump leads in Wisconsin and overtakes Biden in all swing states” [Washington Examiner]. Yee haw:

Emerson/The Hill ballot of Trump-Biden-RFK Jr-West-Stein matchup in swing states:

• Nevada: Trump +10• North Carolina: Trump +9• Georgia: Trump +9• Arizona: Trump +6• Pennsylvania: Trump +5• Wisconsin: Trump +4• Michigan: Trump +3——NEVADATrump 44% (+10)Biden 34%… https://t.co/ziD9NR1Q8R pic.twitter.com/j8AS8QiUry

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) February 27, 2024

I feel the multiway polls, versus Trump-Biden head-to-head, usually tend to be predictive this 12 months (all different issues being equal), since so many individuals detest each main candidates and are on the lookout for options. After all, 250 days is a very long time in politics, however for the Democrats base — not the professionals — these numbers have to be deeply, existentially disturbing, since they reside in a psychological universe the place “this may’t be taking place.”

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Biden (D): “Ought to Biden Drop Out and Choose a New Candidate? Perhaps Later. It’s nearly panic time” [Jonathan Chait, New York Magazine]. “Trump is at the moment main the nationwide polls by about two factors. In every of the final two elections, the Electoral Faculty has given Trump a transparent benefit, and the present polls present the identical dynamic. The tipping level state within the Electoral Faculty proper now’s Michigan, the place Trump has been main persistently and at the moment has a five-point edge within the polling common. The following greatest likelihood for Biden after Michigan could be North Carolina, the place he trails by 6 p.c, after which Georgia, the place he trails by 6.8 p.c. In order of now, it might take a five-point nationwide swing to make the race a pure toss-up. Holding Biden is sensible if you happen to suppose he’s working only a hair behind Trump. My learn is that he’s in a dire spot, although not fairly a hopeless one. It’s not fairly a break-glass-in-case-of-emergency situation, but when he sees no enchancment inside just a few months, will probably be.” • A “few months” being uncomfortably near the Conference.

Biden (D): “Trump Retains Biden within the Race” [RealClearPolitics]. “Donald Trump is protecting Joe Biden within the race. That is true on a number of ranges; the one which issues most is numerical: Trump can’t draw back within the polls. Trump could find yourself successful, however he seems unable to place Biden away – now or for the rest of the marketing campaign. Biden, subsequently, has motive to remain in and Democrats causes to stay with him… By all approval measures, Biden ought to be heading for the exit, not the marketing campaign path. So, why is he nonetheless working? As a result of in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Biden is outperforming his presidential efficiency, trailing Trump by two factors – even in a five-way contest, he trails 38-41. Regardless of his low approval scores, Biden stays inside placing distance of victory. Biden remains to be in as a result of he’s working towards Trump.” And: “Nevertheless, in the present day’s polling outcomes towards the at the moment unpopular Biden elevate the query of whether or not Trump hit his ceiling in 2020. Whereas Biden is definitely dropping assist, most just isn’t going to Trump; as a substitute, it’s parked within the undecided column or with third-party candidates.” And: “Biden and his crew are nonetheless within the race as a result of Trump has not put him out of it.” • Yep. The place’s that compilation of Biden’s gait issues? The shadows solid by each Biden and Trump loom far bigger than the precise figures of each man.

Biden (D): “It’s nonetheless a Biden referendum. That’s not good for him” [Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call]. “And but, even with Biden’s weak ballot numbers, many Democratic strategists suppose the present president can essentially change the trajectory of the marketing campaign. As soon as voters begin specializing in the final election and evaluating Biden to Trump, they predict, the complete race will change. That’s doable, however it’s not self-evident how or why the present form of the presidential contest would change. In any case, each Trump and Biden have almost common identify identification, and each have been within the public’s highlight for weeks, months and years. We find out about them as a result of we’ve seen them day after day. It’s not as if the present president and the previous commander in chief will say one thing to alter our opinions of them. Individuals know the 2 males very nicely, which is why they’re so sad with the selection they’ve for 2024…. For the second, if the election is both a referendum on Biden or a selection between the 2 nominees, Biden finds himself in serious trouble. He wants November to be about Trump — and particularly about Trump’s most outrageous feedback and most harmful beliefs. That could be the one means for Biden to alter the trajectory of the race and end up the Democratic demographic teams and swing voters he must win.”

Biden (D): “Biden’s Chilly Struggle Nostalgia Is Dooming His Presidency” [Jeet Heer, The Nation]. “The paradox of the Biden presidency is that he and his international coverage crew (notably Secretary of State Antony Blinken, nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan, and White Home aide Brett McGurk) are the final Scoop Jackson Democrats, a crew of neoconservatives and liberal hawks who’re pursuing a wildly anachronistic coverage. This was evident lengthy earlier than October 7, when the Hamas bloodbath and Biden’s ensuing assist for Israel’s devastation of Gaza introduced the issue into stark reduction. The killing fields of Gaza are solely making seen the horrific and ongoing human prices of Biden’s long-standing dedication to an out of date Chilly Struggle liberalism that’s fully insufficient to the challenges of the twenty first century. Like Scoop Jackson, Joe Biden is an over-eager and uncritical fanatic for army Keynesianism—the usage of arms spending to gas financial progress. The best of Chilly Struggle liberalism was to fuse international and home coverage, creating an built-in warfare/welfare state. Jackson, who turned generally known as ‘the senator from Boeing’ for his ardent assist for the airplane producer—a significant employer in Washington State—was the main exponent of the concept lavish authorities funding of armament manufacturing was one of the best path for creating a big unionized workforce drive and a strong home manufacturing sector. The logic right here just isn’t a lot ‘weapons and butter’ however that if you happen to manufacture sufficient weapons, you’ll create sufficient high-paying jobs that may permit Individuals to purchase butter. Underlying this mission is the brute political actuality that it’s simpler to get bipartisan consensus and elite comity (which Biden, nonetheless a person of the Senate in his worldview, all the time seeks) if you happen to push for protection spending reasonably than social spending. Additional, it’s a lot simpler to get funding for social spending (as within the buildup of universities after the Russians launched Sputnik in 1957) if you can also make the case that nationwide safety will depend on it.” • One might, I suppose, view the American Restoration Act as a pivot from this, however it’s actually extra of a parallel mission. And I don’t see Individuals shopping for lots of butter as of late.

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MI: “4 takeaways from the Michigan main” [WaPo]. “Early Wednesday morning, with almost all votes in, Biden was main ‘uncommitted’ 81 p.c to 13 p.c, whereas Trump led former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley 68 p.c to 26 p.c.” 13% “uncommitted” just isn’t a superb quantity for the final in any respect. After lots of foofra about earlier “uncommitted” elections, this: “These uncommitted votes clearly sign one thing fairly completely different — and probably extra troubling for the incumbent president — than these 2012 protest votes. The actual query is whether or not assist could be marshaled in different states and in different methods to make Biden actually really feel as if he wants to alter his methods and thoughts his left flank. The protest vote obtained a foothold after an preliminary false begin in New Hampshire; now it’s about signaling that the motion has some endurance.” Oh, and: “[Dean] Phillips on Tuesday completed in fourth place (2.7 p.c), behind Williamson (3 p.c). Williamson suspended her marketing campaign three weeks in the past.” • Oh nicely.

Spook Nation

“Tucker Carlson: U.S. Intel Businesses Spied On Me Throughout Russia Journey, Leaked To Semafor That I Met Snowden” [RealClearPolitics]. “Tucker Carlson accused U.S. intelligence of hacking his communications and leaking to Semafor that he met with Edward Snowden whereas he was in Russia and mentioned ‘one of many greatest legislation corporations’ within the nation warned him that the U.S. authorities would arrest him if he gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a ‘softball’ interview. ‘The lawyer mentioned very particularly, relying on the questions you ask Putin, you already know, you might be arrested or not,’ Tucker Carlson advised the Lex Fridman podcast in an interview launched Tuesday. ‘He mentioned, ‘Look, rather a lot will depend upon the questions that you simply ask Putin. Should you’re seen as too good to him, you might get arrested whenever you come again….’” • I’ve gotta say, liberal Democrats constructing a twenty first Century Okhrana wasn’t on my bingo card, although I suppose after [genuflects] Brennan and Obama’s “disposition matrix” it ought to have been.

“Obama’s CIA Requested International Intel Businesses To Spy on Trump Marketing campaign” [RealClearPolitics]. RCP once more, WTF. There’s nothing new right here, however it’s a superb abstract of the work that Taibbi, Shellenberger, et al. have carried out. “The revelation that the U.S. intelligence group, underneath the Obama administration, sought the help of the “5 Eyes” intelligence alliance to surveil Donald Trump’s associates earlier than the 2016 election is a chilling reminder of the lengths to which the Deep State will go to guard its pursuits and problem its adversaries…. This bombshell, reported by a crew of impartial journalists, exposes a darkish chapter in American political historical past, the place international intelligence providers had been reportedly mobilized towards a presidential candidate. The alleged operation towards Trump and his associates, which predates the official begin of the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation, is a stark instance of political weaponization of intelligence…. The narrative that has been pushed for years, that the investigation into Trump’s marketing campaign started with an Australian tip a couple of boastful Trump aide, now seems to be a canopy for a extra intensive and coordinated effort to undermine Trump. If experiences are correct, British intelligence started concentrating on Trump on behalf of American intelligence companies as early as 2015, lengthy earlier than the official narrative claims. The implications of this are profound. It suggests an unprecedented degree of collusion between U.S. intelligence companies and their international counterparts to affect the result of an American presidential election. The usage of international intelligence to bypass American legal guidelines and surveillance limitations represents a grave risk to our nation’s sovereignty and the ideas of democracy.” • One can solely marvel who the spooks began surveilling in 2018 and 2019.

Republican Funhouse

“Column: As measles spreads, ‘herd stupidity’ grips Florida’s authorities” [Michael Hiltzick, Los Angeles Times]. “9 circumstances could not appear to be rather a lot, however it’s sufficient to alarm epidemiologists. They level out that measles is among the many most contagious viruses recognized to humankind, which signifies that the circumstances recognized to date are more likely to be the tip of the iceberg. Who’s unconcerned? The chief public well being official of the state of Florida, that’s who. He’s Joseph Ladapo, whom I earlier recognized as ‘essentially the most harmful quack in America.’… Ladapo has now cemented his place on the prime of the record of public officers hazardous to your well being. He did so with a letter issued Feb. 20 to folks with youngsters on the elementary faculty struggling the outbreak. The letter famous that it’s ‘usually advisable’ that youngsters keep residence till the tip of the infectious interval, which he pegged at March 7. However he added: ‘As a result of excessive immunity fee in the neighborhood, in addition to the burden on households and academic price of wholesome youngsters lacking faculty,’ his company would let mother and father or guardians make their very own choices about sending their youngsters to highschool. The letter was additionally notable for what it didn’t say. It didn’t advocate that folks of nonimmunized youngsters get them vaccinated instantly.” And: “However as epidemiologist Katelyn Jetelina noticed on her weblog, Your Native Epidemiologist, whereas the vaccination fee in Florida is simply over 90%, that’s ‘not excessive sufficient — as a result of measles is so contagious, the brink for herd immunity towards measles is 95%. This implies there are pockets within the faculty, different faculties, and a group that measles might burn by means of.’ Measles is already on the march within the U.S. in 2024… To place it one other means, Ladapo’s attraction to the precept of ‘herd immunity’ is outweighed by the herd stupidity of the anti-vaccination motion that he is part of.” • I assume the following declare can be that measles are “delicate”:

I’m so sorry on your loss. Vaccines are important! My mom’s greatest buddy uncovered her to the measles in 1962 when she was pregnant with my sister. My sister might stroll and communicate just a few phrases however by no means progressed previous about 18 months mentally and died at 21 throughout a seizure.

— Ellen G (@svargo1959) February 27, 2024

I hate to file this in a partisan bucket, however Ladapo is an elected….

“10 measles circumstances reported in Florida as criticism rises over prime well being official’s response” [Orlando Sun-Sentinel]. “In the meantime, all media questions on whether or not these circumstances are within the unvaccinated, whether or not the youthful youngsters with measles are siblings of contaminated at Manatee Bay and whether or not the most recent case is in a university pupil have gone unanswered by Florida’s well being officers. Much like the early days of COVID, Florida well being officers usually are not offering solutions to questions the general public needs to know: How did measles get to Florida, is it simply the unvaccinated, how precisely is that this once-eradicated illness spreading in South Florida? How many individuals in Broward County have been vaccinated on the latest occasions? Native well being officers in Broward County and Polk County have redirected reporters inquiries to the Florida Division of Well being’s major communications workplace in Tallahassee. That workplace has not reply to a number of inquires from the South Florida Solar Sentinel and the Orlando Sentinel.” • Commentary:

Democrats en Déshabillé

The notion that Democrats have to “make a case” retains cropping up. No. What the Democrats wanted to have carried out was ship:

The precise VP ran on $2k per 30 days stimulus checks till covid was over. Even cosponsored a invoice for it! Has she talked about it as soon as since Jan 2021? They used The Parliamentarian as an excuse for not giving us $15/min wage. That’s after I knew. https://t.co/W2FLkHITPv pic.twitter.com/R6xz3N3h7y

— AshleyStevens (@The_Acumen) February 28, 2024

So Kamaka owes me much more than 600 bucks (and that “two thousand” determine should have been workshopped). Cf Matt 7:16-20.

“How Panera Bread Ducked California’s New $20 Minimal Wage Regulation” [Bloomberg]. “Billionaire Greg Flynn, who made his fortune working one of many world’s largest restaurant franchise operations, is getting a brand new increase from sourdough loaves and brioche buns That’s as a result of a California legislation that’s about to lift the state minimal wage at fast-food spots to $20 an hour from $16 provides an uncommon exemption for chains that bake bread and promote it as a standalone merchandise. Governor Gavin Newsom pushed for that break, in line with individuals acquainted with the matter. Among the many major beneficiaries is Flynn, a longtime Newsom donor whose California holdings embrace two dozen Panera Bread areas.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

I feel we should always simply assume that Google’s picked a facet within the tradition wars, and act accordingly:

One other basic from Google Gemini. pic.twitter.com/xskbnjw06j

— Charles C. W. Cooke (@charlescwcooke) February 27, 2024

Re-upping this from Hyperlinks two days in the past:

Commentary: “I’m carried out with @Google” Mario Juric. A protracted Tweet. Key paragraph:

I’ve been studying Google’s Gemini injury management posts. I feel they’re merely not telling the reality. For one, their text-only product has the identical (if not worse) points. And second, if you already know a bit about how these fashions are constructed, you already know you don’t get these “incorrect” solutions by means of one-off harmless errors. Gemini’s outputs mirror the numerous, many, FTE-years of labeling efforts, coaching, fine-tuning, immediate design, QA/verification — all iteratively guided by the crew who constructed it. You too can make certain that earlier than releasing it, many individuals have tried the product internally, that many demos got to senior PMs and VPs, that all of them thought it was high-quality, and that all of them in the end signed off on the discharge. With that prior, the steadiness of possibilities is strongly towards the outputs being an harmless bug — as @googlepubpolicy is now making an attempt to spin it: Gemini is a product that features precisely as designed, and an correct reflection of the values individuals who constructed it.

These values seem to incorporate a want to reshape the world in a selected means that’s so robust that it allowed the individuals concerned to rationalize to themselves that it’s not simply acceptable however fascinating to coach their AI to prioritize ideology forward of giving consumer the information.

Google’s whole administration heirarchy signed off on Gemini. It’s doing what they need it to do (like, for instance, MCAS). Undecided how this matches in with Doctorow’s enshittification thesis; this seems like a complete new factor, to me.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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Elite Maleficence

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Biobot drops, conformant to Walgreen positivity information (if that’s certainly not a knowledge artifact).

[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.

[3] (CDC Variants) “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information can be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) Doesn’t assist Biobot information. “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) That’s an enormous drop! It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer stress, went and obtained examined anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, according to Biobot information.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Down, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) About time for one thing to problem JN.1. However what’s “different”? One thing to stay up for, I assume!

Stats Watch

GDP: “United States GDP Development Price” [Trading Economics]. “The US financial system expanded an annualized 3.2% in This autumn 2023, barely under 3.3% within the advance estimate, following a 4.9% fee in Q3. The downward revision is because of personal inventories which subtracted 0.27 pp from the expansion, in comparison with an addition of 0.07 pp seen within the advance estimate. Then again, shopper spending was revised greater (3% vs 2.8% within the advance estimate), led by providers (2.8% vs 2.4%) whereas items rose much less (3.2% vs 3.8%). Additionally, authorities spending rose far more (4.2% vs 3.3%)…..”

Retail: “United States Retail Inventories Ex Autos” [Trading Economics]. “Retail inventories excluding autos in america rose by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2024, following a 0.4% enhance within the prior month. On a yearly foundation, retail inventories excluding autos fell by 1.4% in January.”

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The Bezzle: “Klarna says its AI assistant does the work of 700 individuals after it laid off 700 individuals” [Fast Company]. “One month after taking its OpenAI-powered digital assistant world, the Swedish buy-now, pay-later firm has launched new information touting its capacity to deal with buyer communications, make consumers happier, and even drive higher monetary outcomes.” • We are able to’t make a robotic automobile, however we will automate a fintech name heart.

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At present’s Worry & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 77 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 75 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 28 at 12:55:14 PM ET.

Information of the Wired

I’m not but wired in the present day.

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Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are high-quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From lcm:

lcm write: “Final of the winterberries (Ilex verticillata).” Somewhat small, however I just like the touches of purple towards the wetland.

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