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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Mourning Warbler, Shannondale Springs Wildlife Managment Space, Jefferson, West Virginia, United States. “As per Wil Hershberger, this recording is of an grownup male Mourning Warbler (Geothlypis philadelphia) that was visually recognized and in sight all through the recording. This recording was initially archived as Mourning Warbler, however the identification was later mistakenly modified by an ML archivist as a result of similarity of this chook’s track to the track of Chestnut-sided Warbler (Setophaga pensylvanica). The topic has been modified again to Mourning Warbler as per the recordist.” Class errors abound.
* * *
John Zelnicker was a long-time reader and commenter at Bare Capitalism. He was additionally the instigator of the Bare Capitalism Songboook, now in 4 volumes (due to the songwriting and parodic skills of many NC readers).
He died on Wednesday of this week. From his obituary:
John was a lover of music and books, ladies, know-how, top-shelf Scotch, non secular historical past, philosophy, economics, and taking part in with numbers. He would learn The Lord of the Rings trilogy and attend at the very least one Grateful Useless live performance throughout each summer time break from The Wharton College on the College of Pennsylvania. John was a company hippie, operating his personal tax accounting enterprise whereas carrying hideous tie-dye Crocs.
He was a remarkably gracious man, a Southern gentleman to his core, recklessly beneficiant, and so clever one might hardly sustain with him. John made pals with out even realizing it, and there was by no means a misplaced soul who crossed his path that he didn’t attempt to assist if he might. Through the years, many individuals informed him that he ought to write a memoir, however he most well-liked to share his unbelievable tales in particular person and boy, he might inform one helluva story.
After working with John on the Songbooks, I do know I can converse for all who talked with him once I say that certainly his memoir would have been fairly one thing, and it could have been an honor to have been included inside it.
And:
By no means a fan of fanfare, and with honest apologies to his family and friends, John requested no ceremony or service upon his passing. As an alternative, he hoped that folks would select to honor his life by donating to their native public library or to Penelope Home in Cell, Alabama.
A giant fan of libraries, too, which speaks effectively of him.
–lambert
* * *
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
Friday charts: The election (tied), and Covid (improved).
Kamala’s speeches on economics.
New 737 malfunction (rudder pedals) found as negotiators again on the desk.
* * *
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
* * *
Biden Administration
“These scholar mortgage grace intervals finish this month. Are you ready?” [WaPo]. “In gentle of the chaos, activists and advocacy teams have urged the division to increase the on-ramp interval whereas the litigation continues. The division says a provision within the Fiscal Duty Act prevents the company from extending the grace interval.” • Properly, I can apply that two thousand bucks Biden gave me to the funds, I suppose….
2024
Lower than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) in regards to the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Surroundings Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do observe the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) high battlegrounds. (In fact, we on the skin would possibly as effectively be inspecting the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as below management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Donald Trump opens up huge lead in our election mannequin: Are Kamala Harris’ finest weeks behind her and the place are the 27,000 voters who might determine who wins?” [Daily Mail]. That is aweome; the Day by day Mail really has an election mannequin! “Kamala Harris could have loved her most profitable marketing campaign weeks, in line with our J.L. Companions/DailyMail.com election mannequin which reveals Donald Trump opening up a 10-point lead. The mannequin crunches all the most recent ballot knowledge, in addition to many years value of election outcomes plus financial indicators, to calculate who has the most effective likelihood of profitable the electoral faculty in November. It nonetheless reveals Harris with the most effective likelihood of claiming victory within the common vote (it provides her 50.8 % help now and a 65 % likelihood of ending with extra votes in November). However state-by-state numbers all present the Blue Wall of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan tilting in the direction of Trump, giving him the general benefit on the subject of profitable the White Home. It provides him a 55.2 % likelihood of victory. Harris is on 44.6 %, with a really small likelihood of a tie.” • I’m so outdated I bear in mind when the New York Instances had one in all these (2016, I consider; it was roundly ridiculed, after the occasion):
You’ll be able to click on the dial to get particular person states; Pennsylvania is a toss-up, leaning Trump.
* * *
Kamala (D): “Harris Has a Manufacturing Agenda—in a Truth Sheet” [The American Prospect]. The deck: “Her speech on the economic system was guarded. The main points laid out by the marketing campaign paint a brighter image.” I’d have anticipated it to be the opposite method spherical; a “truth sheet” is advertising and marketing collateral. In a speech — I grant a reduction is to be closely utilized — the candidate provides some approximation of their phrase. (That’s why “Learn my lips, no new taxes” backfied so badly for Bush the Elder, for instance.) “As a result of Harris received such a late begin campaigning, she doesn’t have the years of constant messaging native to most presidential candidates. And she or he is hypersensitive about being tagged as a radical, each to the voting public and to the donor base that has pushed up her fundraising. Attempting to each lock in belief and dispel mischaracterizations, to each pitch towards the undecided voter and preserve the hype from the bottom that accompanied her substitution for Joe Biden within the race, is an actual high-wire act. It results in cockeyed statements like quoting Franklin Roosevelt’s want for ‘daring, persistent experimentation’ (to get out of the Melancholy, in his case) with a promise for ‘sensible options’ and ‘pragmatic’ approaches, which can be virtuous however are lower than daring.” • Probably. My thesis that Kamala will say no matter she has to say as a result of she doesn’t know who she is yields an equally highly effective account — albeit an account with out what some would interpret as charity, and others as particular pleading — that covers her complete profession and, importantly, has fewer epicycles to “save the phenomena” (hat tip, William of Occam).
Kamala (D): “Kamala Harris and what (little) we will be taught from a softball interview” [Washington Examiner]. “So what may be drawn from 25 minutes of softballs and non- and semi-answers? Not a lot. However just a few scraps: First, with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris can point out issues like wanting a “path to citizenship” for unlawful border crossers with out concern of additional questions. (Harris has supported the “path” coverage for years and included it in her Democratic Nationwide Conference acceptance speech.) Second, once more with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris received’t even make an try and reply questions she doesn’t need, such because the distinction between inflation and worth gouging and her position in creating the Biden-era inflation. And third, once more with a pleasant, supportive interviewer, Harris won’t or can’t give a greater reply than her first lengthy soliloquy about aspirations and ambitions and desires and no matter. Sure, these are small advantages. The general public deserves to see Harris going through a real interviewer, one who would query her statements, her premises, her assumptions, who would put her on the spot. However that can in all probability not occur. The candidate, in spite of everything, decides who will get an interview and who doesn’t. And there’s no purpose to suppose Harris will undergo severe scrutiny anytime quickly.”
Kamala (D): “Is Kamala Harris’s Media Technique Working?” [The Nation]. “Ruhle requested Harris if it was actually true that she’d labored in McDonalds, which led to the 2 ladies singing the outdated Massive Mac jingle, which was hokey however cute. Harris spoke passionately in regards to the significance of that work—but additionally the unfairness of the truth that she was doing it as a university scholar, whereas her coworkers have been attempting to help households on a minimal wage.” • What editor turned “the minimal wage” into “a minimal wage”?
Kamala (D): “Harris to go to U.S.-Mexico border to tout toughness on immigration” [Axios]. • That ought to do it. Will there be a photograph op?
Kamala (D): “Vance, Walz face potential game-changing second with VP debate” [The Hill]. “Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) are set to take to the controversy stage subsequent week at a important second within the presidential race, with greater than a month to go earlier than Election Day and polls displaying a razor-tight race. Each males face strain to carry out effectively, with Vance seeking to make up misplaced floor after former President Trump’s rocky debate in opposition to Vice President Harris earlier this month and as he faces rising scrutiny over his controversial remarks. In the meantime, Walz seemingly can be pressed over his and Harris’s liberal monitor data at a time when her marketing campaign is tacking to the middle. Whereas most observers observe vice presidential debates haven’t moved the needle a lot prior to now, they are saying this yr might be completely different. Polls present a extremely aggressive race between Harris and Trump within the last stretch, and any huge misstep or knockout blow by one of many vice presidential contenders might change the sport. ‘All of the needle must be moved is 0.1 % in both route, and that might be the distinction in 4 or 5 states,’ stated Democratic strategist Steven Maviglio.” • Assuming the undecideds and irregulars have an identical properties throughout “4 or 5 states.” I’m undecided I’d assume that. (In the event you consider identification as a bundle of properties, we’ve got identification politics to claim that voters with properties a, b…n behave — or ought to behave — identically no matter jurisdiction, however I’m undecided that’s true, particularly when economics will not be sometimes one such property.)
* * *
International leaders hedging the bets? Or do they know one thing we don’t?
Trump (R): “Trump to fulfill Zelenskyy after Harris guarantees ‘unwavering’ Ukraine help” [Al Jazeera]. “Donald Trump has stated he’ll meet Volodymyr Zelenskyy after criticising the Ukrainian president on the marketing campaign path and expressing doubts about Ukraine’s capacity to beat Russia. Trump, the Republican candidate within the November 5 United States presidential election, stated he would meet Zelenskyy in New York on Friday.”
Trump (R): “Starmer meets Trump for the primary time” [BBC]. “The prime minister has had a two-hour dinner with former US President Donald Trump in New York.
It’s the first time Sir Keir Starmer and Trump have met. The pair have been joined by International Secretary David Lammy.”
Trump (R):
Former President Trump met with Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, the President of the UAE and Ruler of Abu Dhabi, earlier this night.
Arguably the shrewdest chief within the Center East, MBZ sought to determine a detailed relationship with Trump and his crew early on.
In December 2016,… pic.twitter.com/rPIfD6eVPw
— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) September 27, 2024
* * *
Trump (R): “The Republican Social gathering is much less white than ever. Thank Donald Trump” [Vox]. “In ballot after ballot, he’s hitting or exceeding the degrees of help he obtained in 2020 from Latino and Hispanic voters. He’s primed to make inroads amongst Asian American voters, whose Democratic loyalty has steadily been declining over the previous few election cycles. And the numbers he’s posting with Black voters recommend the most important racial realignment in an election because the signing of the Civil Rights Act in 1964…. Why? Placing apart environmental components and shifts within the American citizens which are occurring unbiased of the candidates, there are just a few theories to clarify how Trump has uniquely weakened political polarization alongside the strains of race and ethnicity.1) Trump has efficiently related himself with a message of financial nostalgia, heightening nonwhite People’ recollections of the pre-Covid economic system in distinction to the interval of inflation we’re now exiting. 2) Trump and his marketing campaign have additionally zeroed in particularly on outreach and messaging to nonwhite males as a part of their bigger concentrate on interesting to male voters. 3) Trump and his get together have taken benefit of a confluence of social components, together with messaging on immigration and cultural points, to shore up help from conservative voters of colour who’ve historically voted for Democrats or not voted in any respect.” • “Financial nostalgia” is good framing (trans. “Lay again and revel in it). Nevertheless, some voters would possibly want to regard the Biden period as a brief blip; it’s Make America Nice Once more, in spite of everything.
Trump (R): “Trump Victory Comes Into View” [Christian Whiton, Capitalist Notes]. “With Trump, voters principally understand how he’ll convey again the Three Fats Years of financial progress and peace we had earlier than the pandemic. He’ll reduce power costs, which is able to make all the things cheaper, and cease the over-spending that has pushed inflation. He’ll negotiate the top of wars somewhat than beginning new ones. He’ll get management of the border and deport the unhealthy hombres. And he’ll rebuild the navy to be what Rush Limbaugh used to establish as its main objective—’to kill folks and break issues’—somewhat than a sandbox for DEI experiments and four-star politicians who can’t win wars. Distinction that to Kamala and her zero-calorie phrase salad. How will she make life higher for anybody aside from the federal government bureaucrats and elite overlords…? Briefly, as he did in 2016, Donald Trump is connecting emotionally with voters and providing them sensible options. And, whereas Kamala is hiding from even her fanboys within the company media, Trump is speaking with voters in plain language and, regardless of the most effective efforts of massive media, huge tech, and Hollywood, he’s getting by means of.” • I agree that Trump is “connecting,” as a result of the race is tight whereas your complete political and media institution is pulling for his opponent (module outliers like Carlson); as are the organs of state safety. However each second Trump takes to hawk [family blogging] watches is a second taken away from the marketing campaign path. And the marketing campaign path will not be a spot go skipping alongside, hither and yon, dancing and singing la-di-da, and stopping to odor the flowers (or watches, because the case could also be). If there’s something “bizarre” in regards to the Trump marketing campaign — leaving apart the skilled deformations of the suitable — conduct like that is it. Have some respect for the bottom!
* * *
Trump (R): “Trump Judges Are Excessive-Performing ‘Mavericks,’ New Research Claims” [Bloomberg Law]. “Greater than 20 years in the past, New York College legislation professor Stephen Choi and College of Virginia legislation professor Mitu Gulati developed a strategy for evaluating judges that centered on three metrics: productiveness, affect, and independence. They dubbed the judges with the best total scores ‘superstars’ (with Judges Richard Posner and Frank Easterbrook of the Seventh Circuit as the highest two again in 2003). For a brand new paper, Choi and Gulati utilized their framework to the 77 federal appellate judges who have been 55 or youthful in 2020—43 Trump appointees and 34 non-Trump appointees, roughly a 55%-45% cut up. The professors selected this group based mostly on the reasoning that these jurists have the suitable mixture of youth and judicial expertise to be thought-about for the US Supreme Courtroom within the close to future. They referred to this judicial cohort as ‘auditioners,’ since a few of them look like ‘auditioning’ for a spot on the excessive court docket…. One potential prediction was that Trump judges would underperform. Primarily based on Trump’s public pronouncements about how ‘his’ judges would act and his personal conduct in different spheres, some observers anticipated him to pick judges based mostly on their capacity to ship conservative outcomes or their private loyalty to him—a ‘deviation from conventional norms of selecting ‘good’ judges,’ as defined within the research summary. However as a substitute, in line with Choi and Gulati, ‘Trump judges outperform different judges, with the very high rankings of judges predominantly crammed by Trump judges.’ This was, as Gulati informed me, ‘not what we anticipated.’”
* * *
* * *NC: “Harris and Trump marketing campaign in swing states with battling visions for the economic system” [PBS]. • Voter interviews (with tons and many cites to skilled opinion-havers).
Clinton Legacy
“Hillary Clinton displays on many years of service and the way Harris can beat Trump” [PBS]. “[INTERVIEWER:] So that is your fifth guide because the 2016 election. You opened by quoting in all probability one of many biggest songs ever written, “Each Sides Now” by Joni Mitchell, tears and fears and feeling proud.” • What a time to be alive.
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
* * *
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
* * *
Transmission: Covid
Fascinating proxy:
This yr’s spherical of free COVID-19 assessments is once more counting on much less correct (however far inexpensive) antigen assessments
A reminder that there are nonetheless over-the-counter residence “molecular” COVID take a look at units which are rather more delicate, however begin at $39.99 eachhttps://t.co/oQgfkFNjrd https://t.co/njID5eCh59 pic.twitter.com/TVS3mSwElI
— Alexander Tin (@Alexander_Tin) September 27, 2024
Testing and Monitoring: H5N1
“Free COVID assessments are again. However there are extra correct assessments on the market” [CBS]. • However after all. Commentary:
This yr’s spherical of free COVID-19 assessments is once more counting on much less correct (however far inexpensive) antigen assessments
A reminder that there are nonetheless over-the-counter residence “molecular” COVID take a look at units which are rather more delicate, however begin at $39.99 eachhttps://t.co/oQgfkFNjrd https://t.co/njID5eCh59 pic.twitter.com/TVS3mSwElI
— Alexander Tin (@Alexander_Tin) September 27, 2024
Elite Maleficence
Bonnie and Gladys, collectively ultimately:
😳😳😳
Explains a lot about our joint inertia. https://t.co/sdvYz27ztl
— David Joffe MB BS (Hons), PhD, FRACP 🇦🇺 (@DavidJoffe64) September 26, 2024
Social Norming
“Why Folks Don’t Hearken to Warnings” [The Sentinel Intelligence]. “We’re not right here to make gentle of pure disasters. We’re right here to know why, as we face an growing variety of devastating threats, a rising variety of folks don’t wish to take them critically….. A psychologist at Duke College named Jack Brehm found out this downside within the Sixties. He referred to as it reactance. He printed a handful of articles about it adopted by a guide titled A Principle of Psychological Reactance. His guide impressed 60 years of analysis on the subject. It even knowledgeable the favored psychological trick often known as reverse psychology. Brehm found one thing you’ve seen lots over the previous few years. While you attempt to affect somebody’s actions, they resist. When folks really feel a menace to their perceived independence, they get indignant. They attempt to restore their freedom. They may ignore the warning. They may make enjoyable of you. They may pitch a match. They may punch you within the face. It relies upon. Reactance signifies that those who don’t hearken to warnings understand the lack of their freedom as the best menace of all. They defend it in any respect prices. Everybody has their very own reactance scale. It lives on a spectrum. At one finish, you’ve got collectively minded folks. They have an inclination to concentrate on the higher good. They’re extra seemingly to surrender sure freedoms if it means avoiding dying and destruction. On the opposite finish, you’ve got rugged individualists who see virtually each warning or suggestion as a menace to their private freedom. Right here’s the bizarre half: An individualist will get angrier if a good friend or relative tries to affect their conduct in a method that threatens their sense of non-public freedom. They’re additionally extra seemingly to withstand recommendation or info coming to them by means of anybody promoted as an skilled or authority determine.” • Fascinating, however I don’t suppose social pyschology maps on to politics…
* * *
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Eventually, the wastewater knowledge appears to be like improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to College” bullet, at the very least on the nationwide degree. The wastewater drop is strengthened by the positivity numbers as effectively.
Wastewater
★ This week[1] CDC September 23
Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
★ Variants [3] CDC September 28
★Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21
Hospitalization
★ New York[5] New York State, knowledge September 25:
★ Nationwide [6] CDC September 7:
Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 23:
★ Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 21:
Vacationers Knowledge
★CDC September 9:
★CDC September 9:
Deaths
★CDC September 21:
★CDC September 21:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others will not be up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with sizzling spots annotated. A lot much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* very talked-about. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however value noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Massive drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Private Revenue: “United States Private Revenue” [Trading Economics]. “US private revenue elevated by 0.2% from the earlier month to $24.015 trillion in August of 2024, following a 0.3% rise within the earlier month and beneath market forecasts of a 0.4% rise.”
Inflation: “United States Core PCE Value Index Annual Change” [Trading Economics]. “The annual improve within the core PCE worth index, the Federal Reserve’s most well-liked gauge to measure underlying inflation, edged greater to 2.7% in August of 2024 from 2.6% within the earlier month.” • Way back baked in for the election, although.
* * *
Manufacturing: “Important security alert: Boeing 737 rudder malfunction linked to chilly situations, NTSB warns” [USA Today]. “Based on the NTSB, a bit of the rudder management system on 737 Subsequent-Era and 737 Max plane, the 2 most up-to-date generations of the producer’s best-selling airplane, can lose performance in chilly climate situations. A United Airways flight coming back from Nassau, Bahamas, to Newark on Feb. 6 had its rudder pedals caught within the impartial positions throughout the touchdown roll. The NTSB stated the captain was capable of management the airplane utilizing its nosewheel steering system. No accidents have been reported to passengers or crew throughout that incident. Even so, the company investigated and located points with the airplane’s rudder system…. The NTSB directed Boeing to find out and notify airways of applicable pilot responses if an analogous incident happens and to alert pilots ‘that the rudder management system can jam attributable to moisture that has gathered contained in the actuators and frozen.’ The company has additionally really helpful that the FAA ‘decide if actuators with incorrectly assembled bearings must be faraway from airplanes, and in that case, to direct U.S. operators to take action till replacements can be found.’ The company additionally stated Thursday it accepted NTSB’s suggestion. ‘As a celebration to the investigation, the company has been monitoring this case carefully,’ the FAA stated in an announcement. ‘Tomorrow, we’ll convene a corrective motion assessment board based mostly upon the NTSB’s interim suggestions and decide subsequent steps.’” • Poor outdated Boeing. Now the NTSB is after them too!
Manfucturing: “Boeing, Machinists again on the negotiating desk as strike enters third week” [Seattle Times]. “Friday’s negotiations will seemingly be punctuated by frustration over Boeing’s newest transfer. The corporate publicized the provide shortly after delivering it to the negotiating crew, somewhat than presenting it to the union by means of discussions on the bargaining desk. Union management stated Monday that made members really feel disrespected, and discovering out in regards to the particulars of the brand new provide by means of the media was like ‘a slap within the face.’ Boeing later stated in an announcement that ‘this strike is affecting our crew and our communities, and we consider our workers ought to have the chance to vote on our provide. … We’ve reached out to the union to provide them extra time and provide logistical help as soon as they determine to vote.’ The following day, the union’s negotiating committee informed members they have been heading again to the bargaining desk. Boeing is keen to finish the strike because it burns by means of money and work in its factories stays halted.” • Properly, they will’t be that keen, can they?
Manufacturing: “Boeing strike prices U.S. $1 billion of GDP in simply two weeks as negotiations resume” [Fortune]. “The strike that has hobbled Boeing for 2 weeks is being felt not simply on the firm, but additionally throughout your complete nation. As of Friday, the fallout from the strike accounts for a $1 billion discount in U.S. GDP, in line with estimates from Bjorn Markeson of financial evaluation and modeling firm IMPLAN. Based on Markeson’s calculations, this loss totals $700 million in Washington State alone, virtually half of which is accounted for by misplaced wages within the state…. The strike has price Boeing employees and shareholders a mixed $1.25 billion to date, in line with estimates launched by Anderson Financial Group, a unique method of measuring the financial impression than gross home product. Boeing’s debt additionally sits on the precipice of being downgraded to junk, which might considerably increase borrowing prices for a corporation that’s hemorrhaging money.”
* * *
Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 68 Greed (earlier shut: 71 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Sep 27 at 1:56:31 PM ET.
Gallery
Capricho (1):
Duendecitos, 1797-1798 pic.twitter.com/HXajruugQS
— Francisco Goya (@artistgoya) September 27, 2024
Capricho (2):
Michael Basquiat… pic.twitter.com/xeVb2KUe4w
— El Membership del Arte 🎨📷📚🖼🕍🎼 (@Arteymas_) September 27, 2024
Class Warfare
“Autoworkers, Boeing machinists, hashish drivers: Labor unions are mobilizing in new and outdated industries alike” [The Conversation]. “What do violinists, grocery retailer clerks, faculty dorm counselors, nurses, lecturers, lodge housekeepers, dockworkers, TV writers, autoworkers, Amazon warehouse employees and Boeing employees have in frequent? Previously yr or so, they’ve all gone on strike, tried to get co-workers to affix a union, or threatened to stroll off the job over an array of points that embody retirement plans, know-how changing employees and lagging wages as inflation elevated. The array of People who’re organizing unions extends to the tech, digital media and hashish industries. Even climbing fitness center workers have shaped a union. That is occurring as U.S. employees on the whole are discovering themselves in an more and more precarious place. As a labor historian, I consider mobilization is the results of financial disruption brought on by the relocation of jobs, the impression of recent applied sciences on work and the erosion of revenue stability. It’s grow to be not possible that immediately’s employees can have the identical employer for many years, as my father and lots of women and men of his era did.” • Woo hoo!
“Can Trump flip the unions?” [Unherd]. “Republicans should acknowledge the inherent tensions that exist between their burgeoning working-class help and that phase of their base, who proceed to carry outsize affect, specifically the rich native elites within the small-business class, often known as the ‘gentry’, who dominate the get together at state and native ranges. In contrast to the Democratic-leaning skilled and company sector, the working class and small-business class usually converge of their shared cultural conservatism and patriotic ethos, but frequent symbolic proclivities will not be sufficient to wield a coalition collectively when there are very actual variations of their respective financial goals. The gentry desire low wages and ‘versatile’ labour markets in order to higher entice funding; however for fairly comprehensible causes, unions need the alternative: greater wages, advantages, and ranges of safety for employees…. The Republican Social gathering should, subsequently, rediscover an older mode of political engagement from earlier than the current period of ideological polarisation, one which Nixon and the New Sellers alike would have recognised: brokerage politics.” • Which Trump would love: dealmaking. (I filed this story right here as a result of I just like the notion of “American gentry“, however “small enterprise” to me tends to connote a espresso store with just a few workers, and never, because the Census and the SBA would have it, a agency with as much as $40 million in revenues and 500 workers. That will be the mill in a mill city, and you may guess that’s not the identical as a espresso store.
“7 questions — and 0 conspiracy theories — in regards to the allegations in opposition to Sean ‘Diddy; Combs” [Vox]. A superb explainer. “Combs was extremely highly effective within the music trade and in American tradition extra usually. He was one of many first folks to mix the worlds of hip-hop, enterprise, and luxurious.” However: “Thus far, just a few bold-faced names who have been on the visitor lists at Combs’s celeb-packed ‘white events’ have come ahead to say they have been on no account related to any of the crimes Combs is accused of. However it’s finest if all of us give the conspiracy theories a relaxation and let the case be dealt with in court docket. Wild hypothesis is simply liable to exacerbate the victims’ ache.”
Information of the Wired
I’m not but feeling wired.
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are positive! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From L:
L writes: “I stroll previous this home day by day and for some purpose the yard enchants me. Nasturtiums and oxalis, with geraniums and a century plant within the again. A lonely peace lily peeks up and Lantana fills in on the suitable. Our winter has been fairly chilly and really humid. Chilly damp day after day is somewhat depressing to be sincere. I used to be stunned to search out out that right here they’ve completely different names for acquainted crops!! I’m continually stunned at how anglo-centric my assumptions are!!”
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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t categorical the views of the Bare Capitalism website. In the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:
Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In the event you hate PayPal, you possibly can e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on easy methods to ship a test. Thanks!
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