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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Fowl Music of the Day
Sedge Warbler, Uitkerkse polder, Vlaamse Gewest, Belgium. “Elevation (m): 4. Habitat: reed in meadows . Confidence in ID: 100%. ID decided by: seen.”
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In Case You May Miss…
(1) Electoral faculty strikes towards Trump (barely).
(2) Hillary Clinton, nonetheless servicing AIPAC.
(3) CDC publishes tweet with the wrong way up masks.
(4) Mushrooms and citizen science.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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2024
Lower than a half a 12 months to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, Might 24:
No discernible impact from Trump’s conviction but (although Democrats have solely simply begun to take advantage of it). Swing States (extra right here) nonetheless Brownian-motioning round. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, due to this fact dangerous, and many of the outcomes are inside the margin of error. If might be attention-grabbing to see whether or not the decision in Decide Merchan’s courtroom impacts the polling, and in that case, how.
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“Electoral Faculty Ranking Modifications: Half-Dozen Strikes Towards Republicans in What Stays a Toss-up Race” [Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. “We’re making six Electoral Faculty ranking adjustments this week, all in favor of Republicans. Nevertheless, we don’t actually see a transparent favourite in a presidential race with many confounding components. We contemplate Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. Whereas one can hypothetically give you paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats with out them, we don’t discover these paths to be compelling.” And: “[W]e additionally acknowledge the clear big-picture traits. Trump has been polling higher than he sometimes polled in each 2016 and 2020, and that has been the case for a lot of months. Biden’s approval ranking is in a harmful zone—the excessive 30s—and he has been in that weak place constantly since November, in line with the FiveThirtyEight common. Biden just isn’t going to be at net-positive approval by Election Day—luckily for him, he doesn’t should be, however one would in all probability anticipate to see some degree of enchancment if he’s going to win reelection. The hazard for Biden is that voters could be accomplished with him: There’s some nostalgia in polls for the pre-2020, pre-Covid, and pre-inflation interval that coincided with Trump’s presidency. That doesn’t essentially imply the general public is clamoring for Trump, who stays unpopular; it’s simply that they might choose him to Biden, or could be pondering extra about what they don’t like about Biden (the incumbent) than Trump (the challenger). One factor that Biden has going for him is that Trump doesn’t appear to have trimmed the sails on his personal rhetoric in any respect—Trump continues to laud the Jan. 6, 2021 rioters who tried to disrupt the 2020 electoral vote depend as persecuted patriots, for example, a place we simply can’t think about helps him with the center of the voters making an attempt to resolve between two flawed main social gathering candidates.” • Here’s a desk of the adjustments:
And here’s a map of the electoral faculty:
“Why 270 is essentially the most harmful quantity” [Nate Silver, Silver Bulletin]. I prefer it when Silver makes use of the numbers as a part of a story, like grizzled veterans Charles Prepare dinner or Larry Sabato, as an alternative of pretending he’s a knowledge scientists. This, on Biden’s “slender path” to victory (not in contrast to Trump’s path in 2016) is excellent. He begins with a (for Democrats) nightmare situation: “It’s 7 p.m. on Monday, November 11. Six lengthy nights have handed since Election Day. The final ballots have lastly been totally counted in Pennsylvania.1 And Joe Biden has simply been declared the winner of the Keystone State by 3,000 votes out of practically 7 million solid — and due to this fact the winner of the Electoral Faculty….. Pennsylvania and the opposite two unique Blue Wall states — Michigan and Wisconsin — simply barely held for Biden, producing this electoral map: a win for Biden by the slimmest attainable margin, 270-268…. It’ll take just one faithless elector to disclaim Biden his 270-vote majority, sending the nation right into a constitutional disaster.” • After all, Trump didn’t get his one member of a hung jury, both. (Once more, you’ll be able to wager the “election integrity” goons are gaming this out, simply as in 2020.)
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Trump (R) (Smith/Cannon): “Looking for the Reality In regards to the Raid at Mar-a-Lago” [RealClearPolitics]. “In one other oddity, the FBI disclosed {that a} prosecutor for the U.S. legal professional’s workplace in southern Florida was current in the course of the search; prosecutors usually don’t take part in raids, as they as an alternative deal with charging selections after proof is collected because of a search. Additional, the prosecutor would lose immunity if the search was declared illegal. That seems to be a chance. The warrant allowed brokers to look Trump’s workplace in addition to ‘all storage rooms, and all different rooms or areas inside the premises used or out there for use by FPOTUS and his employees and during which containers or paperwork may very well be saved.’ Trump’s legal professionals argue that FBI brokers exceeded the scope of the warrant by looking the personal rooms of Melania and Barron Trump. However Trump’s legal professionals argue that FBI brokers exceeded the scope of the warrant by looking the personal suite of former first girl Melania Trump and the couple’s son, Barron, who was 16 on the time. An FBI photograph log demonstrates brokers entered and took images of things inside each bedrooms.” • Sounds to me just like the FBI has the suitable of it, however the raid additionally feels like a multitude.
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Trump (R): “Trump’s Challenge 2025 plot would take ‘wrecking ball’ to US establishments, key Democrat warns” [Guardian]. • You say “take [a] ‘wrecking ball’ to US establishments” like that’s a foul factor. (After all, I’m being flippant. And I do must take a critical have a look at Challenge 2025. It’s too huge to take an exhaustive view, however it could be helpful to see what Heritage has to say in regards to the spooks.
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BIden (D): “The White Home isn’t ruling out a possible commutation for Hunter Biden after his conviction” [Associated Press]. ” The White Home just isn’t ruling out a possible commutation for Hunter Biden, the president’s son who was convicted on three federal gun crimes and is ready to be sentenced by a choose within the coming months. ‘As everyone knows, the sentencing hasn’t even been scheduled but,’ White Home press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre instructed reporters Wednesday on Air Pressure One as President Joe Biden traveled to the Group of Seven summit in Italy. She mentioned she has not spoken to the president in regards to the challenge because the verdict was delivered Tuesday. Biden definitively dominated out pardoning his son throughout an ABC Information interview final week. ‘He was very clear, very upfront, clearly very definitive,’ Jean-Pierre mentioned of the president’s remarks a few potential pardon. However on a commutation, ‘I simply don’t have something past that.’” • Oh.
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“Why Senate Democrats Are Outperforming Biden in Key States” [New York Times]. “‘I’ll present up in deep-red counties, they usually’ll be like, ‘I can’t bear in mind the final time we’ve seen a sitting U.S. senator right here, particularly not a Democrat,” mentioned Ms. Baldwin, an hour into her unassuming work of handing out plastic silverware at an annual dairy breakfast, and 5 months earlier than Wisconsin voters will resolve whether or not to provide her a 3rd time period. ‘I believe that begins to interrupt via.’ Wisconsin is considered one of seven states that may decide the presidency this November, however it would additionally assist decide which social gathering controls the Senate. President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump are working neck-and-neck within the state, which Mr. Trump narrowly gained in 2016 and Mr. Biden took again in 2020. Ms. Baldwin, against this, is working properly forward of the president and her presumed Republican opponent, the rich banker Eric Hovde. Polls launched early final month by The New York Instances, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena Faculty discovered Ms. Baldwin holding a lead of 49 % to 40 % over Mr. Hovde. In late Might, the nonpartisan Prepare dinner Political Report put the unfold even wider, 12 proportion factors. That down-ballot Democratic energy just isn’t remoted to Wisconsin. Senate Democratic candidates additionally maintain leads in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. A Marist Ballot launched Tuesday mentioned Mr. Trump led Mr. Biden in Ohio by seven proportion factors, however Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads his challenger, Bernie Moreno, by 5 proportion factors, a 12-point swing.”
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“Ten guidelines for understanding the 2024 elections” [Walter Shapiro, Roll Call]. “We have now reached that time within the 2024 election cycle when it’s too late to be early and too early to be late. With summer time approaching and the primary debate ever between an incumbent president and a convicted felon looming, this looks as if the best second to suggest 10 guidelines for following the campaigns.” Listed below are two: “3) Be cautious about electoral fashions, since it’s unattainable to duplicate the idiosyncratic components which might be shaping the race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.” And: “8) Bear in mind there has by no means been a June presidential debate. Be skeptical about any glib after-action assessments of who gained and what it in the end means. In Denver in early October 2012, Obama had in all probability the worst debate of any candidate in historical past, together with Richard Nixon in 1960. A month later, Obama simply gained reelection.” • Price a learn. Horse races are enjoyable, however not essentially, alongside the way in which, informative.
Democrats en Déshabillé
“Hillary Clinton stuns Democrats by endorsing George Latimer for Jamaal Bowman’s congressional seat” [Daily Mail]. • Democrats are simple to stun. Latimer:
George Latimer is an AIPAC pet. #RejectAIPAC pic.twitter.com/UZuaCQbVfn
— AIPAC Tracker (@TrackAIPAC) June 12, 2024
Clinton:
In line with @TrackAIPAC, Hillary Clinton has obtained greater than $4 million from pro-Israel curiosity teams. https://t.co/g6FcsqVfwb pic.twitter.com/9zMdW8z4bh
— Leah McElrath (@leahmcelrath) Might 9, 2024
Bowman:
Bowman receives pro-Israel cash, however since he would not settle for company cash, he is good in line with @trackaipac. pic.twitter.com/WR8wbk55DX
— SZH (@StopZionistHate) Might 16, 2024
Usually, I’m not fairly this mechanistic, however this appears so much like Ferguson’s “industrial mannequin.” Besides artisanal.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Textualism, aside from sovereign residents:
One phrase typically utilized by sovereigns right now is “cestui que belief;” sovereigns consider everyone has one and you’ll declare it and get magical powers (see instance under from a ruling on a chapter submitting). So let’s seize a time machine and go looking. pic.twitter.com/LQ2IMrKytT
— Mark Pitcavage (@egavactip) June 12, 2024
Fascinating how these talismanic phrases root themselves in folks’s minds (and likely mutate, like Nigerian 419 letters do). Jogs my memory of mainstream macro.
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
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Transmission: H5N1
“Fowl flu poses unanswered questions in leap to dairy cows” [Cedar Rapid Gazette (RK)]. “The U.S. Division of Agriculture has despatched a “strike staff” to Iowa to help it with testing after the extremely contagious chicken flu normally related to poultry flocks now has been found in three dairy cow herds within the state…. The Iowa Division of Agriculture and Land Stewardship will start testing dairy farms inside 20 kilometers — or over 12 miles [not, apparently, six feet] — of any poultry farm the place the virus is detected, mentioned division spokesperson Don McDowell…. Federal and state officers are finding out the contaminated herds throughout the nation to find out how the cows could have contracted the virus. In a press release, Mc-Dowell mentioned wild birds are frequent carriers of the virus. ‘We have to study extra about how the virus is launched to new flocks/herds and the way it’s spreading,’ he mentioned. ‘We’re at all times searching for epidemiological clues and ties and that’s why we’re making our requests of USDA to help with analysis.’” Keep in mind that one of many issues public well being instructed us was that Covid was a shock to them, in contrast to avian flu, for which they’d been making ready for years. And now right here it’s, and we don’t know a factor. Extra: “The illness additionally seems to be spreading between cows, fairly than simply from birds to cows, making interstate transportation a possible perpetrator for the unfold, mentioned Iowa State College Dairy Extension Veterinarian Phillip Jardon.” Right here we’re taking discover of cattle transmission, what number of months in? [pounds head on desk]. And eventually: “The Iowa Division of Agriculture mentioned final week it’s contemplating extra necessities for livestock exhibitions on the Iowa State Honest, which begins Aug. 8.” • Effectively, there’s your worse case situation proper there: State festivals as superspreading occasions, aside from H5N1. And see the hyperlink instantly under
Airborne Transmission: H5N1
“Modelling the Wind-Borne Unfold of Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus between Farms” [PLOS One]. From 2012, nonetheless [family-blogging] germane. From the Summary: “A quantitative understanding of the unfold of contaminated farm mud between places is a prerequisite for acquiring much-needed perception into one of many attainable mechanisms of illness unfold between farms. Right here, we develop a mannequin to calculate the amount of contaminated farm-dust particles deposited at numerous places downwind of a supply farm and apply the mannequin to evaluate the attainable contribution of the wind-borne path to the transmission of Extremely Pathogenic Avian Influenza virus (HPAI) in the course of the 2003 epidemic within the Netherlands. The mannequin is obtained from a Gaussian Plume Mannequin by incorporating the mud deposition course of, pathogen decay, and a mannequin for the an infection course of on uncovered farms. Utilizing poultry- and avian influenza-specific parameter values we calculate the distance-dependent likelihood of between-farm transmission by this route. A comparability between the transmission danger sample predicted by the mannequin and the sample noticed in the course of the 2003 epidemic reveals that the wind-borne route alone is inadequate to elucidate the observations though it might contribute considerably to the unfold over brief distance ranges, for instance, explaining 24% of the transmission over distances as much as 25 km.” • Different components being: Motion of cattle, motion of staff, presumably animal transmission. I can’t show this, however the 12 mile testing radius above kinda correlates to the 25 km = 15.5 miles on this research. Fairly presumably someone in Iowa is studying the literature, in contrast to CDC and FDA.
Superstar Watch
“The COVID-19 an infection you caught at a Taylor Swift live performance just isn’t a present from ‘Mom’” [Business Insider]. • Say no to demise cults!
Elite Maleficence
Assume materials earlier than pondering psychological:
I’ve a good friend of a good friend on the CDC. They do not have good issues to say. It is alongside the strains of “folks cannot converse up or they’re going to lose their pensions.” I want I used to be kidding. I’m not. They don’t seem to be doing the suitable factor as a result of it would price them their job.
— Bizarre Soup. Creds: PMHCNS-BC, RN (@Cosmicpixle) June 12, 2024
(“[T]he id of revenues and sources of income” –Capital, Quantity III, Chapter 52, “courses.”) CDC looks as if a horrid place to work. So no marvel Mandy had CDC’s propaganda division emit this:
Morning yoga on the garden at CDC’s Atlanta campus! 🧘💪 pic.twitter.com/LvwWQMB2Ze
— Mandy Okay. Cohen, MD, MPH (@CDCDirector) June 5, 2024
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What number of issues can you discover which might be unsuitable with this image:
#LongCOVID is a critical public well being concern that impacts tens of millions of individuals throughout the U.S. @NASEM_Health launched a brand new report serving to to additional outline Lengthy COVID as a persistent situation.
Learn extra about Lengthy COVID and the brand new report: https://t.co/G8x5fVsa8D pic.twitter.com/qhRwzrPYtc
— CDC (@CDCgov) June 12, 2024
Right here’s an inventory:
NOTES
Sorry for the repetitions of the unique tweet (however then once more, maybe it might’t be retweeted sufficient).
[1]
A bit of extra checking on the photograph. It is a inventory photograph from a photograph sequence. However, there’s loads with masks on. The CDC picture has a Photoshopped masks. pic.twitter.com/LC17xAgCYc
— Peter Ginsburg (@pwginsburg) June 13, 2024
[2]
[3]
And:
[4]
To not point out the racial angle…
[5]
Lots of people are speaking in regards to the lack of masks.
However I am seeing boredom, tiredness, disdain, quickly to be adopted by a mix of patronising, gaslighting, and dismissing. https://t.co/A2enaLVVKe pic.twitter.com/nF5pVXS6m8
— tern (@1goodtern) June 13, 2024
This picture will need to have gone via eighteen totally different layers of administration earlier than being posted on The Twitter. How on earth did all of them log off on a picture with an the wrong way up masks. Ignorance? Malevolence? A perverse sense of enjoyable? Mind injury? And a last meme:
One can at all times hope pic.twitter.com/Qq0QhzJao8
— D. ZeroCovidNow (@dstuf) June 13, 2024
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Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I lastly gave up the unequal wrestle and went with CDC’s wastewater maps; they may no less than give us some at-a-glance sense of how instances are altering in time and house.
TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right now; all others will not be up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated.
[2] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, not annotated. Subsequent week I’ll transfer the map at [1] to [2], and replace [1].
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, provided that final week KP.2 was throughout every little thing like kudzu, and now it’s KP.3. If the “Nowcast” can’t even forecast two weeks out, why are we doing it in any respect?
[4] (ER) That is the perfect I can do for now. Not less than information for the whole pandemic is introduced.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) A slight lower adopted by a return to a slight enhance. (The NY city space has type; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an vital entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, after which across the nation via air journey.)
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). That is the perfect I can do for now. Be aware the belief that Covid is seasonal is constructed into the presentation. Not less than information for the whole pandemic is introduced.
[7] (Walgreens) 4.3%; huge leap. (As a result of there may be information in “present view” tab, I believe white states right here have skilled “no change,” versus don’t have any information.)
[8] (Cleveland) Going up.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no strategy to regulate the time rasnge. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or evaluate one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Similar deal. These sh*theads:
[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.
[12] Deaths low, ED up.
Stats Watch
Employment Scenario: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of folks claiming unemployment advantages within the US jumped by 13,000 to 242,000 on the week ending June eighth, properly above market expectations of 225,000, to report the very best studying since August 2023. Within the meantime, excellent claims rose greater than anticipated to 1,820,000 within the earlier week, the very best in practically 5 months. The outcomes had been additional proof of a softening US labor market, strengthening the case for the Federal Reserve to ship a number of fee cuts this 12 months ought to inflation progress in converging to its goal.” • Besides they’re not going to. Or so they are saying.
Inflation: “United States Producer Value Inflation MoM” [Trading Economics]. “Manufacturing unit gate costs within the US went down 0.2% mother in Might 2024, in contrast with market expectations of a 0.1% enhance and after a 0.5% rise in April.”
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Tech:
Adore it. pic.twitter.com/kT509QDLau
— Jon Barron (@jon_barron) June 12, 2024
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At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 43 Worry (earlier shut: 46 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 44 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jun 13 at 1:35:27 PM ET.
The Gallery
Appears acceptable, by some means:
The triumphant march, 1947 https://t.co/k2tw3cmAD8 pic.twitter.com/LJ09n9jkob
— René Magritte (@artistmagritte) June 10, 2024
Information of the Wired
“The Mushroom Hunters Can’t Cease Discovering Mysterious Fungi” [New York Times]. “As soon as collectors obtain a match for his or her sequence, they’ll enter the knowledge on iNaturalist, an internet site the place hobbyists can share observations of the pure world. In the meantime, organizations just like the Ohio Mushroom DNA Lab and Mycota Lab, based by Stephen Russell, a biochemist on the College of Michigan, enter the sequences into scientific databases accessible to the analysis group. This manner, the knowledge generated by dispersed networks of foragers might be funneled on to scientists and conservation organizations.” • Citizen science! Too dangerous we will’t do wastewater testing that method….
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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are nice! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From timotheus:
Timontheus writes: “Isham Park @ Seaman Avenue, northern Manhattan.”
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