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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, I had a liquid lunch and, fairly frankly, I’m plotzed. I’ll make it as much as you tomorrow, I swear! –lambert
Chook Track of the Day
Spectacled Finch, Seri Paya, North-West Frontier, Pakistan.
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Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
The Blob speaks:
Israel has survived & even thrived since 1948 within the face of exterior threats. Hamas is however the newest. To argue it should be eliminated-requiring regime change in Gaza-lacks precedent. Degrading Hamas & reconstituting protection must be the precedence. https://t.co/R6Va7vqIiM— Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass) October 29, 2023
I just like the crimson background; artwork director editorializing just a little bit, there.
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
Solely 5 extra days till a full 12 months to election day!
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“Liberals, Begin Giving Biden Some Rattling Credit score” [Michael Tomasky (of course), The New Republic (of course)]. “Biden’s well timed present of help was nearly the one one I can consider the place a sitting president so brazenly sided with labor in such a dispute.” • Sure, the railroad staff ought to ensure that their contract negotiations occur in an election 12 months, so Democrats don’t have any incentive to betray them. Is Tomasky just a little baby?
“Step apart Hillary, Joe Biden could turn into king of e mail scandals as new stash alarms investigators” [Just the News]. “Beneath authorized strain, the Nationwide Archives has confirmed to a court docket that it has situated 82,000 pages of emails that Biden despatched or obtained throughout his vice presidential tenure on three non-public pseudonym accounts. … [I]n Might 2016, Biden’s vice presidential employees despatched an e mail to Joe Biden’s non-public account and copied Hunter Biden alerting the long run first son that his father was having a telephone briefing with Petro Poroshenko, the president of Ukraine, the place Hunter Biden had substantial enterprise with the vitality agency Burisma Holdings. ‘Boss–8:45am prep for 9am telephone name with Pres Poroshenko. Then we’re off to Rhode Island for infrastructure occasion after which Wilmington for UDel graduation,’ the staffer wrote the then-vice president. ‘Nate can have your draft remarks delivered later tonight or together with your press clips within the morning.’” • Oh. That’s good.
Republican Funhouse
“Mike Johnson is a pro-gun Christian nationalist. Sure, be afraid” [WaPo]. “Certainly, Johnson obtained proper to work mixing church and state in his first speech after he gained the speakership. ‘I consider that scripture, the Bible may be very clear: that God is the one which raises up these in authority,’ he mentioned from the pulpit — er, the Home rostrum. ‘And I consider that God has ordained and allowed every one in every of us to be introduced right here for this particular second.’” • Superior. Someone ought to ask Johnson why God raised up FDR or, for that matter, Lenin. The remainder of this text is a totally unserious listicle of liberal Democrat reactance.
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are truly studying the back-dated publish! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are lots of updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Social gathering (“the Democrat Social gathering is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated publish, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Social gathering is, in truth, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Social gathering is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). It follows that the Democrat Social gathering is as “unreformable” because the PMC is unreformable; if the Democrat Social gathering didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. If the Democrat Social gathering fails to manipulate, that’s as a result of the PMC lacks the potential to manipulate. (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” in fact.) Second, all of the working elements of the Social gathering reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Social gathering (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Be aware, in fact, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is proscribed by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
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Realignment and Legitimacy
No:
The time for Sanders to have pivoted to labor was instantly after the Evening of the Lengthy Knives, when the labor pot was not solely boiling, however labor confronted the onset of Covid, as I urged contemporaneously (however can’t discover as a result of [family blogging] Google is 100% crapified. Now it’s approach too late. Don’t give him a dime.
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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Maskstravaganza
“Masks Throughout Pandemics Brought on by Respiratory Pathogens—Proof and Implications for Motion” [JAMA]. From the Summary: “Strong accessible information help the usage of face masks in neighborhood settings to cut back transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and may inform future responses to epidemics and pandemics attributable to respiratory viruses.” • IOW, HICPAC’s “proof evaluation” on masking is filled with sh*t, as I argued on the time. What a shock!
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” could be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. Plenty of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we would add mind injury, together with persona adjustments therefrom.
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Elite Maleficence
I linked to this yesterday, nevertheless it’s vital that Jimenez picked it up:
An vital improvement regarding doable gross misconduct by the @CDCgov #HICPAC committee, that’s making an attempt to WEAKEN (actually! Cannot make these things up) the airborne illness transmission safety in well being care https://t.co/nKyRpPd1C0— Prof. Jose-Luis Jimenez (@jljcolorado) November 1, 2023
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Case Information
NOT UPDATED From BioBot wastewater information, October 30:
Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card. And Thanksgiving is developing.
Regional information:
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:
Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…
From CDC, October 14:
Lambert right here: I positive hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of ailing intent).
CDC: “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of optimistic check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 28:
Lambert right here: Flattening. Solely per week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I might doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for bothMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Discover additionally that this chart exhibits, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid isn’t seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.
Hospitalization
Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 31:
Flattened, (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).
NOT UPDATED Right here’s a special CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, at the very least. October 21:
Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 30:
1.3%. Improve. (It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and obtained examined anyhow.)
NOT UPDATED From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:
Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is nice*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.
NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 9:
Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed here are the variants for vacationers:
Sudden massive BA.2.86 look.
Deaths
NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that exhibits a complete of the three causes (prime proper). Readers?
Complete: 1,180,669 – 1,180,405 = 264 (264 * 365 = 96,360 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of demise and illness).
Extra Deaths
The Economist, October 27:
Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States ADP Employment Change” [Trading Economics]. “Non-public companies in the US added 113,000 staff to their payrolls in October 2023, barely beneath market expectations of a 150,000 improve and following a earlier achieve of 89,000. Nevertheless, job positive aspects continued to exceed the 70,000-100,000 vary required every month to accommodate the rising working-age inhabitants, suggesting that the labor market is certainly displaying indicators of gradual leisure however stays sturdy, even within the face of the Federal Reserve’s tightening measures.” Powell’s rubber thumbscrews….
Employment State of affairs: “United States Job Openings” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of job openings elevated by 56,000 from the earlier month to 9.55 million in September 2023, reaching the very best stage in 4 months and exceeding the market consensus of 9.25 million.”
Manufacturing: “United States ISM Buying Managers Index (PMI)” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 46.7 in October of 2023 from the 10-month excessive of 49 within the earlier month, nicely beneath expectations of 49, pointing to the eleventh consecutive contraction within the US manufacturing sector. The information underscored the affect of upper borrowing prices from the Federal Reserve within the sector, additional difficult the resilience of US items producers from different stories.”
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In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 32 Concern (earlier shut: 30 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 27 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 1 at 1:42:06 PM ET.
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Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are positive! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From PR:
PR writes: “Creepy AI-generated vegetable zombie pic, in case Lambert desires a plant pic for halloween. Grainnnzzz!” Comfortable post-Halloween!
And parallel to the “humorous greens” in Terry Pratchett’s The Fact, this from Desert Canine:
Desert Canine feedback: “Getting married…. Household weblog.”
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