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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Extraordinarily affected person readers, I’m afraid brunch acquired totally uncontrolled. So that is fairly skeletal, though I’ll add in as a lot as I can, as quick as I can! Within the meantime, discuss amongst yourselves! –lambert
Hen Music of the Day
Blue Mockingbird, alongside the canal, Oaxaca, MX (17,2, -96,751), Etla, Oaxaca, Mexico.
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In Case You May Miss…
Trump and the Jack Smith transient.
Boeing and Longshoremen strikes.
UCLA instruments up.
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Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
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Trump Assassination Makes an attempt (Plural)
“Take him out”?!?
NEW: Crowd begins clapping after ‘The View’ co-host Sunny Hostin seems to recommend that Melania Trump needs to ok*ll Donald Trump.
Hostin says Melania needs to “take [Trump] out” as a result of she “hates” him.
Hostin: “I believe she hates him. So we will all agree on that. That is a… pic.twitter.com/99p2xokU8P
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 3, 2024
See Stoller in 2017, “On Mocking Dying Working Class White Individuals.” Liberal Democrats have been wishing demise on their political enemies for a while. Now they yuk it up on daytime tv.
2024
Lower than forty days to go!
Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:
This week’s crop of flag-of-convenience Democrat celebrities and generals didn’t flip the tide both. Regardless of the micturition and lamentation (very a lot together with my very own) in regards to the Trump marketing campaign dogging it when the election is theirs to win (see Gallup, “2024 Election Atmosphere Favorable to GOP” on the problems) do observe the regular deterioration in Kamala’s place within the (aggregated) high battlegrounds. (In fact, we on the surface would possibly as effectively be inspecting the entrails of birds once we attempt to predict what’s going to occur to a subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars particularly would possibly as effectively be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher information, and have the scenario as beneath management as it may be MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!.
“Battleground States Wrap-Up: Race Stays Successfully Tied” [RealClearPolling]. “The newest spherical of swing state polling signifies that neither Trump nor Harris has made important positive factors within the swing states. Within the RealClearPolitics Common of the High Battleground States, the race is once more a dead-even tie, which means any small modifications within the race over the subsequent month might determine who wins the presidency. If these RCP Averages maintain till Election Day, the race will likely be extremely shut. Because the RCP No Toss-Up Map reveals, if the election have been determined by the present averages, Trump would win with 281-257 electoral votes. Nonetheless, the result hinges on Pennsylvania, the place Trump leads by simply 0.1 factors, leaving the election a toss-up with a little bit over a month to go till Election Day.” • Then once more–
If I flip all of the leans Purple or Blue at 270toWin, however give Harris North Carolina (based mostly on Helene miserable Republican turnout in Western North Carolina (“Occasions, pricey boy. Occasions”)), Harris wins, making — to my dismay — Pennsylvania irrelevant:
(Then once more, if Michigan goes crimson, and Trump wins Pennsylvania, Trump wins.)
“Buyers flip to volatility trades to revenue from tight US election” [Financial Times]. “[T]he tight race means buying and selling volatility is seen as a safer wager than attempting to guess which shares or sectors will do effectively from a victory for former president Donald Trump or vice-president Kamala Harris. ‘Our base case continues to be that that is mainly a toss-up, and most shoppers have coalesced across the similar view,’ stated Stuart Kaiser, head of US fairness buying and selling technique at Citi. ‘In case you discuss to a consumer who thinks it’s 60-40 in favour of Trump, you would speak about proudly owning financial institution shares. In case you suppose Kamala is extra more likely to win, buying and selling a basket is smart,’ he added. ‘However for those who suppose it’s 50-50, will probably be very arduous to commerce directionally, it’s extra of a vol commerce.’ Buying and selling volatility usually requires traders to make use of extra sophisticated derivatives trades, resulting in a variety of complicated methods with names reminiscent of ‘straddles’ and ‘collars’ that contain shopping for and promoting a number of derivatives tied to particular person shares or an index such because the S&P 500.”
“October surprises are piling up, however a toss-up race appears impervious to shocks” [CNN]. “The White Home is grappling with three challenges that would threaten the vp’s hopes and provide a gap to the Republican nominee’s narrative of Biden-era negligence. A month earlier than Election Day, the US faces the grave risk of being dragged right into a Center East conflagration; a port employees’ strike might hurt inflation-weary customers; and political stress is rising within the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Trump, in the meantime, was hit on Wednesday by the unsealing of a 165-page doc through which particular counsel Jack Smith offers the fullest image of his case within the federal 2020 election interference case. The ex-president has pleaded not responsible, however the submitting re-injected his try to steal the final election into the frantic endgame of a marketing campaign partially formed by Democrats’ claims he poses an existential risk to American democracy. Every scenario highlights potential vulnerabilities for each candidates as voters make up their minds. The trio of checks going through Harris comes with potential financial, political and humanitarian penalties if the administration errs. And the brand new scrutiny of Trump’s conduct after the 2020 election might trigger some voters to once more query his health for the Oval Workplace.”
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Kamala (D): “Opinion: Vance is correct. Harris and Walz are a risk to People’ free speech” [Jonathan Turley, USA Today]. On “hearth in a croweded theatre: “[Walz] cited a case through which socialists Charles Schenck and Elizabeth Baer have been arrested and convicted of violating the Espionage Act of 1917. Their ‘crime’ was to cross out flyers in opposition to the army draft throughout World Struggle I. Schenck and Baer referred to as on their fellow residents to not ‘undergo intimidation’ and to ‘assert your rights.’ They argued, ‘If you don’t assert and assist your rights, you might be serving to to disclaim or disparage rights which it’s the solemn obligation of all residents and residents of the USA to retain.’ Additionally they described the army draft as ‘involuntary servitude.’ Holmes used his ‘hearth in a theater’; line to justify the abusive conviction and incarceration. On the Home listening to, once I was attempting to elucidate that the justice later walked away from the road and Schenck was successfully overturned in 1969 in Brandenburg v. Ohio, [Rep. Dan Goldman, D-N.Y.] reduce me off and stated, ‘We don’t want a legislation class right here.’ Within the vice presidential debate, Walz confirmed that he and different Democratic leaders most definitely do want a category in First Modification legislation.”
Kamala (D): “VP Kamala Harris broadcasts 100% reimbursement of native Helene response prices throughout remarks in Augusta” [WABE]. “Vice President Kamala Harris introduced Wednesday that President Joe Biden has permitted Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp’s request for 100% reimbursement of native prices of responding to the aftermath of Hurricane Helene throughout remarks in Augusta, Georgia. Harris stated the federal reimbursement will cowl prices for providers like meals, water and shelter offered by native governments, particles removing and emergency providers.” • In the meantime–
Kamala (D):
NEW: Kamala Harris kindly provides $750 to People who’ve misplaced their properties on account of flooding from Hurricane Helene.
The event comes because the Biden administration is now bragging about offering 67 Starlink satellites to impacted communities.
For reference, the USA… pic.twitter.com/sTM6iix7G9
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 2, 2024
However:
$750 ought to deal with it… pic.twitter.com/qaOlpWIpmp
— @amuse (@amuse) October 3, 2024
And:
Expensive Ukraine, for those who might ship just a few billion {dollars} to the Hurricane Helene victims, that might be nice! pic.twitter.com/d4i4IS15U4
— dianafrancisco (@dianafr55045805) October 3, 2024
I’m not sure that $750 would be the total fee. Nonetheless, directionally that is right: The empire issues orders of magnitude extra to our ruling class than the home inhabitants (although is under no circumstances the way in which a MAGA voter would categorical the matter). On the brilliant aspect, I can put the $750 in opposition to the $600 Biden nonetheless owes me, so I come out forward!
Kamala (D): “Tim Walz’s Lengthy Recreation Will Pay Off” [The Nation]. “The traditional instance of a slow-fuse debate second that ended up having an affect is Gerald Ford’s well-known gaffe in his 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. Heading off critiques that his overseas coverage was detached to the oppression of the USSR, Ford declared, “I don’t consider that the Poles contemplate themselves dominated by the Soviet Union.” Ford’s level was a delicate one: that even beneath Soviet rule, Poles had a spirit of resistance. However his wording made it sound like he was flippantly disregarding Soviet imperial domination of Japanese Europe…. Over the subsequent few days, the complete import of Ford’s phrases started to sink in, particularly after they have been highlighted time and again in press protection. The truth that Ford, removed from clarifying his remarks, stubbornly dug in solely made issues worse. Ford misplaced essential days in an election and solidified his status as an out-of-touch oaf…. Tuesday’s debate between JD Vance and Tim Walz is more likely to play out with the identical slow-fuse dynamic…. The moment polling finished after the talk reveals that it was mainly a wash…. However even these ballot numbers ought to be handled as preliminary, as a result of Walz very neatly performed an extended sport within the debate…. The important thing to Walz’s technique was to not go after Vance straight (since only a few voters care in regards to the vp); slightly, Walz acquired Vance to commit himself to certainly one of Trump’s most unpopular actions, inciting the January 6 assault on the Capitol (Walz’s damning “non-answer”). The Harris marketing campaign is correct to give attention to this trade. Much more than Gerald Ford’s Poland gaffe, it’s an error that illuminates—in an easy-to-understand approach—all the things flawed with a candidate. Vance’s feedback present not simply his personal ethical cravenness but additionally the way in which Trump has bullied all those that work with him into accepting the Huge Lie in regards to the 2024 marketing campaign. If the Harris marketing campaign and its surrogates hold pushing this clip, they will bathroom down the Trump marketing campaign for days if not weeks in defending the indefensible.” • Hmm. An outdated debate technique referred to as sand-bagging, though on this case the blow lands after the talk is over. Must be taking place already, with solely 33 days to go.
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Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “One Month Earlier than Election Day, Decide Chutkan Permits Jack Smith to Broadcast His Proof” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “Smith has argued, preposterously, that ‘the general public‘ — by which he means Democrats — has a proper to a speedy trial due to the significance of the Trump circumstances. On the contrary, the Structure offers solely the defendant a speedy-trial proper, which defendants could and incessantly do waive in the event that they want extra time to organize their protection (additionally a constitutional proper). The general public has an curiosity in a simply trial, not a immediate one — and there’s nothing nearly prosecutors’ submitting 4 indictments in opposition to their social gathering’s political rival with the target of attempting him earlier than Election Day in a way that offers him insufficient time to organize for trial, not to mention put together for 4 trials…. And as for the asserted significance of the circumstances, it lies of their political consequence (if any), which is an element that prosecutors and judges usually are not speculated to weigh; there are unambiguous Justice Division guidelines to this impact. For the umpteenth time, this isn’t to reduce Trump’s actions in reference to the 2020 election — the stop-the-steal scheme and the Capitol riot (for which I’ve repeatedly stated Trump was rightly impeached, and may have been convicted and disqualified from future workplace; and over which I’ve repeatedly argued that Republicans have been nuts to appoint him, versus a extra nationally viable candidate who, by now, could be ten factors up in opposition to Kamala Harris). It’s to emphasize that isn’t a legit law-enforcement or judicial precedence to drive a pre-election trial of these fees.” • On the Smith transient FWIW:
A little bit of tit for tat:
Final evening, Trump’s attorneys filed a movement asking Chutkan to permit them to file a equally extreme response to Jack Smith’s behemoth of an “immunity movement” and to increase deadline for submitting.
Trump’s response to Smith’s 165-page file is due Oct 17. pic.twitter.com/x4QTHgOWkT
— Julie Kelly 🇺🇸 (@julie_kelly2) October 3, 2024
Case for the protection (although final I checked, Rasmussen was a polling operation, so what’s up with this?
A lot of shrill noise immediately about 2020 election fraud. President Trump says 2020 was “rigged.” Proof collected by official state and court docket case investigations point out that it was. Proof hyperlinks by state are for readers under. Dig in. https://t.co/SchLyucrRV
— Rasmussen Stories (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 3, 2024
Trump (R) (Smith/Chutkan): “11 damning particulars in Jack Smith’s new transient within the Trump election case” [Politico]. “A lot of Smith’s transient targeted on Trump’s frame of mind within the weeks main as much as the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Smith described a slew of conversations suggesting that the then-president knew his claims of election fraud have been spurious. And Smith laid out proof that Trump’s sole goal was to remain in energy — not, as he and his attorneys have claimed, to train legit authority over election integrity.”
Trump (R): “Trump calls Jack Smith submitting ‘pure election interference’ ” [NewsNation]. “Former President Donald Trump referred to as the unsealing of paperwork in his election interference case by particular counsel Jack Smith a “weaponization of the federal government” throughout an unique interview with NewsNation on Wednesday in Houston, Texas. The Republican nominee was at a non-public fundraiser when he informed NewsNation’s Ali Bradley that Smith is a ‘deranged particular person’ following the dismissal of his separate categorized paperwork case in July. ‘This was a weaponization of the federal government … and launched 30 days earlier than the election,’ Trump stated of Wednesday’s developments. ‘My ballot numbers have gone up as an alternative of down. It’s pure election interference.’ The interview got here after prosecutors, in a court docket submitting unsealed Wednesday, stated Trump “resorted to crimes” after dropping the 2020 election by disregarding the recommendation of his vp and different aides.”
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Trump (R): “Trump floats deporting authorized Haitian migrants residing in Ohio” [Axios]. “Trump, talking to NewsNation in Houston, Texas, stated he would revoke the Non permanent Protected Standing (TPS) for Haitian immigrants and ‘deliver them again to their nation.’ ‘For my part, it’s not authorized. It’s not authorized for anyone to do,’ Trump stated. TPS is a federal program that permits migrants from some nations to legally dwell in the USA for a sure interval when the circumstances of their house nation are unsafe. Migrants from Haiti, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Venezuela are amongst some nations eligible for this system, requiring members to re-register with the Division of Homeland Safety every year. Haitians have been included within the TPS program since January 22, 2010, following a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that killed round 220,000 folks.” • For some definition of “authorized.” 2010 looks as if slightly a very long time in the past.
Trump (R): “Melania Trump says she compelled Donald to drop hardline immigration coverage” [Guardian]. “Concerning little one separations, she continues [in her book]: ‘Whereas I assist robust borders, what was happening on the border was merely unacceptable. I instantly addressed my deep considerations with Donald relating to the household separations, emphasizing the trauma it was inflicting these households. As a mom myself, I burdened: ‘The federal government shouldn’t be taking youngsters away from their mother and father.’ I communicated with nice readability … ‘This has to cease.’ ‘Donald assured me that he would examine the problem, and on 20 June, he introduced the tip of the household separation coverage.’ The primary girl’s intervention was reported on the time.”
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Kennedy (I): “Unique: A number of Girls Claiming Romantic Relationships With RFK Jr. Threaten His Standing in Trump Orbit” [Mediate]. “A minimum of three girls are claiming to have had romantic relationships with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in simply the final 12 months, as he pursued a long-shot bid for the presidency, Mediaite has discovered.” Properly, “three” is “a number of,” so. Extra: “Kennedy has lengthy been dogged by allegations of infidelity…. In an interview with The New York Solar, a number of days after Mediaite first reached out to Kennedy for remark, he was requested in regards to the information of his alleged relationship with Nuzzi. He declined to talk about that particular story, however joked to his host, ‘I’ve so many skeletons in my closet, if they may vote I’d be king of the world.’”
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“Abortion Rights, Elections, Prison Justice, and A lot Extra: The 2024 State Poll Points to Watch” [Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball]. ” This 12 months, 41 states have at the least one measure on the poll for voters to weigh in on, and lots of have a number of measures. The very best-profile concern on the poll this 12 months—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the poll, together with such purple and crimson states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska additionally has an anti-abortion measure on the poll.” • Huge roundup of all of the state ballots.
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CA: “Federal choose stops implementation of California misinformation legislation” [Courthouse News]. “A federal choose dominated Wednesday that California’s legislation prohibiting altered election-related communications doesn’t cross constitutional scrutiny and the state can’t implement it. The choice by U.S. District Senior Decide John Mendez to concern a preliminary injunction is a win for Christopher Kohls, identified on-line as “Mr. Reagan,” who argued in his lawsuit that Meeting Invoice 2839 made computer-generated parody unlawful. Assemblymember Gail Pellerin, a Santa Cruz Democrat, wrote the legislation banning digitally manipulated communications, like mailers and video adverts, which are false or deceptive and goal an election employee, elected official, voting gear or folks working for workplace 4 months earlier than an election. Individuals who obtain such content material would have the ability to search damages from the distributor. Kohls, who has some 360,000 YouTube subscribers, calls political satire a elementary First Modification proper. His go well with is just like one filed Monday in federal court docket by conservative humor web site The Babylon Bee, which focused two payments, certainly one of them being AB 2839. ‘We’re gratified that the district court docket agreed with our evaluation that new applied sciences don’t change the rules behind First Modification protections,’ Theodore Frank, certainly one of Kohls’ attorneys, stated in an announcement.”
MI: “Haunted by 2016, some Michigan Democrats fear that Harris stays ill-defined in swing state” [Associated Press]. “Democrats within the state have appeared ascendant since [2016], controlling the governorship, each Senate seats and the state legislature. However some social gathering leaders listed below are anxious that pattern shouldn’t be sufficient to place distance between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Harris’ marketing campaign is banking on the truth that they’ve spent significantly extra money than Trump on adverts and have a stronger voter outreach program. Michigan is a state that Harris virtually definitely should win to seize the White Home, and Democrats’ considerations are rooted within the concern that polls don’t register all Trump supporters each right here and in different battleground states because the marketing campaign enters a important ultimate part.” And the Muslim/Uncommitted vote: “The demise of a Dearborn resident, who Dingell and different group leaders this week stated was killed in south Lebanon, has solely ignited anger within the historically Democratic space. Kamel Ahmad Jawad’s demise was confirmed Wednesday by a spokesperson for the White Home’s Nationwide Safety Council…. Harris could overcome divisions throughout the Democratic coalition by boosting voter turnout in Wayne County, house to Detroit, the place low turnout in 2016 contributed to Clinton’s loss. Black group leaders famous that pleasure surged when Harris entered the race in the summertime, and that some momentum continues within the majority-Black metropolis of Eastpointe, simply north of Detroit.” Curiously: “‘Democrats’ monetary assets completely dwarf something that the Republicans have,’ stated former Republican Michigan Gov. John Engler. “However Trump is making stops in areas which have by no means had presidential visits earlier than, and people are impactful with margins this shut.”
NC: “How Will Hurricane Helene Have an effect on This Wildly Shut Election?” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. On North Carolina: “Clearly individuals who have misplaced properties or different possessions to excessive winds and (particularly) flooding and/or who lack energy or different necessities for an prolonged time frame are particularly depending on emergency help and could also be grateful if it arrives expeditiously. Past for these instantly affected, the perceived competence and compassion of presidency entities coping with catastrophe aid and restoration efforts can have an effect on how voters assess these in workplace, significantly in a high-profile scenario like that created by Helene. An American Enterprise Institute research of [Hurricane] Sandy prompt that the Obama administration’s response to the storm was a significant factor within the incumbent’s potential to win late deciders in 2012, topped by this discovering: ‘Absolutely 15 p.c of the voters rated Obama’s hurricane response as a very powerful issue of their vote.’ On the different finish of the spectrum, the George W. Bush administration’s tardy, confused, and seemingly detached response to the calamity of Hurricane Katrina in August and September of 2005 had an enduringly destructive impact on perceptions of his presidency, regardless that it occurred nowhere near a nationwide election, as Reid Wilson defined… Whereas FEMA and HUD are usually the federal companies most concerned in catastrophe response and restoration, presidential management in a catastrophe at all times will get consideration, too, and the danger of destructive publicity or graphic shows of unmet wants received’t go away instantly. Bureaucratic backlogs in distributing funds and approving functions for help might trigger voter unhappiness lengthy after the preliminary harm is addressed. The underside line is that barring sudden developments or a significant collection of screwups within the federal response, Hurricane Helene is more likely to mark an enormous second within the lives of individuals in and close to the areas of devastation however most likely received’t a lot have an effect on their voting conduct. Clearly the campaigns and their allies might want to modify their get-out-the-vote operations and present some sensitivity to the struggling of individuals whose lives have been turned the other way up. We are able to solely hope the election itself and its aftermath don’t add violence and trauma to the harm finished.” • These questions may be answered empirically, at the least in North Carolina, by reporting on roads being open, precincts open, and other people’s reactions typically. In fact, the press must go exterior Asheville to do that, so solutions appear unlikely.
PA: “Within the presidential election’s most necessary state, the race is a useless warmth” [Brookings]. “In 2024, all roads result in Pennsylvania, the most important of the seven swing states. Possibly, the winner of the state will win the election. It’s the state that every candidate can least afford to lose. If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania in addition to Michigan and Wisconsin, she may have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the contested southern and southwestern states. If Donald Trump wins Pennsylvania in addition to Georgia and North Carolina, he may have 270 electoral votes, no matter occurs within the southwest or the higher Midwest… Harris’ path to victory in Pennsylvania faces a key hurdle: The Democratic benefit in voter registration has continued the erosion that started proper after the Obama surge of 2008. Since 2020, the Democratic edge has been reduce in half, from 686,000 to simply 343,000, whereas Republican and Unbiased registration has continued to extend. As a share of the whole voters, Republican registration rose from 39.0% in 2020 to 40.2% this 12 months whereas the Democratic share fell from 46.5% to 44.1%, lowering the Democratic edge from 7.5 factors to three.9 factors.”
PA: “One other ‘Arduous Tie’ within the Race for President in PA” [RealClearPennsylvania]. “Unbiased voters say that Trump could be higher for his or her private funds by a 50–38% margin. For the reason that high concern for all voters stays the financial system, that’s benefit Trump. The following most necessary concern to voters is threats to democracy, adopted by immigration. Pennsylvania is on a razor’s edge in each the presidential and Senate races.” • Attention-grabbing, that #2.
Realignment and Legitimacy
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
Lambert right here: Eventually, the wastewater information seems improved. Apparenltly, we dodged a “Again to College” bullet, at the least on the nationwide stage. The wastewater drop is bolstered by the positivity numbers as effectively.
Wastewater
This week[1] CDC September 23
Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):
Variants [3] CDC September 28
Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC September 21
Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, information October 1:
Nationwide [6] CDC September 7:
Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens September 30:
Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic September 26:
Vacationers Information
Positivity[9] CDC September 9:
Variants[10] CDC September 9:
Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11]CDC September 21:
Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12]CDC September 21:
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others usually are not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (CDC) This week’s wastewater map, with scorching spots annotated. A lot much less intense!
[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* extremely popular. XEC has entered the chat.
[4] (ED) Down, however price noting that Emergency Division use is now on a par with the primary wave, in 2020.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Positively down.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC).
[7] (Walgreens) Huge drop continues!
[8] (Cleveland) Dropping.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up, although lagged.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants).
[11] Deaths low, positivity down.
[12] Deaths low, ED down.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of folks claiming unemployment advantages within the US rose by 6,000 from the earlier week to 225,000 on the interval ending September twenty eighth, surpassing market expectations of 220,000 to mark a brand new three-week excessive. The rise in claims saved preliminary counts above the averages recorded earlier this 12 months, reinforcing the pattern of a softening labor market and supporting predictions that the Federal Reserve will implement price cuts in every remaining determination this 12 months.”
Employment SItuation: “United States Challenger Job Cuts” [Trading Economics]. “US employers introduced 72,821 job cuts in September 2024, barely down from 75,891 in August, however 53% increased than 47,457 a 12 months earlier. Know-how introduced essentially the most job cuts….”
Manufacturing: “United States Manufacturing facility Orders” [Trading Economics]. “New orders for US manufactured items eased by 0.2% from the earlier month to $590.4 billion in August of 2024, trimming the downwardly revised 4.9% leap within the earlier month, and lacking forecasts that it will have remained unchanged.”
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“Everybody Is Getting the Dockworkers Strike All Improper” [Salon]. “Sure, it’s a narrative about modern-day labor anxieties and union leverage—but it surely’s additionally about one thing way more complicated than your typical workers-vs.-bosses toss-up…. However the dockworkers of immediately must be expert, educated, and dexterous sufficient to make sure that the incoming freight vans, the hefty gear, the possibly hazardous cargo, and the boats themselves function safely and easily all through all steps of the method… That premium on ability and labor, added to the union’s historic energy, makes these dockworkers ‘the highest-paid blue-collar employees within the nation,’ because the American Prospect notes… The primary sticking level, nevertheless, is displacement. The enterprise pursuits in control of the ports need to embed extra self-propelling expertise inside dock work, whether or not that constitutes automated vans, gates, or cranes. This pattern has taken off at dozens of ports internationally. Nonetheless, a number of research and real-world examples have proven that full or semi-automation doesn’t really do a lot to scale back prices or enhance effectivity on the docks, though in sure functions, it might assist to make sure human security. And therein lies one other main battle about tech on the docks: The Maritime Alliance is taken with leaving some leeway for automation, however the dockworkers need completely none. The work could also be grueling, but it surely’s among the many few organized blue-collar professions that may provide its staff a strong way of life and dignity.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing Jet Catches Hearth Earlier than Takeoff, Prompting Airport Closure” [Men’s Journal]. “Nearly 200 vacationers have been evacuated from a Boeing jet as partitions of flames spewed from one of many engines, video shared to X (previously Twitter) reveals. The incident occurred early on Wednesday morning at Italy’s Brindisi Airport shortly earlier than a Boeing 737 operated by Ryanair was scheduled to take off. Smoke stuffed the cabin as crews rapidly responded and evacuated the jet, however not earlier than one passenger captured footage of the flames licking the airplane’s window.” • Whoops. (Reuters mentions “fumes.”)
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Frail Funds Give Strikers All of the Energy” [Bloomberg]. “The corporate is in a dire monetary place, burning by billions of {dollars} of money and teetering on the edge of getting its credit standing reduce to junk. The corporate has floated the concept of elevating $10 billion or extra by promoting shares, which wouldn’t occur till the strike is resolved. The roughly 33,000 machinists on strike know this. Time is on their aspect. … Boeing wants to achieve a cope with its placing employees and crank up plane manufacturing. The backlog of plane orders is piling up. That is money and monetary aid simply ready to be unlocked. Little question a hefty pay increase will squeeze future revenue margins, but it surely’s unlikely the corporate, being in reminiscent of weakened state, can outlast the dedication of its employees…. It’s time for brand spanking new Chief Govt Officer Kelly Ortberg to settle this strike and start to restore labor relations. With out buy-in from its workforce, the corporate can’t start to alter a factory-floor tradition that had eroded on security and high quality to the purpose the place the Federal Aviation Administration needed to intervene.”
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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 67 Greed (earlier shut: 68 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 68 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 3 at 1:53:13 PM ET.
Zeitgeist Watch
Certainly not?
pal noticed this man on the apps lol pic.twitter.com/NuwYYp4CNv
— mindy🌷 (@mindyisser) October 3, 2024
Gallery
For Alma-Tadema stans, thread price studying in full:
This can be a 1436 portray by Flemish grasp Jan van Eyck, of Mary, Jesus, and saints.
You would possibly suppose it is simply an bizarre devotional portray — suppose once more… pic.twitter.com/lgcGoYNnu9
— Tradition Critic (@Culture_Crit) October 2, 2024
Groves of Academe
“College students and college object to UCLA’s buy of extra army {hardware}” [Los Angeles Public Press]. “The College of California Regents permitted the acquisition of army gear at September’s UC Regents assembly at UCLA. The unanimous vote passed off behind closed doorways whereas the UCLA Police Division (UCPD), wearing riot gear, compelled those that got here to provide public remark exterior of the constructing. The permitted purchases embody 3,000 rounds of pepper munitions, 500 rounds of 40mm affect munitions, 12 drones, and 9 less-lethal launchers throughout six College of California campuses.” • Oh.
Information of the Wired
No:
Name me old style, however I believed we’d just about sorted the design of the cup. pic.twitter.com/zP1tmG9Mtd
— Henry Moeran (@henrymoeranBBC) October 2, 2024
Make that holder coin-operated, and also you’ve acquired a rentier’s cup.
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Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “That is a type of which may drive you loopy. Vertical strains are right and even the horizontal railing is sweet, however the breakwater simply above it offers an phantasm of off-kilterness (phrase?).” Readers?
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Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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